Bracketology-ology: a Report Card

Selection Monday revealed that the selection committee this year was a little bit more closely aligned with RPI than in years past. Unlike last year's at-large picks of UA Little Rock and UW Green Bay (two teams that received automatic bids this year), there weren't any teams selected that one could really argue were long shots. The team with the lowest RPI selected for an at-large bid was Purdue (49).

So how did the S-Factor stack up this year to the experts?

The S-Factor missed only three teams this year (Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Vanderbilt), which isn't too bad. But of course total number of teams in the tournament is only part of the mission of the S-Factor.

The S-Factor was better at predicting seeds than any other predictor, human or computer. Charlie Creme, ESPN's legendary bracketologist, correctly predicted the seeds of 31 teams, but the S-Factor did him one better with 32.

Other metrics of comparison are shown in the tables below. There were 21 predictions that I could find this year. I assigned a point total to each prediction corresponding to its ranking for each category. The point system works similar to the AP poll: the first place prediction gets 21 points, the second gets 20, and so on. These points were then tallied to determine an overall bracketology champion, shown at the end of this post.

The 21 bracket predictions are as follows:

1. Rating Percentage Index. Compiled by Jerry Palm.
2. Jeff Sagarin ratings; a synthesis of the ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS models. Compiled by Jim Sukup.
3. Sagarin ELO CHESS (see above)
4. Sagarin PURE POINTS PREDICTOR (see above)
5. Kenneth Massey's ratings
6. Stephen Jens
7. Sonny Moore's computer power rankings
8. Cody Kirkpatrick's ratings using David Wilson's method (talismanred.com)
9. Sportheory
10. RealTimeRPI.com - RPI rankings (which differ from Palm's)
11. RealTimeRPI.com - power rankings
12. pilight's points only - pilight's field of 64 model without the exceptions, such as for teams that are sub .500 in conference
13. Warren Nolan's power index
14. The S-Factor

Actual bracket predictions:

15. Charlie Creme
16. Jerry Palm
17. pilight's field of 64
18. RealTimeRPI's bracket
19. my bracket prediction

Polls - including the additional votes

20. AP poll
21. ESPN Coaches poll



Metric 1: predicted teams that actually made the tournament:

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	RealTime RPI (RPI)	63	98.4%	21
2	College Women's Hoops official bracket	62	96.9%	20
2	Jerry Palm	62	96.9%	20
2	RPI (Palm)	62	96.9%	20
5	Charlie Crème	61	95.3%	17
5	RealTime RPI bracket	61	95.3%	17
5	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	61	95.3%	17
5	Ken Massey	61	95.3%	17
5	pilight points only	61	95.3%	17
10	pilight's field of 64	60	93.8%	12
10	Sagarin	60	93.8%	12
10	Sagarin ELO Chess	60	93.8%	12
10	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	60	93.8%	12
14	Stephen Jens	59	92.2%	8
14	Sonny Moore	59	92.2%	8
14	Sportheory	59	92.2%	8
17	RealTime RPI (Power)	58	90.6%	5
17	Sagarin Pure Points	58	90.6%	5
19	Warren Nolan	55	85.9%	3
na	AP poll	na	na	0
na	ESPN/Coaches poll	na	na	0

Metric 2: predicted teams correctly seeded (entire field)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	32	50.0%	21
2	Charlie Crème	31	48.4%	20
3	College Women's Hoops official bracket	29	45.3%	19
3	Sagarin	29	45.3%	19
5	Jerry Palm	28	43.8%	17
5	Ken Massey	28	43.8%	17
5	Sagarin ELO Chess	28	43.8%	17
5	Stephen Jens	28	43.8%	17
9	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	27	42.2%	13
10	RealTime RPI (RPI)	25	39.1%	12
10	RPI (Palm)	25	39.1%	12
12	pilight points only	24	37.5%	10
13	Sportheory	23	35.9%	9
14	Sonny Moore	21	32.8%	8
15	Sagarin Pure Points	19	29.7%	7
16	pilight's field of 64	18	28.1%	6
17	ESPN/Coaches poll	15	23.4%	5
17	RealTime RPI bracket	15	23.4%	5
17	RealTime RPI (Power)	15	23.4%	5
20	AP poll	12	18.8%	2
20	Warren Nolan	12	18.8%	2

Metric 3: predicted teams seeded within one seed of actual result (entire field)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	56	87.5%	21
2	Charlie Crème	54	84.4%	20
3	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	53	82.8%	19
4	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	51	79.7%	18
4	Sagarin ELO Chess	51	79.7%	18
6	Jerry Palm	50	78.1%	16
7	Ken Massey	46	71.9%	15
7	RPI (Palm)	46	71.9%	15
9	Sagarin	45	70.3%	13
9	RealTime RPI (RPI)	45	70.3%	13
9	RealTime RPI bracket	45	70.3%	13
12	Sportheory	43	67.2%	10
12	Sagarin Pure Points	43	67.2%	10
14	pilight points only	41	64.1%	8
14	pilight's field of 64	41	64.1%	8
16	Stephen Jens	39	60.9%	6
17	Sonny Moore	36	56.3%	5
18	RealTime RPI (Power)	31	48.4%	4
19	AP poll	29	45.3%	3
20	Warren Nolan	27	42.2%	2
21	ESPN/Coaches poll	22	34.4%	1

Metric 4: predicted teams correctly seeded (top 12 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	Charlie Crème	26	54.2%	21
2	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	23	47.9%	20
2	College Women's Hoops official bracket	23	47.9%	20
4	Sagarin	22	45.8%	18
4	Ken Massey	22	45.8%	18
6	Jerry Palm	21	43.8%	16
6	Sagarin ELO Chess	21	43.8%	16
6	Stephen Jens	21	43.8%	16
6	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	21	43.8%	16
10	RPI (Palm)	19	39.6%	12
11	RealTime RPI (RPI)	18	37.5%	11
11	pilight points only	18	37.5%	11
13	Sportheory	17	35.4%	9
14	ESPN/Coaches poll	15	31.3%	8
15	Sonny Moore	14	29.2%	7
16	Sagarin Pure Points	13	27.1%	6
17	pilight's field of 64	12	25.0%	5
17	AP poll	12	25.0%	5
19	RealTime RPI bracket	11	22.9%	3
19	RealTime RPI (Power)	11	22.9%	3
21	Warren Nolan	8	16.7%	1

Metric 5: Predicted teams within one seed of actual result (top 12 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	42	87.5%	21
2	Charlie Crème	40	83.3%	20
2	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	40	83.3%	20
4	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	38	79.2%	18
4	Sagarin ELO Chess	38	79.2%	18
6	Jerry Palm	36	75.0%	16
7	Sagarin	33	68.8%	15
7	Ken Massey	33	68.8%	15
7	RPI (Palm)	33	68.8%	15
7	RealTime RPI (RPI)	33	68.8%	15
7	RealTime RPI bracket	33	68.8%	15
12	Sportheory	32	66.7%	10
13	pilight points only	31	64.6%	9
13	pilight's field of 64	31	64.6%	9
15	Sagarin Pure Points	30	62.5%	7
16	AP poll	29	60.4%	6
17	Stephen Jens	28	58.3%	5
18	Sonny Moore	27	56.3%	4
19	ESPN/Coaches poll	22	45.8%	3
20	RealTime RPI (Power)	19	39.6%	2
21	Warren Nolan	18	37.5%	1

Metric 6: predicted teams correctly seeded (top 6 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	17	70.8%	21
1	Charlie Crème	17	70.8%	21
3	Ken Massey	16	66.7%	19
3	Stephen Jens	16	66.7%	19
5	Sagarin	15	62.5%	17
5	RPI (Palm)	15	62.5%	17
7	Sagarin ELO Chess	14	58.3%	15
7	Jerry Palm	14	58.3%	15
9	ESPN/Coaches poll	13	54.2%	13
10	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	12	50.0%	12
10	Sonny Moore	12	50.0%	12
12	RealTime RPI (RPI)	11	45.8%	10
12	Sportheory	11	45.8%	10
12	AP poll	11	45.8%	10
15	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	10	41.7%	7
15	pilight points only	10	41.7%	7
15	pilight's field of 64	10	41.7%	7
15	RealTime RPI (Power)	10	41.7%	7
19	RealTime RPI bracket	8	33.3%	3
19	Sagarin Pure Points	8	33.3%	3
21	Warren Nolan	7	29.2%	1

Metric 7: predicted teams seeded within one seed of actual result (top 6 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	24	100.0%	21
1	Charlie Crème	24	100.0%	21
3	Sagarin ELO Chess	23	95.8%	19
3	Jerry Palm	23	95.8%	19
3	AP poll	23	95.8%	19
6	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	22	91.7%	16
6	RealTime RPI (RPI)	22	91.7%	16
6	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	22	91.7%	16
9	RPI (Palm)	21	87.5%	13
9	Sportheory	21	87.5%	13
11	pilight points only	20	83.3%	11
11	pilight's field of 64	20	83.3%	11
11	RealTime RPI bracket	20	83.3%	11
14	Ken Massey	19	79.2%	8
14	Sagarin	19	79.2%	8
16	Stephen Jens	18	75.0%	6
16	ESPN/Coaches poll	18	75.0%	6
18	RealTime RPI (Power)	17	70.8%	4
18	Sagarin Pure Points	17	70.8%	4
20	Sonny Moore	16	66.7%	2
21	Warren Nolan	14	58.3%	1

______________________________

The overall winner? My bracket guess! Bested Charlie Creme by 3 points.

And once again, the College Women's Hoops S-Factor beats all other computer predictions.

Bracketology-ology Final Summary

rank	metric no.--->	1	2	3	4	5	6	7		sum of pts
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	20	19	21	20	21	21	21		143
2	Charlie Crème	17	20	20	21	20	21	21		140
3	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	17	21	18	20	18	12	16		122
4	Jerry Palm	20	17	16	16	16	15	19		119
5	Sagarin ELO Chess	12	17	18	16	18	15	19		115
6	Ken Massey	17	17	15	18	15	19	8		109
7	RPI (Palm)	20	12	15	12	15	17	13		104
8	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	12	13	19	16	20	7	16		103
9	Sagarin	12	19	13	18	15	17	8		102
10	RealTime RPI (RPI)	21	12	13	11	15	10	16		98
11	Stephen Jens	8	17	6	16	5	19	6		77
12	pilight points only	17	10	8	11	9	7	11		73
13	Sportheory	8	9	10	9	10	10	13		69
14	RealTime RPI bracket	17	5	13	3	15	3	11		67
15	pilight's field of 64	12	6	8	5	9	7	11		58
16	Sonny Moore	8	8	5	7	4	12	2		46
17	AP poll	0	2	3	5	6	10	19		45
18	Sagarin Pure Points	5	7	10	6	7	3	4		42
19	ESPN/Coaches poll	0	5	1	8	3	13	6		36
20	RealTime RPI (Power)	5	5	4	3	2	7	4		30
21	Warren Nolan	3	2	2	1	1	1	1		11

Final 2011 S-Factor

The final College Women's Hoops S-Factor is now up. I can assure you it will not be 64 for 64 this year. Old Dominion leaped back up into the predicted at-large bids due to James Madison poking into the top 25 of RPI rankings, and thus giving ODU another top 25 win, which was just enough to give them the second-to-last at-large spot in the S-Factor despite their abyssmal RPI (70th).

The most likely team to replace them will be Vanderbilt. The Commodores never quite impressed this season, but their 30th RPI combined with the fact that they went 10-6 in the SEC conference ought to be enough to assure them a spot in the field.

There will likely be a few other replacements between the S-Factor's predicted brackets and the actual brackets to be announced tonight, but Old Dominion-for-Vanderbilt is one I'm 99.9% positive about.

________________

Now in: Old Dominion
Now out: Arizona

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
WAC: 2
Colonial: 2

Final Bracket Guess

The final bracket guess is up on the Bracket Prediction page.

Penultimate S-Factor

The penultimate College Women's Hoops S-Factor is up. It includes all the correct automatic bids and only lacks the final RPI numbers for the season.

____________________

Now in: Prairie View A&M, Fresno State, Hartford, Montana, Gardner Webb, Utah, UC Davis, Central Florida, Bowling Green
Now out: Southern U, Boston U, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly, Liberty, BYU, Toledo, TCU, Old Dominion

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
WAC: 2

March 11 Bracket Prediction

There's a new bracket prediction up. It takes into account Friday afternoon's upsets of Toledo, BYU and Houston.

The final bracket prediction will probably be up on Monday morning.

Pac 10 Tournament Chances

The Pac 10 tournament is down to the semifinals. Arizona will face top seeded Stanford, while California will face second seeded UCLA. As for the Pac 10's third and fifth seeds, they lost last night. Layshia Clarendon of California had 46% of her teams points (22) as the Bears beat third-seeded Arizona State 48-43. Senior Ify Ibekwe got a double-double and was one of three Wildcats to score in double figures as Arizona took down USC 72-61.

The rest of the Pac 10's tournament prospects break down like this. Most bracketologists put Stanford in the tournament as a No. 1 seed and UCLA in as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

The third place finisher in the regular season, Arizona State, has looked really bad recently. But it would be hard to deny a team that finished 11-7 in conference with an RPI of 39 and a victory over DePaul earlier in the season, despite the fact that in three of their last five games they have been unable to score more than 50 points.

USC has had a relatively high RPI for most of the season, but the glory days of 2010 led to a disappointing conference season in 2011. And 10-8 in the Pac 10 is about equivalent to 7-9 in the Big 12. They needed to at least get to the semis to have a decent shot at the NCAA Tournament.

California, at 7-11 in conference, lost way too many games that they should have won, and so an at-large bid is probably not in their future.

Three teams may be all the Pac 10 gets. But the College Women's Hoops S-Factor now puts Arizona in the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid for the first time since January 6, 63 days ago! (Check the chart out). No other team with a predicted at-large bid even comes close in terms of most time spent below the at-large line after having been above the line previously (Kansas State's 38 days in purgatory is second). And of all the non-Stanford, non-UCLA teams in conference, Arizona has had the best run over the last month, winning eight out of their last nine games. Which is a huge turnaround from having gone 2-7 in the nine games previous to that. They are peaking at exactly the right time.

________________

Now in: Arizona
Now out: Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Host Schools and the Mountain West Tournament

In the Mountain West tournament, there are four teams remaining: conference leader BYU, conference contender TCU, and New Mexico and Utah. If there was a pre-season poll picking the top four in the Mountain West, these teams would probably have been on that list. But New Mexico and Utah have already had to win two games in the staggered-format Mountain West tournament just to get to this point.

Utah, the 5-seed in the Mountain West tournament, is 14-16 this year (7-9 in conference). New Mexico, the 7-seed, is 13-17 and only won five conference games heading into the tournament.

Needless to say, both teams are ineligible for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

But both teams play host to NCAA first and second round games this year. It is common now to have host teams that don't make the NCAA tournament, but the relative geographic isolation of these two schools makes for a real problem in terms of attendance. By comparison the first and second round host site at the University of Virginia, another host school that will not get an at-large bid to the tournament, has the potential to draw a few teams within a couple hundred miles of the site: Hampton, Liberty, Georgetown, West Virginia, Navy, maybe some North Carolina teams. The nearest likely tournament eligible team to Albuquerque is probably Texas Tech, 320 miles away. And besides BYU, the next nearest likely tournament eligible team to Salt Lake City is probably Northern Colorado at nearly 500 miles. And it's not like Bears fans are known for traveling in large numbers for long distances.

But what luck for tournament organizers should New Mexico win the MWC Tournament! A home game for one of the best-attended sites in women's basketball would mean the potential for profit. Even in this less-than-stellar year for the Lady Lobos, the Pit has not hosted a game attended by fewer than 7,000 people. Now all that New Mexico has to do is win two more games...

_______________

Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Small Conference Power Teams

Ain't it funny how the teams from small conferences that always get into the tournament ... always get into the tournament? The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are in the tournament once more despite finishing four games behind conference regular season champ Oral Roberts. South Dakota State beat Oakland in the Summit League championship last night 61-54.

But maybe the perception that power teams from small conferences always get into the tournament ... is merely a perception. UC Santa Barbara has gone to the NCAA tournament for 11 out of the last 14 years. The Gauchos came into the Big West tournament as the top seed. In tournaments past, the top seed would get a two round bye and would only need to win two games in order to win the tournament, like how the Mountain West Conference and the West Coast Conference do it. This year the Big West tournament went back to a more traditional structure where the winner would need three wins regardless of seeding. Unfortunately for UC Santa Barbara, they would not even get one win, as the 8th-seeded Pacific Tigers took the Gauchos out of the tournament early.

And in other conference tournaments, Connecticut was able to wrap up the top #1 seed in the NCAA tournament by beating Notre Dame last night in the Big East tournament championship.


_________________________

Now in: South Dakota State
Now out: Oakland

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Will Middle Tennessee Get Left Out?

With the exception of the Ivy League, regular seasons are now all over, and many conference tournaments have already concluded. We've already had some conference tournament upsets and at least one spectacular half-court game-winning buzzer-beater (Stetson). But we've also had teams crushing all conference opposition (Marist, Gonzaga).

But Middle Tennessee State isn't among the winners this week. The team is still mourning the loss of Tina Stewart, their junior guard who got stabbed to death by her roommate. The Blue Raiders lost in the first round of the Sun Belt tournament to Arkansas State 72-66. In ordinary situations, Middle Tennessee State would be at risk of being left out of the NCAA tournament with a resumé like theirs (RPI 46, 14-2 in the Sun Belt conference, best wins are James Madison and Kansas State). But I think they have a good chance of landing an at-large bid this year, in part because the selection committee is made up of humans with hearts rather than computers with cold hard data.

_____________________________

Now in: Boston University, TCU, Southern Cal, Samford, UT-Martin, Oakland, Stetson
Now out: UMBC, Duquesne, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, Tennessee Tech, Oral Roberts, East Tennessee State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

It's March: Bubbles are Already A-Poppin'

Sometimes the bubble just takes care of itself.

The beginning of the major conferences' tournaments occured last night with the start of the ACC, Big Ten and SEC tournaments. While the top teams all had byes, many bubble teams had the opportunity to prove themselves worthy of NCAA tournament inclusion. And of those teams, many that were on the backside of the bubble to begin with played their way right out of contention.

In the ACC, Boston College was likely not going to be seventh team in the conference to get a bid, but the Eagles sealed their own fate by losing to upstarts N.C. State 71-70.

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin, a team whose conference record was tied for third best in conference but had a miserable non-conference season and craptacular RPI, lost to the worst team in the Big Ten, Illinois, 63-56.

In the SEC, Arkansas was a team opposite of Wisconsin; that is, a team whose non-conference season was stellar, but only managed to win 6 out of 16 games in the SEC. The Razorbacks popped their own bubble for good by losing to Florida 68-59.

All three of these games were upsets that showed why Boston College, Wisconsin and Arkansas were considered outsiders to the NCAA tournament to begin with. Arkansas coach Tom Collen stated that the Razorbacks "are going to benefit from games like this somewhere down the line." The only remaining stops down the line (besides a Tarheel-style pre-tournament tune-up game against SIU-Edwardsville) are in the WNIT.

EDIT:

Ooh, let's add Michigan to this list. Illinois up and beat the Wolverines this afternoon.
____________________

Now in: Vanderbilt, Old Dominion
Now out: Michigan, Arkansas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

K-State Finally Wins an Important Game

The penultimate round of regular season games in the Big 12 featured a surprise upset from Bramlage Coliseum: Kansas State gave Texas A&M their only non-Baylor loss of the regular season by beating the Aggies 71-67. And while it was senior night, the star of the game was sophomore Brittany Chambers who scored a career-high 35 points, the most for a Wildcat in a single game since Nicole Ohlde in 2000.

The huge win rocketed the Wildcats up into tournament contention according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, which now shows Kansas State in as a #9 seed. Next up for the Wildcats is a winnable game at Kansas on Saturday and the chance to go to a hard-to-deny record of 10-6 in conference, followed by what's likely to be a date with the worst team in the league, Nebraska, to open the Big 12 tournament. Kansas State should now be able to control their own tournament destiny by simply winning the games they should win, something that K-State has done quite well in conference season.

For Texas A&M, the loss meant the drop of one position in the S-Factor, but in reality it just means that their predicted #2 seed is not to be taken for granted. A first-round loss in the Big 12 tournament could result in the loss of that #2 seed.

___________________________

Now in: Kansas State, Texas
Now out: Vanderbilt, Kansas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3

An Unusual Night in the Big East

The Big East wrapped up its regular season last night, and what a finale it was! The highly-predictable, highly-stratified Big East experienced its first real bout of entropy of the season. South Florida (2-13 in conference before the game) beat 17th-ranked Georgetown. Cincinnati (1-14 in conference before the game) beat 20th-ranked Marquette. These were the margins of victory in five of the eight Big East games last night: 1, 2, 2, 3, 5.

One game that was not close was West Virginia's win over St. John's, 69-49. One day after dropping out of the AP rankings, and two days after head coach Mike Carey got T-ed up berating a female referee, the Mountaineers finally grabbed a win against a somewhat decent opponent and made it to 8-8 in conference (although they still only have three wins in their last ten games). They had a great run to start the season, and I think they did just enough in conference to keep their spot in the NCAA tournament, although a first round loss to Cincinnati would put that spot in jeopardy. The College Women's Hoops S-Factor puts West Virginia in as a 7-seed.

__________________


Now in: Kansas
Now out: Old Dominion

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3

East Coast Conferences' Regular Seasons are Over

There's a new bracket prediction up in celebration of the end of the regular season for many conferences.

Anybody want to play Ohio State right now? The Buckeyes are winners of their last six, including a road win at conference leader Michigan State and a 33-point blowout of Wisconsin, a team that has gone 10-6 in conference. They are finally peaking after such a terrible start, a start which resulted in Ohio State not attaining the Big Ten regular-season title for the first time in six years.

Another regular season streak came to an end officially this weekend. For the first time in eleven seasons, Chattanooga did not win the regular season title in the Southern Conference this year. Appalachian State took seventeen of their twenty scheduled SoCon games and the conference title. They will face either Davidson or the College of Charleston on March 4th to start the SoCon Tournament.

__________________

Now in: Northern Colorado, Michigan
Now out: Montana State, Texas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Gladiator Death Match Thursday

For bubble teams it seems like every game in late February is a test. For bubble teams playing other bubble teams, it seems like it's more of a gladiator death match where two contenders enter the arena, but only one comes out (still looking at a tournament bid).

There were two gladiator death match games last night: LSU versus South Carolina, and Southern California versus Arizona State. LSU and Arizona State came out on top last night, and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor rewards their performances with 10-seeds. For their losses, South Carolina remains outside the predicted at-large bids, while Southern Cal was thrust out to the "first four out" category.

But both teams with acronyms of USC have not quite been fed to the lions just yet. Of course anything can happen in their conference tournaments. South Carolina has a chance at a top-25 win against Vanderbilt this weekend, and Southern California has a chance to go 11-7 in the Pac-10, which is acceptable for an at-large resumé though not automatic by any means.

______________________

Now in: Texas, LSU
Now out: Southern California, Michigan

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Upset Wednesday

In women's college basketball, there aren't usually a whole lot of upsets on any given night. Which is why last night could be classified as "Upset Wednesday" with only two really big upsets: Louisville over no. 7 DePaul, and Colorado over no. 16 Oklahoma.

There were a couple of smaller upsets too. A Big 12 northern division team finally won a game on the home court of a Big 12 southern division team for the first time this year when Kansas beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater. And a struggling Duquesne got a much needed road victory over a good Charlotte team.

__________________

Now in: Navy, Vanderbilt, Arizona State
Now out: American, Kansas State, Texas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

The Best Conference

Which is the best conference?

There are arguments to be made for several. In terms of number of teams likely to go to the tournament, it would be hard to argue against the Big East. There are few bracket predictions that do not grant the Big East conference at least eight teams in the Big Dance (and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor says ten, but we'll see).

One might be able to argue the ACC is the best conference. Six teams, or half of the conference, is in the RPI top 25. Eight teams are in the top 50. And 9th place North Carolina State scored a big win last night against 12th ranked North Carolina, showing that at least the top 9 teams provide highly competitive matchups.

But 9 out of 12 isn't as good as 12 out of 12. One might be able to argue the Big 12 is the best conference. The Big 12 has the highest RPI of all the conferences, due in large part to the relative success of the bottom teams in the conference when measured against the bottom teams from other conferences. Every team in the Big 12 has at least one top 50 win, a feat shared by the ACC. But unlike the ACC, every team in the Big 12 has beaten at least one conference foe likely to be in the NCAA Tournament ...

Except Kansas State. Kansas State could get to 9-7 in conference without beating any conference opponent likely to go to the tournament. Which is why Kansas State would be unlikely to go to the NCAA Tournament with only a 9-7 record, while Texas Tech would have a much better chance at going to the tournament with a 7-9 conference record because of their world-shockin' court-stormin' win over top-ranked Baylor on Saturday.

________________________


Now in: American, UA Little Rock, Rutgers, Syracuse, Kansas State
Now out: Navy, Middle Tennessee State, Arizona State, LSU, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Tournament-Bound Breakdown by State

As of right now, the states with the most predicted women's NCAA tournament teams are Texas and Tennessee. But 27 states and the District of Columbia will also be represented by at least one tournament-bound team.

Tennessee	5
Texas	5
California	4
Louisiana	4
Pennsylvania	4
Virginia	4
Iowa	3
Maryland	3
North Carolina	3
Ohio	3
Florida	2
Georgia	2
Indiana	2
Kentucky	2
Michigan	2
New York	2
Oklahoma	2
Wisconsin	2
Arizona	1
Arkansas	1
Connecticut	1
District of Columbia	1
Illinois	1
Montana	1
New Jersey	1
Utah	1
Washington	1
West Virginia	1

________________________

Now in: Arizona State, Iowa State, Temple, UM Baltimore County
Now out: Boston U, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Rutgers

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

The Atlantic 10's Big Five; Plus Weird Big 12 Numbers

As I mentioned back in January, the Atlantic 10 is having a great year. Five teams have garnered predicted at-large bids in various bracket predictions: Xavier (of course), Temple, Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton. As of Tuesday, the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was predicting 4 Atlantic 10 teams would make the tournament.

But then Charlotte lost on Wednesday night against LaSalle and Duquesne lost a home game against St. Joseph's. It was not an uncharacteristic loss for Duquesne, but for Charlotte, it was their first conference loss against a team outside of the big five in the A10.

But it also pushed both Duquesne and Charlotte out of the top 50 in RPI. This meant that Temple, a team that is still undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference and is on a 13-game winning streak, lost two of their three top 50 wins, and so lost ground in the S-Factor rankings. But if Temple wins every game except for their regular season finale against Xavier, there is no chance they will not be rewarded with an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee.

It's interesting to look at the big five's record against each other.

Xavier: 3-0 with Duquesne and Temple left
Temple: 2-0 with Dayton and Xavier left
Duquesne: 1-1 with Xavier and Charlotte left
Charlotte: 1-2 with Duquesne left
Dayton: 0-4 with Temple left

That big doughnut in the win column for Dayton against the other big five teams will surely weigh heavily on the minds of the selection committee.

____________________________

Weirdness in the S-Factor in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech last night, and plummetted outside of the S-Factor's predicted at-large bids, while Texas Tech rose up 13 spots. Meanwhile, Kansas State got a routine win over Colorado and is now being shown at the cusp of the at-large bids.

But the S-Factor is more of a prediction of the tournament if the season ended right now, and it does not take into account the future schedule and predicted future wins. Texas Tech closes its regular season with 4 top 26 (RPI) games out of 5, while Iowa State will feast upon Big 12 north teams, and gets Texas at home. And conference record means a lot in the Big 12, the most difficult of all conferences from top to bottom. (Although probably not enough for Kansas State, who may be left to a WNIT bid if they go 9-7 in conference.)



Now in: Middle Tennessee State, USC, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Now out: UA Little Rock, Iowa State, Charlotte, Temple, Syracuse

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2

Tuesday, February 15

Now in: Old Dominion
Now out: Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
PAC-10: 2
Colonial: 2

Host Teams and the Brackets

There's a new bracket prediction up.

The first and second rounds of the women's NCAA tournament will be played at 16 predetermined sites hosted by 16 different schools. Unlike in the men's tournament, the women's tournament rules state that if a host school gets into the tournament, that school is required to play at its own site.

This year six out of the AP poll's top seven teams are slated to host: Baylor, Connecticut, Stanford, Tennessee, Xavier and Duke. Most brackets (including mine) seed these teams #1 and #2.

Since no other host team can be grouped with these teams, it means there will not be a host team seeded 8 or 9, and there may be fewer host teams seeded 7 or 10 than the S-curve would predict.

Could this have bracketing implications? Most definitely. The other host teams likely to make the field this year are Louisiana Tech, Penn State, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Maryland. Maryland looks like a lock for a 3, 4, 5, or 6 seed and would therefore be unaffected, but one of the other four may artificially move up or down depending on bracketing needs.

And I'm sure none of the other potential 2-seeds who are not hosting do not relish the thought of having to play a second round game on the road. I think it's fairly likely that one of the potential 2-seeds (Texas A&M definitely, maybe UCLA, Michigan State or Notre Dame) will end up playing in Columbus, OH; University Park, PA; or possibly even in Bossier City, LA or Spokane, WA.

Whatever the result, Texas A&M will surely be the best team in the tournament to be shipped 1000 miles away for their first two games. Bossier City (the closest first round site not located in Waco) would actually be the most attractive scenario for the Aggies.


Now in: Montana State, Charlotte, Temple, Southern California, Princeton, St. Francis (PA)
Now out: Northern Colorado, Harvard, Robert Morris, Arkansas, Arizona State, Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
PAC-10: 3

Friday

Now in: Northern Colorado, Syracuse
Now out: Northwestern, Montana State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Iowa State: Road Worriers

Iowa State is in trouble. The Cyclones' only top-50 RPI win so far this year was against Michigan on December 5th at home. Iowa State has now lost overtime games against Colorado and Kansas, teams that are certainly not in the top half of the Big 12 conference.

Worst of all, their road record is 2-5 (while their home record remains an impressive 11-1).

Iowa State is currently 4-5 in the conference at a time when most would have expected them to be at least 6-3.

But the good news is that Iowa State doesn't have to play Texas A&M, Baylor, or Oklahoma again in the regular season!


Now in: Boston College, Vanderbilt,
Now out: Syracuse, Kansas State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Six-Point Bounces: Earned and Unearned

There were two great games involving great teams last night: Tennessee escaped with a win over Kentucky, but RPI no. 1 Duke fell to North Carolina. In the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, Tennessee moved up to the number two position while Duke fell to the number four position. North Carolina, as would be expected, gained six positions to number 12 and a predicted 3 seed.

But the strangest S-Factor movement occured on the bubble. Despite not playing a game last night, Northwestern moved up six positions and is now shown in the field as an 11 seed. Their RPI did not budge.

The reason for the jump? Minnesota moved from RPI #101 to RPI #100, and LSU moved from RPI #51 to RPI #50. Northwestern has a loss to Minnesota that is no longer a sub-100 loss, and the Wildcats also have a win against LSU that is now a top 50 win.

North Carolina and Northwestern jumped by the same amount in one day. One could say that a numeric wiggle is just as important as a hard-fought win over a top-rated opponent. But it's not true: the latter is much more important than the former. Numbers are just funny that way.


Now in: Northwestern
Now out: Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Xavier's Artificial Slide

I was looking at these numbers today, and I wondered what the deal was with Xavier? Xavier remains undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference, and they had been slated by the College Women's Hoops S-Factor as a 3-seed last week (and for most of the season) and as a 2-seed two weeks ago. Their RPI remains high, no. 9 in the country. But Xavier plummeted to a 5-seed in the new calculation this morning.

The reason for this has nothing to do with Xavier's play. While it's true that the Musketeers struggled at Dayton on Saturday in an overtime victory over the Flyers, only wins and losses, not quality of play, are factored into the S-Factor.

The reason for Xavier's numeric slide is due to two teams that Xavier has beaten this season: Michigan and USC. Both teams had been just barely in the top 25 of RPI going into Thursday (the Wolverines at no. 21 and the Trojans at no. 25). Both teams lost games (Michigan to Penn State and USC to UCLA), and therefore both lost ground in the RPI rankings (Michigan is now no. 26, and USC is now no. 29). Which means Xavier, by no fault of their own, now has zero wins over top 25 teams. Thus, the drop in the rankings.


Now in: Liberty, James Madison, Harvard, Texas, Boston College
Now out: Radford, Old Dominion, Princeton, Texas Tech, Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Why the S-Factor is Cramming Ten Teams In From One Conference

The College Women's Hoops S-Factor shows ten of the sixteen Big East teams getting into the dance: Connecticut, DePaul, Georgetown, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's and Rutgers. This, frankly, is absurd.

The Big East chart shows the rigid stratification of the conference. Basically the Big East can be divided into 4 groups: the Connecticut Group, the Ranked Group, the Middling Group and the Big Least.

The Big Least is composed of six teams (Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and South Florida) who have gone a combined 6-43 in conference games. They have achieved zero wins against teams from the other groups.

The Connecticut Group is composed of three teams (Connecticut, DePaul, Notre Dame) who have combined for only one loss in an intragroup game (Notre Dame losing to Connecticut).

The most mixing occurs in the two middle groups; the Ranked Group (Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia), and the Middling Group (Rutgers, St. John's, Syracuse, Louisville). The Middling Group has achieved two wins over the Ranked Group (Rutgers over Georgetown, Syracuse over Marquette). These two wins have kept the Middling Group as a whole above the at-large bubble line in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Here is a table of the relative records against each other:

	C.Gr.	R.Gr.	M.Gr.	Least
Connecticut Group	1-1	4-0	7-0	13-0
Ranked Group	0-4	3-3	4-2	11-0
Middling Group	0-7	2-4	4-4	13-0
The Big Least	0-13	0-11	0-13	6-6

Besides those two wins previously discussed, there is no intergroup mixing of wins. And it is this oddly stratified configuration that is tricking the S-Factor into thinking there will be ten Big East teams in the tournament.


Now in: BYU, St. John's
Now out: Wyoming, Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Line Change in Automatic Bids

Texas A&M had yet another great game this weekend against Baylor at home in front of the largest crowd ever to witness a women's basketball game in College Station. This time though, the Aggies fell short by a score of 63-60. Odyssey Sims, the superstar freshman guard for Baylor, led the way with 25 points including the go-ahead bucket with 26 seconds left. Brittney Griner was held to "merely" 17 points and 12 rebounds. Baylor's win improved their RPI enough to move the Bears back into a predicted number 1 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Elsewhere in the country. this weekend saw ten conference leaders losing games, which led to seven new automatic bid placeholders.

1. In the Atlantic Sun, Campbell College took North Florida to two overtimes but couldn't pull off the win.

2. In the Big Sky, Montana beat in-state rival and conference leader Montana State in a revenge match from the previous week, when the Bears lost to the Bobcats at home.

3. In the Big South, former conference leader Gardner Webb lost to UNC Asheville by a point.

4. In the Big 10, former conference leader Michigan State was upended by Iowa.

5. In the MAC, Toledo emerged from a difficult week with the conference lead, after beating former conference leaders Kent State and Bowling Green.

6. In the Missouri Valley conference, Missouri State's loss to Creighton on Thursday stripped the Bears of the conference lead.

7. In one of the strangest results of the week, TCU, a team that was cruising towards an automatic bid, lost two games to the two teams with the worst records in the Mountain West; New Mexico and Air Force.

8. In the Patriot League, Navy lost to Colgate (Colgate's best win of the season), but Navy still retains the presumed automatic bid.

9. In the Southland Conference, McNeese State suffered their first loss of the conference season to Central Arkansas, but retains the conference lead.

10. Middle Tennessee State was tripped up by the Golden Panthers of Florida International, which means UA Little Rock now has the lead in the Sun Belt Conference.


Now in: Arizona State, Wyoming, Radford, East Tennessee State, Toledo, UA Little Rock, Northern Iowa
Now out: Northwestern, TCU, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Kent State, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The Danielle Show

In a spectacularly entertaining game to watch, Texas A&M squared off against Oklahoma last night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, and the Aggies walked off the court with a two-point squeaker of a win, 80-78.

Players named Danielle combined to score 64 of the 158 points. Neither Danielle Adams nor Danielle Robinson would give an inch; both players had more than 30.

But Danielle Adams was more dominant all around. Gary Blair had this to say to Sooner fans: "You all had Courtney Paris for four (years). I only get (Adams) for two."

The result moved Texas A&M up to a number 1 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, but a better predictor of a #1 seed will come this weekend for the Aggies. They face top-ranked Baylor at College Station on Sunday.

Now in: Kansas State
Now out: Arizona State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

It's Foe Week

One of the biggest unknowns in bracket prediction is trying to guess which small conference bubble teams are going to be in the tournament if those teams lose their conference tournaments. Teams like Gonzaga, Middle Tennessee, Bowling Green and Green Bay are all good teams. Their non-conference schedules have shown they can compete with the big conference teams, and in some cases win. But they have to be almost perfect against the conference spread if they want any sort of insurance policy against an unusual loss in their conference tournament.

These teams all have foes, teams from within their conference that are good enough to steal a win away. For Gonzaga the foe is usually St. Mary's, and this year is no exception. Middle Tennessee State's intra-conference foe is the very good team from Little Rock, which made the tournament last year as an at-large team to the surprise of many. Green Bay's foe is Butler this year; like Green Bay, Butler is undefeated in the Horizon. And the MAC has evolved to create two foes for Bowling Green this year: Kent State and Toledo both share Bowling Green's 5-1 conference record.

Foe games are important because they are the only challenges these elite small-conference teams have between December and March, a sparse data point or two for bracketologists.

This week is setting up to be quite a week for foe games. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's for the first time tomorrow, Bowling Green plays Toledo tonight for the only scheduled time this season, and Green Bay travels to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tomorrow to challenge Butler for sole Horizon League supremecy.

Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

If Womens Basketball Was Like Boxing

Bet you didn't know there was a title fight last night. 17th-ranked Miami had won 17 in a row coming in to last night's game against 22nd-ranked Florida State, but the Hurricanes lost in Tallahassee 66-59. If collegiate women's basketball worked like boxing, Florida State would now posess a number one seed.

To make this boxing analogy work, let's say that a title belt is equivalent to a #1 seed in the tournament. And let's assume that the top four teams in the preseason AP poll got to have the #1 seeds. These belonged to UConn, Baylor, Stanford and Tennessee on November 1st. Furthermore, let's say that every single game played is like when someone challenges a champion for his title. When Connecticut beat Baylor on November 16th, Connecticut assumed control of the 2nd #1 seed (let's call this the WBO belt). But when Connecticut lost to Stanford on December 30th, they gave up both their own belt (WBA, let's say) and the WBO belt.

If you follow this analogy, the #1 seeds today would be: Stanford, Stanford, Stanford and Florida State. See the chart below.

Because Smokin' Joe Tennessee's first loss was to Georgetown Foreman, and Georgetown's first loss after that was to Miami Ali, and Miami's first loss after that was to Florida State last night, Florida State now has the last #1 seed.

Obviously this has no bearing in reality. Washington State, worst BCS-conference team in the nation, briefly held the #1 seed when they beat Cal (who beat Arizona State, who beat DePaul, who beat Stanford). I guess they would be the Leon Spinks of womens basketball.



Now in: Southern University
Now out: Alabama A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The Lone Undefeated

A crazy come-from-behind win by Duke over North Carolina State on Sunday keeps the Blue Devils at the top of the College Women's Hoops S-Factor standings. Freshman Chelsea Gray's layup with 12 seconds left kept Duke's undefeated season alive for at least a few more days. (One week from today, Duke squares off with Connecticut.) With Florida Gulf Coast losing last week for the first time all season, Duke is now the only undefeated team in the nation, but they are ranked third in the country behind Baylor and Connecticut. Duke's stratospheric RPI is due in part to the fact that they have played and beaten seven top 25 RPI teams this year, the most in the country (second place is Connecticut at six, followed by Baylor and Stanford with four each).


Now in: Navy, Syracuse, Wisconsin
Now out: Army, St. John's, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The Trampoline Teams

Vanderbilt and LSU are two teams from the SEC that have been in and out of the College Women's Hoops S-Factor's predicted at-large bids. Well, more like in and out and in and out and in and out and in. Both the Commodores and the Tigers have crossed the line separating those in the tournament from those on the outside seven times, more than any other team (St. John's is next, having crossed the line four times).

Both LSU and Vanderbilt had wins last night, Vanderbilt's win over 23rd ranked Arkansas being more impressive than LSU's blowout of Ole Miss. Because of these wins, the S-Factor predicts both of these teams are back in the tournament. For now. LSU plays Florida this weekend, and Vanderbilt plays Kentucky. Vanderbilt has more to gain and less to lose from this weekend's matchup, but both Kentucky and Florida should present challenges to these trampoline teams.

Now in: Vanderbilt, LSU, Appalachian State
Now out: Creighton, Tulane, UNC Greensboro

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Polar Bears

Last night 1,486 devoted Jayhawk fans made the trek through a snowstorm to watch Kansas get walloped by Baylor 76-37 inside Phog Allen Fieldhouse. The number 1 team in the land was unchallenged; Baylor made Kansas look bad both offensively and defensively. Not only did Kansas have no answer for Brittney Griner (who does?), but they also had no answer for anyone else on Baylor's team. This loss kicks Kansas out of the presumed at-large bids according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

As I'm posting this in the afternoon, I already know there is going to be at least one game that messes with the S-Factor tomorrow. Arizona State just lost to Washington State. Arizona State is the weakest of the four Pac-10 teams projected by the S-Factor to make it into the tournament, and Washington State is one of the weakest major conference teams (second only to Oregon State). A loss to the Cougars certainly hurts Arizona State's chances at making the field of 64, although it remains to be seen if it hurts them that much.


Now in: Missouri State, Houston, Army
Now out: Vanderbilt, Kansas, American University

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
Missouri Valley: 2

Atlantic 10 Ruling; Mountain West Drooling

Of all the mid-major conferences (defined as conferences that are not the Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, Atlantic Coast and Southeast Conference), two of the 26 (counting the Great West) rank higher than all others in terms of the number of at-large bids garnered over the past few years: the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West. It seems like it's a rare year when the Atlantic 10 doesn't get three teams into the NCAA tournament, and the Mountain West is so full of parity that the annual conference tournament is often completely up for grabs.

But this year there is no question as to which conference is better. The Atlantic 10 is having a great year as a whole. As of right now, eight teams from the 14-team conference are ranked in the top 75 of RPI. Three Atlantic 10 teams are in Charlie Creme's field of 64, and two more are on the cusp. While the College Women's Hoops S-Factor only lists two, the S-Factor is unreasonably stingy to mid-major conferences at this point in the year. Xavier is being talked about as a 2 seed; Duquesne has been on everyone's list since they beat Ohio State; Temple, Charlotte and Dayton are all very close to being in the big dance; and St. Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, and Richmond have all been competitive in their biggest games.

The Mountain West, however, has been pretty weak as a conference whole. Many of the traditional powers are having off years. Both the Utes of Utah and the Lady Lobos of New Mexico lost a lot of games in a difficult non-conference schedule, but kept losing once the conference season began. San Diego State has achieved an 8-8 record so far with their best win coming against Dayton and a loss to the non-aligned Roadrunners of Cal State Bakersfield. BYU and Wyoming are the only two challengers to what is looking like a dominant run by TCU this year. Wyoming was crushed by TCU last week, and BYU travels to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs tonight. With only a single top-50-RPI win in the entire conference this season (that being TCU's victory over 50th ranked Oklahoma earlier this year), the Mountain West is looking like a one-bid conference this year.

Now in: Vanderbilt
Now out: Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Mid-Major Monday

Besides the drubbing of North Carolina by Connecticut, Monday was a quiet day for the big conference teams. But Mondays are always busy days for teams from small conferences. The conference leaders from the Big South (Liberty), the Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State) and the Northeast Conference (St. Francis (PA)) all lost on Monday. Their presumed automatic bids were taken over by Gardner Webb, Robert Morris, and the Camels of Campbell College.

In addition, due to daily RPI fluctuation, Charlotte and Missouri State traded places, which means the Bears are now slated for an at-large bid according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. Missouri State is having another good season, and they are at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings along with Creighton and Northern Iowa. Creighton is credited with the Valley's presumed automatic bid just because of inertia: they held the conference lead on their own more recently than the other teams.

Now in: Robert Morris, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Missouri State
Now out: East Tennessee State, St. Francis (PA), Liberty, Charlotte

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2

Ohio Stuff

The Big 12 had an exciting weekend as a conference. All twelve teams played in six games. Of those six games, four went to overtime. The two that didn't: Texas A&M and Baylor both blew out their opponents. Judging by the results so far in the first three rounds of Big 12 games, it's probably safe to say that anything can happen on any given day ... except for Baylor or Texas A&M losing, which probably won't happen unless they're playing each other.

Ohio State may have ended their long slump into mediocrity by beating Michigan State 67-53 and giving the Spartans their first conference loss and their first overall loss since Baylor way back in November.

Other big news in Ohio; Bowling Green lost to Kent State 44-43 in Mid America Conference action, Bowling Green's second loss of the season and the first since a rather fluky one point loss to the Purple Aces of Evansville at the beginning of the season. This means Bowling Green has lost by a combined two points in their two losses this season.

Now in: Kent State, St. John's, Ohio State, Charlotte
Now out: Bowling Green, California, LSU, Wisconsin

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3

Buckeyes Going Off the Rails

On Sunday, December 5th, 2010, 6th ranked and undefeated Ohio State walked off their home court in Columbus, Ohio after handing a game Oklahoma team its first loss of the season thanks in part to Jantel Lavender and her 32 points. It was a given that the Big Ten conference season was going to be Ohio State's to lose, again, for the seventh straight regular-season championship.

Since going off the court that day, Ohio State has gone off the rails. Ohio State has recorded three wins and six losses since that day. Last night Ohio State lost to Northwestern for the first time since 2000. The previous 19 games between the two teams had been won by the Buckeyes. And for the first time this season, Ohio State has lost its College Women's Hoops S-Factor-predicted at-large bid.

It won't get much easier for the Buckeyes. Thanks to the Big Ten's unusual number of teams, each team plays 6 of the other conference teams twice and 4 of them just once. The four teams Ohio State plays only once are the four worst teams in the league in terms of S-Factor ranking (Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin). Ohio State's next game is against conference leader Michigan State.

While Ohio State's difficult schedule will weigh on the minds of the selection committee, it will mean nothing if Ohio State can't crack .500 in the Big Ten conference (they're currently 1-3).



Now in: Cal Poly, East Tennessee State, Wisconsin, LSU
Now out: Lipscomb, UC Irvine, Ohio State, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

Better Sooner Than Later

Hey y'all, Oklahoma's back! The Sooners' ugly, zero-three-pointers victory over Kansas State gives them two wins to start the conference season, and they have now ascended back to a ranking of 39 and a predicted 10 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Other games of note:

• TCU rode into Laramie, Wyoming and absolutely demolished the Wyoming Cowgirls 68-47, which shifted the Mountain West's presumed automatic bid over to the Horned Frogs.
• Some other Cowgirls, those from McNeese State, did a little bit better. McNeese State ended Lamar's 21-game home winning streak with a 57-53 victory on a night Lamar was playing without their leading shot-blocker and rebounder Trashanna Smith. Lamar's senior guard and former Sooner Jenna Plumley scored 11 points.
• Connecticut routed St. John's last night in Madison Square Garden by a score of 84-52. The win put Connecticut back into the #1 position in the S-Factor, and also removed St. John's from the group of teams with predicted at-large bids.

Now in: TCU, Oklahoma, McNeese State, Vanderbilt
Now out: Wyoming, Lamar, Syracuse, St. John's

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

The Outliers

It's hard to tell which teams selected by the College Women's Hoops S-Factor are mistakes and which ones are legitimate since there is only one confirmation test per year. But when one compares the S-Factor to other rankings generated by humans and computers, one gets a sense of where the outliers are.

Clearly the S-Factor is having problems seeing the merit of teams from mid-major conferences. The Horizon League's Wisconsin-Green Bay is ranked in both national polls, Charlie Creme's week old bracket has them in as a 5 seed, and a collection of models (Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Steven Jens and Sonny Moore) puts the Phoenix somewhere around a 7 seed. Yet the S-Factor huffily bestows an automatic-only seed of 11. Bowling Green, out of the Mid America Conference, winners of 14 games in a row and very close to being nationally ranked, is getting an average of a 7 seed by the computers (Steven Jens thinks they're the 16th best team in the country). But the S-Factor deigns only to give them a 12 seed, and nothing at all if they lose their conference tournament.

There are also teams that the S-Factor is infatuated with. Michigan, despite dropping their last two games, shows up high in the S-Factor with a predicted 6 seed, which is 4 seeds higher than the nearest outside computer model (Sagarin) would have them. (The S-Factor really loves those wins over Ohio State and Iowa). Creme's bracket doesn't even show Michigan in the "last four out" category. Another Big Ten team much loved by the S-Factor is Penn State, a team both humans and computers agree should be seeded somewhere south of an 8 seed (if at all). But the S-Factor puts them as the highest of the 5 seeds.

Some teams that seem too highly ranked with regard to human polls and brackets are actually mostly in line with other computer rankings. DePaul (2), Marquette (3), Texas Tech (5) and Louisville (7) are all teams that get more respect from number crunching than from human prognosticators, and the S-Factor sides more with the computers. The S-Factor also agrees with computers when humans appear to be overly sympathetic to some teams, like Ohio State (9), Kentucky (9), Syracuse (10) and Boston College (10).

And then there's the curious case of Oklahoma. Charlie Creme has them as a 6 seed. The polls would have them in with a 4 seed. Looks good for them, right? But according to RPI, the Sooners aren't anywhere near being in the tournament. The computer models Massey, Sagarin, and Jens all put them about where the S-Factor does around the mid-forties. But Sonny Moore ranks them 12th in the country, which would correspond to a 3 seed. Crazy!


Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

New Feature!

Because I just love a good graph, I have introduced a timeline of College Women's Hoops S-Factor rankings for each team in the Big 12 conference. Just click on the Big 12 Chart tab at the top of the page. I will try to update this chart at the same time as I update the S-Factor table most every weekday. And I may even add other conferences very soon.



Now in: St. Francis (PA)
Now out: Sacred Heart

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Slouching Tigers, Rising Techsters

The first conference games for the Big 12 occured this past weekend, a very active weekend for almost every team. Iowa State started the conference season with arguably their hardest game, Baylor at Waco; the Cyclones lost. Texas failed to secure a win after leading Missouri by 12 points with under three minutes to go. And Texas Tech scored an important win over Kansas at Lawrence, propelling the Red Raiders up to a dubiously high 5-seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

One unusual game that had ramifications for many teams was on Thursday when LSU lost to South Carolina. The loss pushed the Tigers down out of the S-Factor-predicted at-large bids, but it also knocked LSU out of the top 50 in RPI.

Because of this, several teams that scored victories against LSU suddenly had a weaker strength of schedule. Tulane, most precipitously, dropped 28 spots in the S-Factor just because of the LSU loss (even though Tulane now has won 6 games in a row and is still slated in the S-Factor to get the automatic bid from Conference USA).

Ohio State and Northwestern, teams that have beaten LSU this year, dropped 15 spots and 5 spots respectively (although Ohio State's loss to Iowa on Saturday certainly doesn't help matters).

The biggest gainer from LSU's loss? Louisiana Tech. LSU had beaten the Lady Techsters earlier this year. It seems counterintuitive that an opponent that beat your team earlier in the year and now has a lower RPI than before can actually boost your team's ranking. But now instead of winning 2 out of 4 against top 50 teams, Louisiana Tech has won 2 out of 3. It's enough of a difference to lift Louisiana Tech 20 spots in the S-Factor. Sometimes the numbers are just crazy in Mid-Majoropolis.



Now in: California, Purdue, St. John's
Now out: LSU, Arizona, Texas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The New Regrettably Ineligible Atlantic Sun Teams

The Atlantic Sun conference for the past three years has sent East Tennessee State to the NCAA tournament, for in each of these years East Tennessee State has won the Atlantic Sun tournament. But excluded from participating in this tournament has been a relatively strong team from Florida Gulf Coast University.

Florida Gulf Coast today is one of only four teams in Division I that remain undefeated (the others are Duke, North Carolina and West Virginia). FGCU is getting votes in both the AP and the ESPN/USA Today Polls, and they have used their relatively short non-conference season (Atlantic Sun teams have to play 20 conference games) to beat Indiana, Seton Hall and Virginia Tech. But they, along with their Atlantic Sun conference mates from South Carolina Upstate, are ineligible to participate in either the Atlantic Sun conference tournament or the NCAA tournament. Both FGCU and USC Upstate are new to Division I and are going through the final year of their four-year transition.

Both Florida Gulf Coast and South Carolina Upstate are 4-0 in the Atlantic Sun Conference, the only two teams to be undefeated in conference play.

South Dakota State went through a similar transition a couple of years ago. Their first season of tournament eligibility ended with a 7-seed and a trip to the second round of the NCAA tournament. Florida Gulf Coast has the potential to do something similar next year.


Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)


Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

Cardinals Rise

The biggest game last night was probably Duke versus Kentucky, which Duke won thanks to Jasmine Thomas's 24 points and three blocked shots. But the biggest game in terms of movement in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was Louisville versus St. John's.

St. John's has yet to beat a team ranked in the top 50 in RPI, and prior to last week, their biggest marquee game was arguably against Marist in the season opener. But St. John's had amassed an impressive-sounding 12-1 record, and were ranked in the AP poll. They lost at Maryland in a game Maryland never trailed, and now have lost to Louisville. Their next two games: DePaul and Connecticut. St. John's may start the Big East season 1-3 (the one win coming from a Seton Hall game in the beginning of December).

Louisville, meanwhile, is in the process of turning the ship around after losing to both Marist and Houston in the Duel in the Desert. In this win over St. John's, four Cardinals scored in double-digits, including a double-double the hard way for Shoni Schimmel (11 points, 11 assists). Next up for them is a less-than-dominant Pittsburgh and a challenging-but-beatable Notre Dame. Two wins will serve Louisville's tournament resumé quite well.


Now in: Georgia, LSU
Now out: Oklahoma State, St. John's

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

The Problem with RPI (and the S-Factor)

Charlie Creme, resident women's bracketologist for ESPN, has published his first guess of the season. His number one seeds are Connecticut, Duke, Tennessee and Baylor, which I would agree are the obvious top four teams in the nation right now. The College Women's Hoops S-Factor, however, does not agree with Creme, putting 6 teams in front of Baylor, the #1 team in the nation right now according to the most recent AP poll. It is entirely a strength of schedule issue, a flaw that appears more in RPI numbers than in real life.

Let's compare Texas A&M with Baylor. Both Baylor and A&M have only one close loss so far, to elite teams (Duke, Connecticut) at the home arena of those teams. They've played similar numbers of top 50 teams (Texas A&M: 5, Baylor: 4) and have similar winning percentages in those games.

But humans and computers diverge in two key ways. Humans love Baylor because they have a huge marquee win to their credit (over Tennessee), while Texas A&M's biggest victory has come at the expense of Michigan, a team with much less cachet than the legendary Lady Vols. Computers, however, don't recognize "cachet" unless you program it into them. Computers prefer Texas A&M because they have played only two games to sub-100-ranked teams, while Baylor has played 9 such games. Baylor's schedule has included great teams and terrible teams, while Texas A&M's schedule has mostly been full of pretty good teams.

A team that plays 10 mediocre teams will have the same strength of schedule as a team that plays 5 great teams and 5 terrible teams. If both teams win every game, computers would rank the two teams equally. But Team B beat 5 great teams! They should be much higher ranked than Team A, according to a human's analysis.



Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Happy New Year!

And what a crazy weekend. The Pac-10 and Big Ten conference seasons started since last I updated the numbers. In the Big Ten, highly-ranked Ohio State and highly-ranked Iowa are a combined 0-3 in conference games, having both lost to Michigan, a team that surged 32 spots in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor rankings to #9.

Tennessee State, in a game against Georgia Tech, shot 6% (3 for 50) from the field on their way to setting a new NCAA record for fewest points in a game. Georgia Tech won 82-11. Tennessee State's three first half points was also a new record for least points in a half, coming on three free throws. The good news? Tennessee State nearly tripled their first half production in the second half.

Nebraska's Lindsey Moore achieved a triple double (12 points, 11 assists, 10 boards) against Florida A&M, the program's first.

The triumphant return of Whitney Hand to Oklahoma's lineup was not enough to overcome the sizeable duo of TCU's Emily Carter and Helena Sverrisdottir. Three Sooners fouled out in the 76-69 loss, which allowed TCU to attempt 38 free throws, 27 of them in the second half alone. Oklahoma coach Sherri Coale called it "obscene".

And I hear there was some game out in the bay area. Something about a streak ending.



Now in: Arizona, Texas, Louisville
Now out: LSU, Purdue, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2