The penultimate run of the S-Factor changed little from Monday's run since most conference tournament games happened over the weekend. It should be even less volatile for the last run, excepting Delaware, St. Joseph's, Green Bay, Creighton, and other teams from conferences whose tournaments have not yet been completed.
This is as good a time as any to point out the major differences between the S-Factor and Charlie Creme's bracketology, which has become the industry standard.
S-Factor: Duquesne in, West Virginia second out
Creme: West Virginia in, Duquesne first out
The S-Factor favors Duquesne due to a better RPI ranking (41 to 52), fewer losses (7 to 13), and conference tournament wins (1 to 0). This outweighs West Virginia's better conference RPI and record against top 50 teams in my model. When weighted against conference RPI, 9-9 in the Big 12 is about equivalent to 11-3 in the Atlantic 10.
Purdue
S-Factor: 4-seed
Creme: 7-seed
5% of the S-Factor score comes from conference tournament performance. Winning the Big Ten tournament bumped Purdue from a 7-seed to a 4-seed in the
S-Factor. Tournament games also bumped SEC-winning Texas A&M from a 5-seed to a 3-seed in the S-Factor, which is where Creme has them.
Michigan State
S-Factor: 5-seed
Creme: 8-seed
The S-Factor has been a little more bullish on Michigan State since February when they beat Purdue, a team high in RPI and low in respect.
Gonzaga
S-Factor: 7-seed
Creme: 11-seed
The West Coast Conference is in 7th place out of 31 conferences in terms of RPI, ahead of even the Atlantic 10. It has four teams in the top 75 in RPI and no teams with a strength of schedule in the bottom half of the country, which makes Gonzaga's current 15 game winning streak more impressive than similarly positioned teams like Delaware and Green Bay. That would be my pitch to the selection committee to give Gonzaga the 7-seed rather than a 10- or 11-seed (as a host school it is unlikely to get an 8- or 9-seed because that would involve a 1-seed playing an away game in the second round.).
Green Bay
S-Factor: 10-seed
Creme: 7-seed
It's hard to feel confident in an evaluation of a team when that team plays few marquee games. An impressive 26-2 record is hedged by the fact that all we really know is that Green Bay is the best team in Wisconsin.
Texas Tech
S-Factor: 10-seed
Creme: 6-seed
As much as conference RPI plays a role in the S-Factor (and therefore teams in the Big 12, the nations top RPI conference, get a slightly larger boost than other major conferences), a team's RPI counts for more, as do top 25 and top 50 wins. The entire non-Baylor Big 12 has no non-Iowa State top 25 wins (Iowa State is 22nd in RPI but has been in and out of the top 25 all season).
Texas Tech doesn't even have an Iowa State win. The Red Raiders have a 48th ranked RPI, which is solidly in the bubble team zone historically. I'm not saying there's a chance Tech will miss the tournament (a Big 12 team missing the tournament after winning more than 60% of their games would be an outrage). I'm just saying that everything besides conference winning record (three straight losses to unranked opponents, no conference tournament wins, ten losses on the season, soft non-conference schedule coupled with an unimpressive performance, best win all season was against the Big 12's 5th place team) points to a 10-seed or worse (like Gonzaga, Tech is a host school unlikely to be an 8- or 9-seed even if their resume was up to that level)
Princeton
S-Factor: 12-seed
Creme: 9-seed
I'd like to say Princeton's downfall in the S-Factor was their loss to Harvard, the lone blemish against a dominating Ivy League performance, but it would be untrue: the S-Factor has never had Princeton higher than a 12 seed. Princeton's impressive 26th ranked RPI is offset by the Ivy League's unimpressive 18th (of 31) conference RPI.
Showing posts with label Texas Tech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Texas Tech. Show all posts
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Monday, February 18, 2013
Sorting Out the Big 12
The Big 12 is a difficult problem to tackle from a tournament selection standpoint. Baylor is obviously the best team in the league and has sewn up the regular season. No one else in the league can beat them. TCU is pretty obviously the worst team in the conference, though Kansas State and Texas are certainly not tournament bound either. This leaves six teams in the middle who keep failing to differentiate themselves.
It seemed like there was a little bit of distance between the top and the bottom of the pack before this last week. The top teams were Iowa State and Oklahoma, the bottom teams were West Virginia and Kansas, and the middle was occupied by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This stratification ended this week. The top teams went 1-3, the bottom teams went 3-1, and the middle teams went 3-1. So now these six teams all have between 5 and 7 losses in conference.
The problem lies in tournament selection. It is not unprecedented for the Big 12 to get 7 teams into the tournament. It is unprecedented for a conference with only ten teams to get 7 teams into the tournament. There's no rule against having 70% of a conference attend the big dance though, and the tournament selection committee may have a very difficult time justifying excluding one or two teams given the similar resumes of all six.
Assuming all six lose matchups against each other on the road (and also Baylor wherever) and win all matchups against each other at home (and also TCU, Texas and Kansas State wherever), the final standings in the Big 12 will look like this:
1. Baylor (18-0)
2. Iowa State (13-5)
3. Texas Tech (12-6)
4. Kansas (10-8)
4. West Virginia (10-8)
4. Oklahoma (10-8)
4. Oklahoma State (10-8)
8. Kansas State (4-14)
9. Texas (3-15)
10. TCU (0-18)
Given the ease of remaining schedule, Iowa State has the inside track to second place in the conference, but nothing is certain: the Cyclones just lost at Hilton to West Virginia.
____
Now in:
Iowa
Army
Oral Roberts
Now out:
Duquesne
Navy
Sam Houston St.
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
It seemed like there was a little bit of distance between the top and the bottom of the pack before this last week. The top teams were Iowa State and Oklahoma, the bottom teams were West Virginia and Kansas, and the middle was occupied by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This stratification ended this week. The top teams went 1-3, the bottom teams went 3-1, and the middle teams went 3-1. So now these six teams all have between 5 and 7 losses in conference.
The problem lies in tournament selection. It is not unprecedented for the Big 12 to get 7 teams into the tournament. It is unprecedented for a conference with only ten teams to get 7 teams into the tournament. There's no rule against having 70% of a conference attend the big dance though, and the tournament selection committee may have a very difficult time justifying excluding one or two teams given the similar resumes of all six.
Assuming all six lose matchups against each other on the road (and also Baylor wherever) and win all matchups against each other at home (and also TCU, Texas and Kansas State wherever), the final standings in the Big 12 will look like this:
1. Baylor (18-0)
2. Iowa State (13-5)
3. Texas Tech (12-6)
4. Kansas (10-8)
4. West Virginia (10-8)
4. Oklahoma (10-8)
4. Oklahoma State (10-8)
8. Kansas State (4-14)
9. Texas (3-15)
10. TCU (0-18)
Given the ease of remaining schedule, Iowa State has the inside track to second place in the conference, but nothing is certain: the Cyclones just lost at Hilton to West Virginia.
____
Now in:
Iowa
Army
Oral Roberts
Now out:
Duquesne
Navy
Sam Houston St.
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Friday, February 15, 2013
A Non-Automated Bracket Prediction
Man, it's been awhile. Move over, S-Factor. Time for a bracket prediction by a human!
Last 4 in: Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Iowa, Washington
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this. The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.
2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes.
3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds. In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder. I doubt this will actually occur.
4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.
5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"? So weird.
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this. The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.
2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes.
3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds. In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder. I doubt this will actually occur.
4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.
5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"? So weird.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
The Best Conference
Which is the best conference?
There are arguments to be made for several. In terms of number of teams likely to go to the tournament, it would be hard to argue against the Big East. There are few bracket predictions that do not grant the Big East conference at least eight teams in the Big Dance (and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor says ten, but we'll see).
One might be able to argue the ACC is the best conference. Six teams, or half of the conference, is in the RPI top 25. Eight teams are in the top 50. And 9th place North Carolina State scored a big win last night against 12th ranked North Carolina, showing that at least the top 9 teams provide highly competitive matchups.
But 9 out of 12 isn't as good as 12 out of 12. One might be able to argue the Big 12 is the best conference. The Big 12 has the highest RPI of all the conferences, due in large part to the relative success of the bottom teams in the conference when measured against the bottom teams from other conferences. Every team in the Big 12 has at least one top 50 win, a feat shared by the ACC. But unlike the ACC, every team in the Big 12 has beaten at least one conference foe likely to be in the NCAA Tournament ...
Except Kansas State. Kansas State could get to 9-7 in conference without beating any conference opponent likely to go to the tournament. Which is why Kansas State would be unlikely to go to the NCAA Tournament with only a 9-7 record, while Texas Tech would have a much better chance at going to the tournament with a 7-9 conference record because of their world-shockin' court-stormin' win over top-ranked Baylor on Saturday.
________________________
Now in: American, UA Little Rock, Rutgers, Syracuse, Kansas State
Now out: Navy, Middle Tennessee State, Arizona State, LSU, Vanderbilt
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2
There are arguments to be made for several. In terms of number of teams likely to go to the tournament, it would be hard to argue against the Big East. There are few bracket predictions that do not grant the Big East conference at least eight teams in the Big Dance (and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor says ten, but we'll see).
One might be able to argue the ACC is the best conference. Six teams, or half of the conference, is in the RPI top 25. Eight teams are in the top 50. And 9th place North Carolina State scored a big win last night against 12th ranked North Carolina, showing that at least the top 9 teams provide highly competitive matchups.
But 9 out of 12 isn't as good as 12 out of 12. One might be able to argue the Big 12 is the best conference. The Big 12 has the highest RPI of all the conferences, due in large part to the relative success of the bottom teams in the conference when measured against the bottom teams from other conferences. Every team in the Big 12 has at least one top 50 win, a feat shared by the ACC. But unlike the ACC, every team in the Big 12 has beaten at least one conference foe likely to be in the NCAA Tournament ...
Except Kansas State. Kansas State could get to 9-7 in conference without beating any conference opponent likely to go to the tournament. Which is why Kansas State would be unlikely to go to the NCAA Tournament with only a 9-7 record, while Texas Tech would have a much better chance at going to the tournament with a 7-9 conference record because of their world-shockin' court-stormin' win over top-ranked Baylor on Saturday.
________________________
Now in: American, UA Little Rock, Rutgers, Syracuse, Kansas State
Now out: Navy, Middle Tennessee State, Arizona State, LSU, Vanderbilt
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2
Thursday, February 17, 2011
The Atlantic 10's Big Five; Plus Weird Big 12 Numbers
As I mentioned back in January, the Atlantic 10 is having a great year. Five teams have garnered predicted at-large bids in various bracket predictions: Xavier (of course), Temple, Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton. As of Tuesday, the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was predicting 4 Atlantic 10 teams would make the tournament.
But then Charlotte lost on Wednesday night against LaSalle and Duquesne lost a home game against St. Joseph's. It was not an uncharacteristic loss for Duquesne, but for Charlotte, it was their first conference loss against a team outside of the big five in the A10.
But it also pushed both Duquesne and Charlotte out of the top 50 in RPI. This meant that Temple, a team that is still undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference and is on a 13-game winning streak, lost two of their three top 50 wins, and so lost ground in the S-Factor rankings. But if Temple wins every game except for their regular season finale against Xavier, there is no chance they will not be rewarded with an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee.
It's interesting to look at the big five's record against each other.
Xavier: 3-0 with Duquesne and Temple left
Temple: 2-0 with Dayton and Xavier left
Duquesne: 1-1 with Xavier and Charlotte left
Charlotte: 1-2 with Duquesne left
Dayton: 0-4 with Temple left
That big doughnut in the win column for Dayton against the other big five teams will surely weigh heavily on the minds of the selection committee.
____________________________
Weirdness in the S-Factor in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech last night, and plummetted outside of the S-Factor's predicted at-large bids, while Texas Tech rose up 13 spots. Meanwhile, Kansas State got a routine win over Colorado and is now being shown at the cusp of the at-large bids.
But the S-Factor is more of a prediction of the tournament if the season ended right now, and it does not take into account the future schedule and predicted future wins. Texas Tech closes its regular season with 4 top 26 (RPI) games out of 5, while Iowa State will feast upon Big 12 north teams, and gets Texas at home. And conference record means a lot in the Big 12, the most difficult of all conferences from top to bottom. (Although probably not enough for Kansas State, who may be left to a WNIT bid if they go 9-7 in conference.)
Now in: Middle Tennessee State, USC, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Now out: UA Little Rock, Iowa State, Charlotte, Temple, Syracuse
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
But then Charlotte lost on Wednesday night against LaSalle and Duquesne lost a home game against St. Joseph's. It was not an uncharacteristic loss for Duquesne, but for Charlotte, it was their first conference loss against a team outside of the big five in the A10.
But it also pushed both Duquesne and Charlotte out of the top 50 in RPI. This meant that Temple, a team that is still undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference and is on a 13-game winning streak, lost two of their three top 50 wins, and so lost ground in the S-Factor rankings. But if Temple wins every game except for their regular season finale against Xavier, there is no chance they will not be rewarded with an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee.
It's interesting to look at the big five's record against each other.
Xavier: 3-0 with Duquesne and Temple left
Temple: 2-0 with Dayton and Xavier left
Duquesne: 1-1 with Xavier and Charlotte left
Charlotte: 1-2 with Duquesne left
Dayton: 0-4 with Temple left
That big doughnut in the win column for Dayton against the other big five teams will surely weigh heavily on the minds of the selection committee.
____________________________
Weirdness in the S-Factor in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech last night, and plummetted outside of the S-Factor's predicted at-large bids, while Texas Tech rose up 13 spots. Meanwhile, Kansas State got a routine win over Colorado and is now being shown at the cusp of the at-large bids.
But the S-Factor is more of a prediction of the tournament if the season ended right now, and it does not take into account the future schedule and predicted future wins. Texas Tech closes its regular season with 4 top 26 (RPI) games out of 5, while Iowa State will feast upon Big 12 north teams, and gets Texas at home. And conference record means a lot in the Big 12, the most difficult of all conferences from top to bottom. (Although probably not enough for Kansas State, who may be left to a WNIT bid if they go 9-7 in conference.)
Now in: Middle Tennessee State, USC, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Now out: UA Little Rock, Iowa State, Charlotte, Temple, Syracuse
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
The Outliers
It's hard to tell which teams selected by the College Women's Hoops S-Factor are mistakes and which ones are legitimate since there is only one confirmation test per year. But when one compares the S-Factor to other rankings generated by humans and computers, one gets a sense of where the outliers are.
Clearly the S-Factor is having problems seeing the merit of teams from mid-major conferences. The Horizon League's Wisconsin-Green Bay is ranked in both national polls, Charlie Creme's week old bracket has them in as a 5 seed, and a collection of models (Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Steven Jens and Sonny Moore) puts the Phoenix somewhere around a 7 seed. Yet the S-Factor huffily bestows an automatic-only seed of 11. Bowling Green, out of the Mid America Conference, winners of 14 games in a row and very close to being nationally ranked, is getting an average of a 7 seed by the computers (Steven Jens thinks they're the 16th best team in the country). But the S-Factor deigns only to give them a 12 seed, and nothing at all if they lose their conference tournament.
There are also teams that the S-Factor is infatuated with. Michigan, despite dropping their last two games, shows up high in the S-Factor with a predicted 6 seed, which is 4 seeds higher than the nearest outside computer model (Sagarin) would have them. (The S-Factor really loves those wins over Ohio State and Iowa). Creme's bracket doesn't even show Michigan in the "last four out" category. Another Big Ten team much loved by the S-Factor is Penn State, a team both humans and computers agree should be seeded somewhere south of an 8 seed (if at all). But the S-Factor puts them as the highest of the 5 seeds.
Some teams that seem too highly ranked with regard to human polls and brackets are actually mostly in line with other computer rankings. DePaul (2), Marquette (3), Texas Tech (5) and Louisville (7) are all teams that get more respect from number crunching than from human prognosticators, and the S-Factor sides more with the computers. The S-Factor also agrees with computers when humans appear to be overly sympathetic to some teams, like Ohio State (9), Kentucky (9), Syracuse (10) and Boston College (10).
And then there's the curious case of Oklahoma. Charlie Creme has them as a 6 seed. The polls would have them in with a 4 seed. Looks good for them, right? But according to RPI, the Sooners aren't anywhere near being in the tournament. The computer models Massey, Sagarin, and Jens all put them about where the S-Factor does around the mid-forties. But Sonny Moore ranks them 12th in the country, which would correspond to a 3 seed. Crazy!
Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Clearly the S-Factor is having problems seeing the merit of teams from mid-major conferences. The Horizon League's Wisconsin-Green Bay is ranked in both national polls, Charlie Creme's week old bracket has them in as a 5 seed, and a collection of models (Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Steven Jens and Sonny Moore) puts the Phoenix somewhere around a 7 seed. Yet the S-Factor huffily bestows an automatic-only seed of 11. Bowling Green, out of the Mid America Conference, winners of 14 games in a row and very close to being nationally ranked, is getting an average of a 7 seed by the computers (Steven Jens thinks they're the 16th best team in the country). But the S-Factor deigns only to give them a 12 seed, and nothing at all if they lose their conference tournament.
There are also teams that the S-Factor is infatuated with. Michigan, despite dropping their last two games, shows up high in the S-Factor with a predicted 6 seed, which is 4 seeds higher than the nearest outside computer model (Sagarin) would have them. (The S-Factor really loves those wins over Ohio State and Iowa). Creme's bracket doesn't even show Michigan in the "last four out" category. Another Big Ten team much loved by the S-Factor is Penn State, a team both humans and computers agree should be seeded somewhere south of an 8 seed (if at all). But the S-Factor puts them as the highest of the 5 seeds.
Some teams that seem too highly ranked with regard to human polls and brackets are actually mostly in line with other computer rankings. DePaul (2), Marquette (3), Texas Tech (5) and Louisville (7) are all teams that get more respect from number crunching than from human prognosticators, and the S-Factor sides more with the computers. The S-Factor also agrees with computers when humans appear to be overly sympathetic to some teams, like Ohio State (9), Kentucky (9), Syracuse (10) and Boston College (10).
And then there's the curious case of Oklahoma. Charlie Creme has them as a 6 seed. The polls would have them in with a 4 seed. Looks good for them, right? But according to RPI, the Sooners aren't anywhere near being in the tournament. The computer models Massey, Sagarin, and Jens all put them about where the S-Factor does around the mid-forties. But Sonny Moore ranks them 12th in the country, which would correspond to a 3 seed. Crazy!
Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Monday, January 10, 2011
Slouching Tigers, Rising Techsters
The first conference games for the Big 12 occured this past weekend, a very active weekend for almost every team. Iowa State started the conference season with arguably their hardest game, Baylor at Waco; the Cyclones lost. Texas failed to secure a win after leading Missouri by 12 points with under three minutes to go. And Texas Tech scored an important win over Kansas at Lawrence, propelling the Red Raiders up to a dubiously high 5-seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.
One unusual game that had ramifications for many teams was on Thursday when LSU lost to South Carolina. The loss pushed the Tigers down out of the S-Factor-predicted at-large bids, but it also knocked LSU out of the top 50 in RPI.
Because of this, several teams that scored victories against LSU suddenly had a weaker strength of schedule. Tulane, most precipitously, dropped 28 spots in the S-Factor just because of the LSU loss (even though Tulane now has won 6 games in a row and is still slated in the S-Factor to get the automatic bid from Conference USA).
Ohio State and Northwestern, teams that have beaten LSU this year, dropped 15 spots and 5 spots respectively (although Ohio State's loss to Iowa on Saturday certainly doesn't help matters).
The biggest gainer from LSU's loss? Louisiana Tech. LSU had beaten the Lady Techsters earlier this year. It seems counterintuitive that an opponent that beat your team earlier in the year and now has a lower RPI than before can actually boost your team's ranking. But now instead of winning 2 out of 4 against top 50 teams, Louisiana Tech has won 2 out of 3. It's enough of a difference to lift Louisiana Tech 20 spots in the S-Factor. Sometimes the numbers are just crazy in Mid-Majoropolis.
Now in: California, Purdue, St. John's
Now out: LSU, Arizona, Texas
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
One unusual game that had ramifications for many teams was on Thursday when LSU lost to South Carolina. The loss pushed the Tigers down out of the S-Factor-predicted at-large bids, but it also knocked LSU out of the top 50 in RPI.
Because of this, several teams that scored victories against LSU suddenly had a weaker strength of schedule. Tulane, most precipitously, dropped 28 spots in the S-Factor just because of the LSU loss (even though Tulane now has won 6 games in a row and is still slated in the S-Factor to get the automatic bid from Conference USA).
Ohio State and Northwestern, teams that have beaten LSU this year, dropped 15 spots and 5 spots respectively (although Ohio State's loss to Iowa on Saturday certainly doesn't help matters).
The biggest gainer from LSU's loss? Louisiana Tech. LSU had beaten the Lady Techsters earlier this year. It seems counterintuitive that an opponent that beat your team earlier in the year and now has a lower RPI than before can actually boost your team's ranking. But now instead of winning 2 out of 4 against top 50 teams, Louisiana Tech has won 2 out of 3. It's enough of a difference to lift Louisiana Tech 20 spots in the S-Factor. Sometimes the numbers are just crazy in Mid-Majoropolis.
Now in: California, Purdue, St. John's
Now out: LSU, Arizona, Texas
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)