Thursday, March 20, 2014

Who Got Screwed?

I analyzed five bracket predictions and 24 team ranking systems for my forthcoming look at bracketology-ology ("metabracketology" is maybe a better name, I think I'll go with that).  They are as follows:

Brackets:
1. Charlie Creme's bracketology
2. My bracket
3. RealtimeRPI's 65-team bracket
4. Omni Rankings bracket
5. College Sports Madness bracket

Ranking systems:
6. S-Factor
7. WBBState's "The State"
8. RealtimeRPI power rankings
9. Sagarin ratings
10. Sagarin ELO CHESS only
11. Sagarin PURE POINTS only
12. Sagarin GOLDEN MEAN only
13. Massey ratings
14. Massey's power ratings
15. Omni Ratings
16. Charlie Burrus's College Basketball Rankings (Women)
17. Warren Nolan's "NPI"
18. SporTheory's rankings
19. Sonny Moore's Computer Power Ratings
20. CJBratings.com composite ratings
21. CJBratings.com "Win ratings"
22. Stats.com "UPS Team Performance Index"
23. pilight's "field of 64" (rebkell boards)
24. RPI calculated by NCAA
25. RPI calculated by Warren Nolan
26. RPI calculated by RealtimeRPI
27. Win-loss percentage (from NCAA)
28. AP poll
29. Coaches poll

For the ranking systems, I created a list of 64 teams that would have been predicted as being in the tournament by that system; that is, the top 32 at-large teams along with the 32 automatic bids.  I averaged the seed predicted by each bracket or ranking system, and then took the difference between the average seed and the actual seed received by each team.






By this method, BYU lays claim to the most disrespected team in the country.  The average seed predicted was between 8 and 9, but the Cougars received a 12-seed from the committee.  James Madison, Albany, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma round out the top five most disrespected teams by average seed, while Penn State, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Purdue and Georgia were the five teams most favored by the committee. 

"But to average 8.38, some insane method had to have been forecasting a 7 seed or higher for BYU?" you might ask.  Well, not many besides this one weirdo forecasting method had BYU that high. The high average is partially due to the outlier methods like Warren Nolan's NPI, WBBState's The State, Stats TPI, and NCAA W-L percentage, methods that pay more attention to the team's record than the schedule difficulty.  Removing those methods from the average yields the following list:




This list still shows BYU and James Madison on top, but it knocks Albany's average seed down to 13.60, good for only seventh most disrespected team.  By this method, Vanderbilt is the most privileged team, seeded two seeds above their average.

Oklahoma gets included on both of these lists as a disrespected team, but many would say they're lucky to even be in the tournament this year.  The tables above measure distances from average predictions, but they do not take into account predictions that do not include teams that made the tournament.  So we also need to see how many predictions forecasted a berth for the at-large teams.




This table ranks the teams by the number of selection methods that predicted their selection. By itself, this list of model consensus could have been a useful forecasting tool for predicting the bubble.  The consensus only missed on two teams this year, Florida and either Vanderbilt, St. John's or St. Joseph's, which all tied at 17 predictions apiece.  20 methods predicted Rutgers would make it, and 25 predicted Bowling Green would make it, which lends some truth to Bowling Green's claim as the most egregious selection committee error.

All in all, it was a very reasonable field of 64 teams that were selected by the NCAA this year, in contrast to the Kansas debacle of last year, where Kansas's inclusion into the tournament was predicted by no one.  Charlie Creme of course got all 64 teams right, which is a feat that should be applauded.

More metabracketology to come soon.

Monday, March 17, 2014

March 17 Update: The Final S-Factor Model Run

The only bubble change since Friday is that Rutgers is now the final team in, taking the place of Florida State.  Syracuse jostled from 24th to 26th in the RPI rankings, thus taking away from Florida State its only top-25 win.  It's a very small thing, but such is life on the bubble. 

Here is the final breakdown by conference:

ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(4) Maryland
(5) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech

AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(3) Louisville
(11) Rutgers

Atlantic 10 Teams:
(5) Dayton
(9) Fordham
(11) St. Joseph's

Big East Teams:
(6) DePaul
(8) St. John's

Big Ten Teams:
(3) Nebraska
(4) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(5) Purdue
(6) Michigan State

Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(2) Baylor
(7) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(11) Iowa State

Conference USA Teams:
(6) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss

MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(13) Akron

PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(7) Oregon State
(8) USC
(10) Arizona State

SEC Teams:
(1) Tennessee
(2) South Carolina
(3) Texas A&M
(3) Kentucky
(9) LSU
(10) Georgia
(10) Vanderbilt

West Coast Teams:
(4) Gonzaga
(7) BYU

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Final Bracket Prediction

(Click on the image for better viewing)

The final bracket has now been posted. It is very similar to the one I posted on Friday, but it takes into account the wins by Northwestern State, Wright State, Prairie View, Fresno State, and Western Kentucky.

I still believe the bubble will be five of the following teams:

Oklahoma
Rutgers
Florida State
Florida
Bowling Green
BYU
Minnesota
South Florida
Southern Miss
St. Joseph's
Villanova

I dropped Creighton off the list from Friday.  I almost added Central Michigan to the list, but I decided against it because if the selection committee chooses an additional team from the MAC, it won't be the Chippewas, and three teams from the MAC just sounds absurd.

Charlie Creme and I agree on 62 out of the 64 teams that will be in the tournament.  Creme puts St. Joseph's and BYU in (both as 9-seeds), while I put Bowling Green and Rutgers in.  Bowling Green has a good RPI (32) and few bad losses. BYU has a fairly good RPI (38) but several losses in games the Cougars should have won, including their rivalry game against Utah at home in Provo, and conference games against Pacific, St. Mary's and San Diego. St. Joseph's still has an absurdly good RPI (22) but lots and lots of Atlantic 10 conference losses. Rutgers has a bad RPI (51), but come in with the only non-conference win over an at-large team of the four teams I've mentioned (against Georgia). If you're conspiratorial minded, Rutgers also fares better than other teams in categories that the Selection Committee isn't supposed to look at, like having a legendary and well-liked coach in the final stages of a contract negotiation, being on the East Coast, and being in UConn's conference.           

There are many good teams from small conferences that won't make the tournament, but I really feel the worst for Stetson. It had been since December 8th of last year that the Hatters were undefeated against teams that weren't Florida Gulf Coast. The last game of the regular season, the Hatters took the Eagles to overtime, but lost by one point to let Gulf Coast take the regular season title.  And today in the A-Sun championship, Stetson once again forced Gulf Coast to go to overtime, only to lose by two points. And now they won't be going to the NCAA tournament because the Atlantic Sun is considered a weak conference that can only support one bid (and also the Hatters lost to three bubble teams in the non-conference season by a combined 52 points). 

Friday, March 14, 2014

March 14 Update: New Bracket Prediction

(click on the image for better viewing)

I break down the differences between the S-Factor and this bracket on my Bracket Prediction page.

Bowling Green and Central Michigan both lost in the MAC semis today. Bowling Green's loss was unexpected, and it put Bowling Green on the bubble.  The bubble looks like this, in no particular order:

Oklahoma
Rutgers
Florida
Bowling Green
James Madison (if they lose)
Southern Miss (if they lose)
Minnesota
BYU
South Florida
St. Joseph's
Villanova
Creighton
Florida State

Only five of these teams are getting in. If James Madison wins the Colonial tournament, the list of five won't have to consider them.  If Southern Miss beats Middle Tennessee for the CUSA title, the list shrinks to four: the Blue Raiders are definitely an at-large team.




Monday, March 10, 2014

March 10 Update: Conference Summaries

 
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(4) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
(12) Florida State


I'm fairly pleased with how S-Factor has modeled the ACC this year. I think North Carolina State and Syracuse continue to be rated more highly in the S-Factor than they will be on Selection Monday, but I think these eight teams will all be selected and seeded roughly where I have them. 

AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(3) Louisville


The talent is spread out widely in the AAC, from the best team in the country to some of the lowliest, which has made this season completely predictable and boring in the AAC as well as made it hard to evaluate.  Connecticut, Louisville and Rutgers have all been rated too low all year. Connecticut will be the top 1 seed, Louisville will probably be a 2 seed, and I'd wager that Rutgers makes it into the tournament. South Florida has a shot at it too, though the best thing the Bulls have got going for them is their 14-game non-Louisville non-UConn winning streak.

Atlantic 10 Teams:
(5) Dayton
(8) Fordham
(11) St. Joseph's


Fordham definitely stole a bid from a bubble team, but I can't help but feel that all they did was knock St. Joseph's out of the field.  You can probably add two to the numbers in those seed indicator parenthesis and end up with a better prediction than what S-Factor is giving. 

Big East Teams:
(7) DePaul
(9) St. John's


The Big East today comprises the mediocre core that's missing from the American Athletic Conference.  They are the creamy nougat center to the AAC's hollowed out milk chocolate shell.  I think the S-Factor has ranked the Big East teams appropriately this year, and only these two are getting in.

Big Ten Teams:
(3) Nebraska
(4) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(5) Purdue
(6) Michigan State



The S-Factor got a little exuberant about the Big Ten tournament victories of Iowa and Nebraska, especially Nebraska.  I appreciate the fact that it ranks Minnesota as the second team out, firmly on the bubble, but on the outside of it.  If the selection committee decides that the third-ranked conference ought to get half of their teams in the field regardless of whether or not those teams beat anyone noteworthy, well, there's not much I can do but learn and tweak the model for future years.

Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(2) Baylor
(6) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(10) Iowa State


My one saving grace as a Sooners fan when looking at these models is that the S-Factor has really been hammering Big 12 teams this year as a group, and that maybe because of this fact Oklahoma is being unfairly punished in its rankings.  But teams with RPI rankings near 60 don't often get at-large bids. 

Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss




I'd be surprised if Southern Miss gets a bid without winning the Conference USA tournament. The S-Factor gave the CUSA teams too much credit this year, though I'm digging the seed it is giving MTSU. 

MAC Teams:
(8) Bowling Green


Bowling Green is not MTSU.  This seed feels too generous.
 
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(7) Oregon State
(9) Arizona State
(9) USC



The S-Factor still shows Stanford as the final #1 seed despite Stanford losing in the PAC 12 tournament semifinals (that still feels weird to type).  I'm pretty comfortable with how the S-Factor treated PAC 12 teams this year.

SEC Teams:
(1) Tennessee
(2) South Carolina
(3) Texas A&M
(3) Kentucky
(9) LSU
(10) Georgia
(10) Vanderbilt


It's weird to say a 62nd ranked team ought to leapfrog over a bunch of qualified teams to get a spot in the tournament, but that's how I feel about Florida.  The S-Factor thinks this is weird to say too, so it has not made this maneuver. 

West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(6) BYU
(12) St. Mary's

I've ranted before about the S-Factor's generosity towards WCC teams, but at least St. Mary's last loss of the non-WNIT season hasn't yet been factored in, so they'll fall out.  As for those other two WCC teams, feel free to add two to those seed indicator numbers.

Friday, March 7, 2014

March 7 Update

Now in:

USC  
Florida State   

Now out:

Minnesota 
Rutgers 


ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(9) Georgia Tech
(11) Florida State

AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(3) Louisville

Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
(11) Fordham

Big East Teams:
(7) DePaul
(10) St. John's

Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(5) Michigan State

Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(2) Baylor
(7) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
(10) Iowa State

Conference USA Teams:
(6) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss

MAC Teams:
(8) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan

PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(8) Oregon State
(8) Arizona State
(11) USC

SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(9) LSU
(9) Georgia
(10) Vanderbilt

West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(6) BYU

Monday, March 3, 2014

March 3 Update: The SEC Was Totally Bonkers This Year

Everybody, look how crazy this SEC tournament bracket is! Florida (RPI 65) is a 5-seed, LSU (RPI 12) is a 10-seed!  Five schools finished with a 7-9 record in the SEC this year, 6th through 10th place.  I have no idea what's going to happen in the SEC tournament, but I'm really excited about it!



Now in:
Fordham   (Fordham is one of four Atlantic 10 teams whose only top-25-RPI win is over St. Joseph's. St. Joseph's has an unusually high RPI for the number of middle-tier teams it's lost to.  Fordham is one of these teams, and will not be going to the NCAA tournament unless they win the Atlantic 10 tournament.)

Central Michigan    (The Chippewas played a harder non-conference schedule this year than Bowling Green and have the MAC's only top-50-RPI win out-of-conference (Dayton). Still, I don't think the MAC is a two-bid conference this year.)

Minnesota   (It finally happened. Charlie Creme has been calling it for weeks. Minnesota finally cracked into these rankings, despite the fact that their best win is against Chattanooga.)


Now out:
Florida   (Very big drop that has more to do with RPI rankings of Vanderbilt and St. John's tanking than because of their loss to Texas A&M on Sunday, which was expected. I would wager Florida still makes the field despite their poor RPI.)

San Diego   (Good riddance.)   

Creighton   (1. They beat Villanova, but Villanova is no longer a top-50-RPI team.  2. They beat St. John's, but St. John's is no longer a top-25-RPI team.  3. They lost to Marquette.)



ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech

AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers

Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(10) St. Joseph's
(10) Fordham

Big East Teams:
(7) DePaul
(10) St. John's

Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Nebraska
(4) Purdue
(5) Iowa
(5) Michigan State
(11) Minnesota

Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(3) Baylor
(6) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(9) Iowa State

Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss

MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan

PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(7) Oregon State
(8) Arizona State

SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(8) Vanderbilt
(9) LSU
(9) Georgia

West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(6) BYU