Final S-Factor of 2013

I ran the numbers one last time this morning. I have also made one last human-based bracket prediction.

In terms of 64-team selection, the one difference between the S-Factor and my bracket prediction is that I included West Virginia and left out Creighton.  I felt that to really be in contention for an at-large bid, Creighton needed to have made it to the title game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, and that didn't happen.  I think they'll be left out despite their relatively high RPI of 41.

What I'm not at all sure about is which team should replace them.  I put West Virginia in, but I would not be surprised if one of the regular-season-winning teams from weaker conferences (San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast, Toledo) was included in the field of 64.  I know I wrote two weeks ago that Creighton and Toledo had decent chances to get into the tournament as at-large bids, but neither team made it to their conference tournament final. San Diego State and Florida Gulf Coast did make it to the final game, and so I think both of those teams stand a better chance.  But I put West Virginia in the field because they proved themselves capable on more than two occasions of beating top 50 teams (Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State).

I feel that San Diego State, whose only win over a non-conference tournament-bound team was against Cal Poly, did not prove they could compete and win against the top teams. 

The team that makes me the most nervous though is Florida Gulf Coast.  They steamrolled through the Atlantic Sun conference, but they lost to Stetson in the tournament final. They have wins against tournament-bound LSU and Hampton, and 5 out of their 6 losses were against tournament-bound teams (assuming Charlotte gets in).  I could totally see the selection committee sticking FGCU in the field ahead of four other small conference regular season champs with better RPI ranking (Creighton (I know, co-champs), San Diego State, Pacific, Toledo).

I guess we'll see tonight.

I have Charlotte in the field despite their 53rd ranked RPI.  The S-Factor likes them even better than fellow Atlantic 10 conference mate Duquesne because of their 13-1 regular season record.  Charlie Creme puts West Virginia in the field instead of Charlotte.  Having both Duquesne and Charlotte in the field (in addition to Dayton and St. Joseph's) would be unusual: no more than three teams from the Atlantic 10 conference have been in the tournament since 1989. 

Bubble Poppers: At-Large Bids from Small Conferences

The conference regular season has now wrapped up in 15 out of the 31 automatic-bid-producing conferences, and conference tournaments begin this week in some of those 15.  With conference tournaments comes the chance that a top-seeded team will lose and forfeit the automatic bid that bracketologists have bestowed on it for so long.  For teams on the bubble, this may be bad news if the losing team is good enough to qualify for an at-large bid. One less slot for the South Floridas of the nation.

Here are 10 teams that could pop some other team's bubble if they lose in their conference tournament:

1. Delaware (26-3, 17-0 Colonial)
16th ranked in the latest AP poll and with a winning streak dating back to 2012, the Blue Hens are not missing the tournament this year.  But if the unthinkable happens and they lose in the Colonial tournament, the CAA will get two teams in the field when they would have only gotten one in otherwise.

2. Green Bay (24-2, 14-0)
20th ranked Green Bay has only two losses this season, none since December 5. Though their strength of schedule is abysmal, their consistency will likely be rewarded by the selection committee, even if they lose.

3. Gonzaga (25-5, 15-1 WCC)
Gonzaga started the conference season as one of three or four contenders for the West Coast Conference regular season crown. Since their loss to St. Mary's on January 10, the Bulldogs have gone undefeated while their conference contenders (BYU, St. Mary's, San Diego) sort of fell off, making the West Coast Conference a one-bid conference, unless Gonzaga loses.

4. Creighton (21-6, 13-3 Missouri Valley)
Creighton is the only team on this list that the S-Factor does not currently show as an automatic bid, but as an at-large bid.  Their RPI (26th ranked) is impressive, but their selection as an at-large bid is by no means certain given how rough the Valley's regular season was to them.  Still, wins against Nebraska and South Florida continue to look good for the Blue Jays, and I think they will have a good chance at getting an at-large bid. 

5. Toledo (26-2, 14-1 MAC)
With all the wild results from this weekend and Thursday, Toledo slipped into the AP rankings this week to #25.  Toledo is like a light-version of Green Bay: almost as dominant in conference (just one loss) almost as lengthy of a winning streak (last loss on January 10), and a strength of schedule that is slightly worse (the 222nd most difficult in the nation).  Should they lose, the Rockets still stand a good chance at getting an at-large bid. Maybe.

6. San Diego State (22-5, 13-1 MWC)
The Mountain West Conference lost a lot of its luster when TCU and Utah left, which is why the MWC is only getting one team in the field of 64 if San Diego State wins the tournament.  The MWC tournament though is notorious for upending the top seed, which has lost in six of the last seven conference tournaments.   San Diego State's last loss was on January 9, and their RPI of 36 may be enough to get them into the NCAA tournament without having to win the MWC tournament. Maybe.

7. Chattanooga (26-3, 19-1 SoCon)
Chattanooga had that monster win against Tennessee to open the season but lost 3 games against beatable opponents. Their 46-ranked RPI will probably keep them from the big dance if they lose the Southern Conference tournament. Maybe.

8. Florida Gulf Coast (25-5, 18-0 Atlantic Sun)
Florida Gulf Coast, still in only their second NCAA tournament-eligible season, dominated the Atlantic Sun Conference, and they went 2-3 against the big six conferences, including a win against LSU that is looking better and better as the season progresses. Still, the Atlantic Sun is a terrible conference (28th of 31 in conference RPI terms) and two bids from it seems unlikely.

9. Quinnipiac (26-2, 17-0 NEC)
The unexpected dominance of the Northeast Conference by Quinnipiac  this year might be enough to earn the Bobcats a bid to the NCAA tournament if they lose in the conference tournament. But like Toledo, their SOS is abysmal, and they'd basically be relying on a 3-point win against St. John's to get them in should they lose the NEC tournament.

10. Marist (23-6, 18-0 MAAC)
Though it hasn't happened in eight years, we must at least assume that Marist failing to get the automatic bid in the MAAC (Marist, Automatic, Always! Conference) is a possibility.  If that happens, could they get into the NCAA tournament anyways? I say it's unlikely given their six losses, their 49th ranked RPI, and their best win being over Princeton.

Line Change in Automatic Bids

Texas A&M had yet another great game this weekend against Baylor at home in front of the largest crowd ever to witness a women's basketball game in College Station. This time though, the Aggies fell short by a score of 63-60. Odyssey Sims, the superstar freshman guard for Baylor, led the way with 25 points including the go-ahead bucket with 26 seconds left. Brittney Griner was held to "merely" 17 points and 12 rebounds. Baylor's win improved their RPI enough to move the Bears back into a predicted number 1 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Elsewhere in the country. this weekend saw ten conference leaders losing games, which led to seven new automatic bid placeholders.

1. In the Atlantic Sun, Campbell College took North Florida to two overtimes but couldn't pull off the win.

2. In the Big Sky, Montana beat in-state rival and conference leader Montana State in a revenge match from the previous week, when the Bears lost to the Bobcats at home.

3. In the Big South, former conference leader Gardner Webb lost to UNC Asheville by a point.

4. In the Big 10, former conference leader Michigan State was upended by Iowa.

5. In the MAC, Toledo emerged from a difficult week with the conference lead, after beating former conference leaders Kent State and Bowling Green.

6. In the Missouri Valley conference, Missouri State's loss to Creighton on Thursday stripped the Bears of the conference lead.

7. In one of the strangest results of the week, TCU, a team that was cruising towards an automatic bid, lost two games to the two teams with the worst records in the Mountain West; New Mexico and Air Force.

8. In the Patriot League, Navy lost to Colgate (Colgate's best win of the season), but Navy still retains the presumed automatic bid.

9. In the Southland Conference, McNeese State suffered their first loss of the conference season to Central Arkansas, but retains the conference lead.

10. Middle Tennessee State was tripped up by the Golden Panthers of Florida International, which means UA Little Rock now has the lead in the Sun Belt Conference.


Now in: Arizona State, Wyoming, Radford, East Tennessee State, Toledo, UA Little Rock, Northern Iowa
Now out: Northwestern, TCU, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Kent State, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

It's Foe Week

One of the biggest unknowns in bracket prediction is trying to guess which small conference bubble teams are going to be in the tournament if those teams lose their conference tournaments. Teams like Gonzaga, Middle Tennessee, Bowling Green and Green Bay are all good teams. Their non-conference schedules have shown they can compete with the big conference teams, and in some cases win. But they have to be almost perfect against the conference spread if they want any sort of insurance policy against an unusual loss in their conference tournament.

These teams all have foes, teams from within their conference that are good enough to steal a win away. For Gonzaga the foe is usually St. Mary's, and this year is no exception. Middle Tennessee State's intra-conference foe is the very good team from Little Rock, which made the tournament last year as an at-large team to the surprise of many. Green Bay's foe is Butler this year; like Green Bay, Butler is undefeated in the Horizon. And the MAC has evolved to create two foes for Bowling Green this year: Kent State and Toledo both share Bowling Green's 5-1 conference record.

Foe games are important because they are the only challenges these elite small-conference teams have between December and March, a sparse data point or two for bracketologists.

This week is setting up to be quite a week for foe games. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's for the first time tomorrow, Bowling Green plays Toledo tonight for the only scheduled time this season, and Green Bay travels to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tomorrow to challenge Butler for sole Horizon League supremecy.

Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2