Monday, March 2, 2015

March 2 Update

Now in:
LSU
West Virginia
Wichita State
Now out:
Arkansas
Miami (FL)
Drake
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 7
PAC 12: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big East: 2
West Coast: 2

Friday, February 27, 2015

February 27 Update

Now in:
San Diego 
Bryant

Now out:
LSU
Robert Morris

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC 12: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big East: 2
West Coast: 2

Monday, February 23, 2015

February 23 Update: Consider the Wolfpack

Here's how I stack up against Charlie Creme this week.

Women's College Basketball Bracketology Comparison - February 23, 2015


Seed
Creme (before proced-ural bumps)
New S-Factor
Old S-Factor
Connecticut
(1)
(3)
(3)
Notre Dame
(1)
(1)
(1)
Tennessee
(1)
(1)
(1)
South Carolina
(1)
(1)
(2)
Baylor
(2)
(1)
(1)
Oregon State
(2)
(2)
(2)
Florida State
(2)
(2)
(2)
Maryland
(2)
(2)
(1)
Duke
(3)
(3)
(4)
Iowa
(3)
(5)
(3)
Louisville
(3)
(3)
(2)
Arizona State
(3)
(2)
(3)
North Carolina
(4)
(4)
(4)
Kentucky
(4)
(5)
(5)
Texas A&M
(4)
(3)
(3)
California
(4)
(4)
(5)
Mississippi State
(5)
(4)
(4)
Stanford
(5)
(5)
(7)
George Washington
(5)
(6)
(4)
Rutgers
(5)
(8)
(8)
Oklahoma
(6)
(5)
(6)
Princeton
(6)
(10)
(6)
Washington
(6)
(6)
(9)
Syracuse
(6)
(6)
(6)
Dayton
(7)
(9)
(5)
South Florida
(7)
(7)
(6)
Minnesota
(7)
(7)
(7)
Ohio State
(7)
(6)
(8)
UW Green Bay
(8)
(11)
(9)
Texas
(8)
(4)
(7)
Northwestern
(8)
(8)
(8)
Chattanooga
(8)
(9)
(8)
Nebraska
(9)
(9)
(10)
Pittsburgh
(9)
(7)
(9)
James Madison
(9)
(11)
(9)
Florida Gulf Coast
(9)
(7)
(5)
Miami
(10)
(10)
(11)
Oklahoma State
(10)
(8)
(10)
Arkansas
(10)
(10)
---
Western Kentucky
(10)
(12)
(12)
Seton Hall
(11)
(11)
(10)
DePaul
(11)
(12)
(11)
LSU
(11)
(11)
---
Gonzaga
(11)
(9)
(7)
West Virginia
(12)
---
---
Quinnipiac
(12)
(13)
(13)
Tulane
(12)
---
---
Iowa State
(12)
(8)
(12)
Colorado State
(13)
(14)
(14)
UA Little Rock
(13)
(12)
(11)
Drake
(13)
(13)
(13)
Ohio
(13)
(13)
(13)
Hawaii
(14)
(13)
(13)
American
(14)
(14)
(14)
Liberty
(14)
(15)
(15)
Maine
(14)
(14)
(14)
UT Martin
(15)
(15)
(15)
Stephen F. Austin
(15)
(15)
(15)
Montana
(15)
(15)
(15)
South Dakota
(15)
(14)
(14)
Hampton
(16)
(16)
(16)
New Mexico State
(16)
(16)
(16)
Texas Southern
(16)
(16)
(16)
NEC winner
(16)
(16)
(16)
N.C. State
---
(10)
(12)
TCU
---
(12)
---
San Diego
---
---
(10)
Pacific
---
---
(11)
BYU
---
---
(12)


I've got North Carolina State shown in the tournament in both of my models which, given their win against then-10th-ranked Duke last night, my conviction about this pick is pretty strong (as long as the Wolfpack win at least one game in the ACC tournament).

Charlie Creme and I differ on which team from the Big 12 will slip into the tournament by default. He's got West Virginia in and I've got TCU, but I think we both agree that neither of these teams truly deserves a spot in the tournament and will be lucky to be in the tournament even if no unexpected conference tournament winners get in.

My old formulation once again highly favors West Coast Conference teams in a way that does not reflect the history of the NCAA Selection Committee's choices. I can't see a reality where Gonzaga, Pacific, BYU and San Diego all get into the NCAA tournament. This was one of the reasons I decided to change the algorithm before this season started.


Now in:
N.C. State
Seton Hall
TCU
Maine

Now out:
Vanderbilt
Kansas State
Georgia
Albany

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC 12: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big East: 2