Monday, January 26, 2015

January 26 Update: TCU and the Big 12 Advantage

The latest comparison between Charlie Creme's Bracketology and my two S-Factor algorithms is shown below.

Women's College Basketball Bracketology Comparison


Team
Seed: Charlie Creme (before proced-ural bumps)
Seed: New S-Factor
Seed: Old S-Factor
Connecticut
(1)
(3)
(3)
South Carolina
(1)
(2)
(2)
Baylor
(1)
(1)
(1)
Notre Dame
(1)
(1)
(1)
Maryland
(2)
(1)
(1)
Louisville
(2)
(3)
(3)
Oregon State
(2)
(1)
(1)
Tennessee
(2)
(2)
(2)
Arizona State
(3)
(2)
(2)
Kentucky
(3)
(3)
(3)
Iowa
(3)
(4)
(3)
Florida State
(3)
(2)
(2)
Texas A&M
(4)
(5)
(7)
Duke
(4)
(5)
(4)
North Carolina
(4)
(6)
(6)
Mississippi State
(4)
(6)
(6)
Nebraska
(5)
(6)
(7)
Stanford
(5)
(5)
(5)
Oklahoma
(5)
(3)
(4)
Washington
(5)
(4)
(5)
George Washington
(6)
(7)
(4)
Minnesota
(6)
(7)
(7)
Texas
(6)
(4)
(6)
Georgia
(6)
(5)
(5)
Princeton
(7)
(11)
(9)
James Madison
(7)
(12)
(9)
Michigan
(7)
(10)
(11)
UW Green Bay
(7)
(10)
(8)
California
(8)
(6)
(7)
Dayton
(8)
(8)
(6)
Syracuse
(8)
(8)
(8)
Iowa State
(8)
(4)
(4)
Seton Hall
(9)
(11)
(8)
Rutgers
(9)
(9)
(10)
Pittsburgh
(9)
(8)
(11)
South Florida
(9)
(7)
(5)
Western Kentucky
(10)
(12)
(12)
Gonzaga
(10)
(10)
(8)
Ohio State
(10)
(8)
(11)
Miami (FL)
(10)
(9)
(9)
Washington State
(11)
(7)
(10)
Chattanooga
(11)
(10)
(10)
St. John's
(11)
(12)
(12)
Vanderbilt
(11)
(9)
Florida Gulf Coast
(12)
(9)
(9)
Fresno State
(12)
(13)
(13)
Northwestern
(12)
(12)
Long Beach State
(12)
(13)
(13)
Quinnipiac*
(13)
(14)
(15)
UA Little Rock
(13)
(12)
(10)
Ohio
(13)
(13)
(13)
Wichita State
(13)
(13)
(13)
Albany
(14)
(14)
(14)
Hampton
(14)
(15)
(14)
American
(14)
(14)
(14)
South Dakota
(14)
(14)
(14)
Liberty
(15)
(15)
(15)
Sacramento State
(15)
(15)
(15)
Central Conn. St.
(15)
(15)
(16)
Cornell**
(15)
New Mexico State
(16)
(16)
(16)
UT Martin
(16)
(16)
(15)
Northwestern State
(16)
(16)
(16)
Texas Southern
(16)
(16)
(16)
TCU
(11)
(12)
Tulane
(11)
(11)


*Creme has Quinnipiac in because they are in 1st place in the MAAC. I have Marist in because of the Marist Exception.

**Creme gives Cornell the automatic bid, but lets Princeton in as an at-large bid. Neither team has lost a conference game yet, so by my rules Princeton should be the Ivy leader.

Creme and I agree on 62 of the teams this week, and given that Tulane is listed first in his First Four Out section, I think that we would agree on 63 of 64 if he had kept Princeton as the Ivy League's automatic bid.

Given this assumption, our one difference is the Big 12's TCU.  Big 12 teams are favored by the S-Factor because of conference RPI and the fact that 100% of the league is in the top 100 in terms of RPI.

If this seems like a flimsy reason to favor one team over another, consider the 2013 NCAA Tournament Selection Committee taking Kansas over teams like Duquesne and Charlotte and San Diego State. Kansas went 8-10 in the Big 12 conference that year. Kansas was 57th in RPI, and was still chosen ahead of Duquesne and their top-40 RPI due to the fact that Kansas played in the Big 12, which was the conference with the highest RPI despite having only two teams in the top 30.

Or consider last year when Florida (RPI 65) got selected over Bowling Green (RPI 31) and Southern Miss (RPI 29). Florida played in the SEC, the conference with the highest RPI, and finished with a good enough 8-8 record.

TCU is currently in a position similar to these teams, with a conference record at 4-3 and a not-that-great RPI rank (64th). If the rest of the conference season matches RPI ratings, TCU will finish at 8-10 in the top conference in the NCAA.  Recent history has shown that this may be enough.

Now in:
Rutgers
TCU
St. John's
New Mexico State


Now out:
Texas-Pan American
West Virginia
Arkansas
Northwestern

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Pac 12: 6
Big 12: 5
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Big East: 2