Monday, March 22, 2010

Report Card for 2010

The final 2010 S-Factor correctly predicted 61 of the 64 teams that made it into the women's NCAA championship tournament. Other results are listed below, along with the comparison to other ranking methodologies and human-produced bracket predictions (in italics).

Legend:
RPI = Rating Percentage Index. Compiled by Jerry Palm.
Sagarin = Jeff Sagarin ratings; a synthesis of the ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS models. Compiled by Jim Sukup.
Sg ELO C = Jeff Sagarin's ELO CHESS model.
Sg PP = Jeff Sagarin's PURE POINTS model.
Massey = Kenneth Massey's rankings
WDC(O) = Women's Dance Card (original), compiled by M. Dale
WDC(M) = Women's Dance Card (modified), compiled by M. Dale
Wobus = John Wobus's rankings
KRACH = Bradley-Terry style rankings based on Ken Butler's "Ken's Ratings for American College Hockey," or KRACH. Compiled by John Wobus
AP Poll = taking the top 24 of the 25-team AP Poll and seeding them 1-6.
Coaches' = Same as above, with the Coaches' Poll.

Brackets:
Palm - Jerry Palm of Collegerpi.com
Creme - Charlie Creme, resident womens' bracketologist for ESPN
labcoatguy - My bracket prediction, published on hoopscoop.net here
Fennelly - Billy Fennelly, son of Iowa State coach Bill Fennelly, found here


No. of teams predicted (max=64)


1. WDC(O).....62 (96.9%)
1. WDC(M).....62 (96.9%)
1. Wobus......62 (96.9%)
1. KRACH......62 (96.9%)
1. Creme......62 (96.9%)
1. Palm.......62 (96.9%)
1. Fennelly...62 (96.2%)
1. labcoatguy.62 (96.2%)
9. S-Factor...61 (95.3%)
9. RPI........61 (95.3%)
9. Massey.....61 (95.3%)
12.Sagarin....60 (93.8%)
12.Sg ELO C...60 (93.8%)
14.Sg PP......58 (90.6%)


Correctly seeded (entire field)(max=64)


1. Creme......38 (59.3%)
2. RPI........33 (51.6%)
3. S-Factor...31 (48.4%)
4. WDC(M).....30 (46.9%)
4. labcoatguy.30 (46.9%)
6. WDC(O).....26 (40.6%)
7. Wobus......25 (39.1%)
7. Palm.......25 (39.1%)
9. KRACH......24 (37.5%)
10.Sagarin....23 (35.9%)
11.Fennelly...21 (32.8%)
12.Massey.....20 (31.3%)
13.Sg ELO C...16 (25.0%)
14.Sg PP......15 (23.4%)


Seeded within 1 (entire field)(max=64)


1. Creme......55 (85.9%)
2. Palm.......54 (84.4%)
3. labcoatguy.51 (79.7%)
4. S-Factor...49 (76.6%)
4. Wobus......49 (76.6%)
6. Sg ELO C...48 (75.0%)
7. RPI........47 (73.4%)
8. Fennelly...45 (70.3%)
9. WDC(O).....44 (68.8%)
9. Sagarin....44 (68.8%)
9. Sg PP......44 (68.8%)
12.WDC(M).....43 (67.2%)
12.KRACH......43 (67.2%)
14.Massey.....41 (64.1%)


Correctly Seeded (Seeds 1-12)(max=48)


1. Creme......25 (52.1%)
2. labcoatguy.22 (45.8%)
3. S-Factor...21 (43.8%)
4. RPI........20 (41.7%)
5. WDC(M).....19 (39.6%)
6. Wobus......17 (35.4%)
6. Sagarin....17 (35.4%)
6. Palm.......17 (35.4%)
9. KRACH......16 (33.3%)
9. Fennelly...16 (33.3%)
11.WDC(O).....15 (31.3%)
11.Massey.....15 (31.3%)
13.Sg PP......12 (25.0%)
14.Sg ELO C...11 (22.9%)


Seeded within 1 (seeds 1-12)(max=48)


1. Palm.......40 (83.3%)
2. Creme......39 (81.3%)
3. labcoatguy.37 (77.1%)
4. S-Factor...35 (72.9%)
5. Wobus......34 (70.8%)
5. Sg ELO C...34 (70.8%)
7. RPI........32 (66.7%)
7. Fennelly...32 (66.7%)
9. Sagarin....31 (64.6%)
10.Sg PP......30 (62.5%)
11.WDC(O).....29 (60.4%)
11.KRACH......29 (60.4%)
13.WDC(M).....28 (58.3%)
14.Massey.....27 (56.3%)


Correctly Seeded (Seeds 1-6)(max=24)


1. Creme......18 (75.0%)
2. labcoatguy.16 (66.7%)
3. S-Factor...14 (58.3%)
3. WDC(M).....14 (58.3%)
3. Wobus......14 (58.3%)
3. Palm.......14 (58.3%)
7. RPI........13 (54.2%)
7. WDC(O).....13 (54.2%)
7. Massey.....13 (54.2%)
10.AP Poll....12 (50.0%)
10.Coaches'...12 (50.0%)
10.KRACH......12 (50.0%)
10.Fennelly...12 (50.0%)
14.Sagarin....11 (45.9%)
15.Sg ELO C...9 (37.5%)
15.Sg PP......9 (37.5%)


Seeded within 1 (seeds 1-6)(max=24)


1. Creme......23 (95.8%)
2. Palm.......22 (91.7%)
3. WDC(O).....21 (87.5%)
3. AP Poll....21 (87.5%)
3. labcoatguy.21 (87.5%)
6. S-Factor...20 (83.3%)
6. WDC(M).....20 (83.3%)
6. RPI........20 (83.3%)
6. Sg ELO C...20 (83.3%)
6. Coaches'...20 (83.3%)
6. Fennelly...20 (83.3%)
12.Wobus......19 (79.2%)
12.Sagarin....19 (79.2%)
14.Massey.....17 (70.8%)
14.KRACH......17 (70.8%)
14.Sg PP......17 (70.8%)



Thursday, March 18, 2010

2009-2010 S-Factor

Teams in red receive automatic bids.

Rank.S-Factor..School..........Conference......Predicted Seed
1....95.10.....Connecticut.....Big East........(1)
2....88.85.....Nebraska........Big 12..........(1)
3....86.43.....Tennessee.......SEC.............(1)
4....83.07.....Stanford........Pac 10..........(1)
5....78.13.....Duke............ACC.............(2)
6....74.51.....Ohio State......Big Ten.........(2)
7....73.12.....Texas A&M.......Big 12..........(2)
8....71.60.....West Virginia...Big East........(2)
9....71.49.....Notre Dame......Big East........(3)
10...68.96.....Florida St......ACC.............(3)
11...68.65.....Oklahoma........Big 12..........(3)
12...64.88.....Georgetown......Big East........(3)
13...63.54.....Xavier..........A10.............(4)
14...61.34.....Kentucky........SEC.............(4)
15...61.32.....Texas...........Big 12..........(4)
16...61.17.....Oklahoma State..Big 12..........(4)
17...60.22.....Michigan State..Big Ten.........(5)
18...60.05.....Iowa State......Big 12..........(5)
19...59.82.....Georgia.........SEC.............(5)
20...59.34.....St. John's......Big East........(5)
21...58.38.....Baylor..........Big 12..........(6)
22...55.84.....UCLA............Pac 10..........(6)
23...55.64.....Vanderbilt......SEC.............(6)
24...53.82.....Virginia........ACC.............(6)
25...53.17.....Wisconsin.......Big Ten.........(7)
26...52.78.....LSU.............SEC.............(7)
27...52.37.....Iowa............Big Ten.........(7)
28...51.93.....N.C. State......ACC.............(7)
29...51.28.....Mississippi St..SEC.............(8)
30...50.47.....Georgia Tech....ACC.............(8)
31...50.17.....DePaul..........Big East........(8)
32...50.00.....Dayton..........A10.............(8)
33...49.13.....Rutgers.........Big East........(9)
34...47.83.....Middle Tenn. St.Sun Belt........(9)
35...47.29.....USC.............Pac 10..........(9)
36...47.05.....Gonzaga.........West Coast......(9)
37...47.03.....Temple..........A10.............(10)
38...47.00.....Hartford........America East....(10)
39...46.13.....James Madison...Colonial........(10)
40...46.09.....North Carolina..ACC.............(10)
41...46.01.....Fresno State....WAC.............(11)
42...45.95.....Syracuse........Big East........(11)
43...44.57.....Boston College..ACC.............(11)
44...44.40.....Tulane..........Conference USA..(11)
(The bubble bursts here)
45...44.19.....Wake Forest.....ACC
46...44.02.....TCU.............Mountain West
47...43.91.....Bowling Green...MAC.............(12)
48...43.73.....Penn State......Big Ten
49...42.47.....Michigan........Big Ten
50...41.89.....Maryland........ACC
51...41.84.....Vermont.........America East....(12)
52...41.70.....Illinois State..Missouri Valley
53...41.55.....South Carolina..SEC
54...41.30.....UA-Little Rock..Sun Belt
55...40.96.....California......Pac 10
56...40.59.....Purdue..........Big Ten
57...40.41.....Marquette.......Big East
58...40.20.....San Diego State.Mountain West...(12)
59...39.75.....Princeton.......Ivy.............(12)

60...39.38.....Old Dominion....Colonial
61...39.32.....Texas Tech......Big 12
62...39.06.....Mississippi.....SEC
63...38.77.....Illinois........Big Ten
64...38.12.....Kansas..........Big 12
65...37.20.....Liberty.........Big South.......(13)
66...37.10.....Utah............Mountain West
67...36.44.....St. Bonaventure.A10
68...36.26.....Providence......Big East
69...36.15.....Miami (FL)......ACC
70...36.03.....UW Green Bay....Horizon
71...35.81.....Toledo..........MAC
72...34.85.....Louisiana Tech..WAC.............(13)
73...34.77.....New Mexico......Mountain West
74...34.06.....Gardner Webb....Big South
75...34.03.....Arizona State...Pac 10
76...33.95.....Florida.........SEC
77...33.05.....Marist..........MAAC............(13)
78...32.90.....BYU.............Mountain West
79...31.61.....Lehigh..........Patriot.........(13)
80...30.22.....Chattanooga.....Southern........(14)
81...29.65.....Northern Iowa...Missouri Valley.(14)
82...28.26.....South Dakota St.Summit..........(14)
83...27.57.....E. Tenn. State..Atlantic Sun....(14)
84...24.58.....Cleveland State.Horizon.........(15)
85...24.25.....Lamar...........Southland.......(15)
86...20.50.....St.Francis (PA).NEC.............(15)
87...20.24.....Hampton.........MEAC............(15)
88...19.17.....UC Riverside....Big West........(16)
89...18.23.....Portland State..Big Sky.........(16)
90...16.89.....Austin Peay.....Ohio Valley.....(16)
91...14.22.....Southern U......SWAC............(16)