Unexpected January Conference Losses: Are They Really Consequential?

The Pacific Tigers are in an interesting spot this year.  They have had a pretty good season so far and a decent resume for a small conference team.  They beat St. Mary's, Seattle and Fresno State, three teams leading their respective conferences right now. They have played two big conference teams this year, Florida and Stanford. They lost big to Stanford and hung close to Florida.  Best of all, their RPI is very high, 29th right now. 

But this past weekend they lost at Cal Poly by one point, 96-95. 

That loss would put them out of the tournament according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor (Cal State Northridge now owns the automatic bid for the Big West Conference).  But in real life will that one loss by one point in a high-scoring game matter to the selection committee?

The selection committee will only need to make a selection decision about Pacific if Pacific loses their conference tournament in March, which in itself will be another mark against letting Pacific into the big dance.  So maybe one random loss in January won't be very consequential after all.

Now in:
Virginia
Texas Tech
St. Mary's
CSU Northridge
Akron
Fresno State
Davidson
Central Arkansas
Tennessee Tech
Seattle
Lehigh
Southern

Now out:
Pacific
Duquesne
Chattanooga
Toledo
San Diego State
Gonzaga
Ohio State
Lamar
Louisiana Tech
Murray State
Holy Cross
Prairie View A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
PAC 12: 4
Colonial: 2

Small Conference Power Teams

Ain't it funny how the teams from small conferences that always get into the tournament ... always get into the tournament? The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are in the tournament once more despite finishing four games behind conference regular season champ Oral Roberts. South Dakota State beat Oakland in the Summit League championship last night 61-54.

But maybe the perception that power teams from small conferences always get into the tournament ... is merely a perception. UC Santa Barbara has gone to the NCAA tournament for 11 out of the last 14 years. The Gauchos came into the Big West tournament as the top seed. In tournaments past, the top seed would get a two round bye and would only need to win two games in order to win the tournament, like how the Mountain West Conference and the West Coast Conference do it. This year the Big West tournament went back to a more traditional structure where the winner would need three wins regardless of seeding. Unfortunately for UC Santa Barbara, they would not even get one win, as the 8th-seeded Pacific Tigers took the Gauchos out of the tournament early.

And in other conference tournaments, Connecticut was able to wrap up the top #1 seed in the NCAA tournament by beating Notre Dame last night in the Big East tournament championship.


_________________________

Now in: South Dakota State
Now out: Oakland

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2