Final S-Factor of 2013

I ran the numbers one last time this morning. I have also made one last human-based bracket prediction.

In terms of 64-team selection, the one difference between the S-Factor and my bracket prediction is that I included West Virginia and left out Creighton.  I felt that to really be in contention for an at-large bid, Creighton needed to have made it to the title game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, and that didn't happen.  I think they'll be left out despite their relatively high RPI of 41.

What I'm not at all sure about is which team should replace them.  I put West Virginia in, but I would not be surprised if one of the regular-season-winning teams from weaker conferences (San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast, Toledo) was included in the field of 64.  I know I wrote two weeks ago that Creighton and Toledo had decent chances to get into the tournament as at-large bids, but neither team made it to their conference tournament final. San Diego State and Florida Gulf Coast did make it to the final game, and so I think both of those teams stand a better chance.  But I put West Virginia in the field because they proved themselves capable on more than two occasions of beating top 50 teams (Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State).

I feel that San Diego State, whose only win over a non-conference tournament-bound team was against Cal Poly, did not prove they could compete and win against the top teams. 

The team that makes me the most nervous though is Florida Gulf Coast.  They steamrolled through the Atlantic Sun conference, but they lost to Stetson in the tournament final. They have wins against tournament-bound LSU and Hampton, and 5 out of their 6 losses were against tournament-bound teams (assuming Charlotte gets in).  I could totally see the selection committee sticking FGCU in the field ahead of four other small conference regular season champs with better RPI ranking (Creighton (I know, co-champs), San Diego State, Pacific, Toledo).

I guess we'll see tonight.

I have Charlotte in the field despite their 53rd ranked RPI.  The S-Factor likes them even better than fellow Atlantic 10 conference mate Duquesne because of their 13-1 regular season record.  Charlie Creme puts West Virginia in the field instead of Charlotte.  Having both Duquesne and Charlotte in the field (in addition to Dayton and St. Joseph's) would be unusual: no more than three teams from the Atlantic 10 conference have been in the tournament since 1989. 

Bubble Poppers: At-Large Bids from Small Conferences

The conference regular season has now wrapped up in 15 out of the 31 automatic-bid-producing conferences, and conference tournaments begin this week in some of those 15.  With conference tournaments comes the chance that a top-seeded team will lose and forfeit the automatic bid that bracketologists have bestowed on it for so long.  For teams on the bubble, this may be bad news if the losing team is good enough to qualify for an at-large bid. One less slot for the South Floridas of the nation.

Here are 10 teams that could pop some other team's bubble if they lose in their conference tournament:

1. Delaware (26-3, 17-0 Colonial)
16th ranked in the latest AP poll and with a winning streak dating back to 2012, the Blue Hens are not missing the tournament this year.  But if the unthinkable happens and they lose in the Colonial tournament, the CAA will get two teams in the field when they would have only gotten one in otherwise.

2. Green Bay (24-2, 14-0)
20th ranked Green Bay has only two losses this season, none since December 5. Though their strength of schedule is abysmal, their consistency will likely be rewarded by the selection committee, even if they lose.

3. Gonzaga (25-5, 15-1 WCC)
Gonzaga started the conference season as one of three or four contenders for the West Coast Conference regular season crown. Since their loss to St. Mary's on January 10, the Bulldogs have gone undefeated while their conference contenders (BYU, St. Mary's, San Diego) sort of fell off, making the West Coast Conference a one-bid conference, unless Gonzaga loses.

4. Creighton (21-6, 13-3 Missouri Valley)
Creighton is the only team on this list that the S-Factor does not currently show as an automatic bid, but as an at-large bid.  Their RPI (26th ranked) is impressive, but their selection as an at-large bid is by no means certain given how rough the Valley's regular season was to them.  Still, wins against Nebraska and South Florida continue to look good for the Blue Jays, and I think they will have a good chance at getting an at-large bid. 

5. Toledo (26-2, 14-1 MAC)
With all the wild results from this weekend and Thursday, Toledo slipped into the AP rankings this week to #25.  Toledo is like a light-version of Green Bay: almost as dominant in conference (just one loss) almost as lengthy of a winning streak (last loss on January 10), and a strength of schedule that is slightly worse (the 222nd most difficult in the nation).  Should they lose, the Rockets still stand a good chance at getting an at-large bid. Maybe.

6. San Diego State (22-5, 13-1 MWC)
The Mountain West Conference lost a lot of its luster when TCU and Utah left, which is why the MWC is only getting one team in the field of 64 if San Diego State wins the tournament.  The MWC tournament though is notorious for upending the top seed, which has lost in six of the last seven conference tournaments.   San Diego State's last loss was on January 9, and their RPI of 36 may be enough to get them into the NCAA tournament without having to win the MWC tournament. Maybe.

7. Chattanooga (26-3, 19-1 SoCon)
Chattanooga had that monster win against Tennessee to open the season but lost 3 games against beatable opponents. Their 46-ranked RPI will probably keep them from the big dance if they lose the Southern Conference tournament. Maybe.

8. Florida Gulf Coast (25-5, 18-0 Atlantic Sun)
Florida Gulf Coast, still in only their second NCAA tournament-eligible season, dominated the Atlantic Sun Conference, and they went 2-3 against the big six conferences, including a win against LSU that is looking better and better as the season progresses. Still, the Atlantic Sun is a terrible conference (28th of 31 in conference RPI terms) and two bids from it seems unlikely.

9. Quinnipiac (26-2, 17-0 NEC)
The unexpected dominance of the Northeast Conference by Quinnipiac  this year might be enough to earn the Bobcats a bid to the NCAA tournament if they lose in the conference tournament. But like Toledo, their SOS is abysmal, and they'd basically be relying on a 3-point win against St. John's to get them in should they lose the NEC tournament.

10. Marist (23-6, 18-0 MAAC)
Though it hasn't happened in eight years, we must at least assume that Marist failing to get the automatic bid in the MAAC (Marist, Automatic, Always! Conference) is a possibility.  If that happens, could they get into the NCAA tournament anyways? I say it's unlikely given their six losses, their 49th ranked RPI, and their best win being over Princeton.

A Non-Automated Bracket Prediction

Man, it's been awhile. Move over, S-Factor. Time for a bracket prediction by a human!

Last 4 in: Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Iowa, Washington
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4


Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this.  The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.

2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes. 

3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds.  In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder.  I doubt this will actually occur.

4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.

5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"?  So weird.

Atlantic 10 Ruling; Mountain West Drooling

Of all the mid-major conferences (defined as conferences that are not the Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, Atlantic Coast and Southeast Conference), two of the 26 (counting the Great West) rank higher than all others in terms of the number of at-large bids garnered over the past few years: the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West. It seems like it's a rare year when the Atlantic 10 doesn't get three teams into the NCAA tournament, and the Mountain West is so full of parity that the annual conference tournament is often completely up for grabs.

But this year there is no question as to which conference is better. The Atlantic 10 is having a great year as a whole. As of right now, eight teams from the 14-team conference are ranked in the top 75 of RPI. Three Atlantic 10 teams are in Charlie Creme's field of 64, and two more are on the cusp. While the College Women's Hoops S-Factor only lists two, the S-Factor is unreasonably stingy to mid-major conferences at this point in the year. Xavier is being talked about as a 2 seed; Duquesne has been on everyone's list since they beat Ohio State; Temple, Charlotte and Dayton are all very close to being in the big dance; and St. Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, and Richmond have all been competitive in their biggest games.

The Mountain West, however, has been pretty weak as a conference whole. Many of the traditional powers are having off years. Both the Utes of Utah and the Lady Lobos of New Mexico lost a lot of games in a difficult non-conference schedule, but kept losing once the conference season began. San Diego State has achieved an 8-8 record so far with their best win coming against Dayton and a loss to the non-aligned Roadrunners of Cal State Bakersfield. BYU and Wyoming are the only two challengers to what is looking like a dominant run by TCU this year. Wyoming was crushed by TCU last week, and BYU travels to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs tonight. With only a single top-50-RPI win in the entire conference this season (that being TCU's victory over 50th ranked Oklahoma earlier this year), the Mountain West is looking like a one-bid conference this year.

Now in: Vanderbilt
Now out: Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2