Monday, February 28, 2011

East Coast Conferences' Regular Seasons are Over

There's a new bracket prediction up in celebration of the end of the regular season for many conferences.

Anybody want to play Ohio State right now? The Buckeyes are winners of their last six, including a road win at conference leader Michigan State and a 33-point blowout of Wisconsin, a team that has gone 10-6 in conference. They are finally peaking after such a terrible start, a start which resulted in Ohio State not attaining the Big Ten regular-season title for the first time in six years.

Another regular season streak came to an end officially this weekend. For the first time in eleven seasons, Chattanooga did not win the regular season title in the Southern Conference this year. Appalachian State took seventeen of their twenty scheduled SoCon games and the conference title. They will face either Davidson or the College of Charleston on March 4th to start the SoCon Tournament.

__________________

Now in: Northern Colorado, Michigan
Now out: Montana State, Texas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Friday, February 25, 2011

Gladiator Death Match Thursday

For bubble teams it seems like every game in late February is a test. For bubble teams playing other bubble teams, it seems like it's more of a gladiator death match where two contenders enter the arena, but only one comes out (still looking at a tournament bid).

There were two gladiator death match games last night: LSU versus South Carolina, and Southern California versus Arizona State. LSU and Arizona State came out on top last night, and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor rewards their performances with 10-seeds. For their losses, South Carolina remains outside the predicted at-large bids, while Southern Cal was thrust out to the "first four out" category.

But both teams with acronyms of USC have not quite been fed to the lions just yet. Of course anything can happen in their conference tournaments. South Carolina has a chance at a top-25 win against Vanderbilt this weekend, and Southern California has a chance to go 11-7 in the Pac-10, which is acceptable for an at-large resumé though not automatic by any means.

______________________

Now in: Texas, LSU
Now out: Southern California, Michigan

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Upset Wednesday

In women's college basketball, there aren't usually a whole lot of upsets on any given night. Which is why last night could be classified as "Upset Wednesday" with only two really big upsets: Louisville over no. 7 DePaul, and Colorado over no. 16 Oklahoma.

There were a couple of smaller upsets too. A Big 12 northern division team finally won a game on the home court of a Big 12 southern division team for the first time this year when Kansas beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater. And a struggling Duquesne got a much needed road victory over a good Charlotte team.

__________________

Now in: Navy, Vanderbilt, Arizona State
Now out: American, Kansas State, Texas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Best Conference

Which is the best conference?

There are arguments to be made for several. In terms of number of teams likely to go to the tournament, it would be hard to argue against the Big East. There are few bracket predictions that do not grant the Big East conference at least eight teams in the Big Dance (and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor says ten, but we'll see).

One might be able to argue the ACC is the best conference. Six teams, or half of the conference, is in the RPI top 25. Eight teams are in the top 50. And 9th place North Carolina State scored a big win last night against 12th ranked North Carolina, showing that at least the top 9 teams provide highly competitive matchups.

But 9 out of 12 isn't as good as 12 out of 12. One might be able to argue the Big 12 is the best conference. The Big 12 has the highest RPI of all the conferences, due in large part to the relative success of the bottom teams in the conference when measured against the bottom teams from other conferences. Every team in the Big 12 has at least one top 50 win, a feat shared by the ACC. But unlike the ACC, every team in the Big 12 has beaten at least one conference foe likely to be in the NCAA Tournament ...

Except Kansas State. Kansas State could get to 9-7 in conference without beating any conference opponent likely to go to the tournament. Which is why Kansas State would be unlikely to go to the NCAA Tournament with only a 9-7 record, while Texas Tech would have a much better chance at going to the tournament with a 7-9 conference record because of their world-shockin' court-stormin' win over top-ranked Baylor on Saturday.

________________________


Now in: American, UA Little Rock, Rutgers, Syracuse, Kansas State
Now out: Navy, Middle Tennessee State, Arizona State, LSU, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Friday, February 18, 2011

Tournament-Bound Breakdown by State

As of right now, the states with the most predicted women's NCAA tournament teams are Texas and Tennessee. But 27 states and the District of Columbia will also be represented by at least one tournament-bound team.

Tennessee5
Texas5
California4
Louisiana4
Pennsylvania4
Virginia4
Iowa3
Maryland3
North Carolina3
Ohio3
Florida2
Georgia2
Indiana2
Kentucky2
Michigan2
New York2
Oklahoma2
Wisconsin2
Arizona1
Arkansas1
Connecticut1
District of Columbia1
Illinois1
Montana1
New Jersey1
Utah1
Washington1
West Virginia1


________________________

Now in: Arizona State, Iowa State, Temple, UM Baltimore County
Now out: Boston U, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Rutgers

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Thursday, February 17, 2011

The Atlantic 10's Big Five; Plus Weird Big 12 Numbers

As I mentioned back in January, the Atlantic 10 is having a great year. Five teams have garnered predicted at-large bids in various bracket predictions: Xavier (of course), Temple, Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton. As of Tuesday, the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was predicting 4 Atlantic 10 teams would make the tournament.

But then Charlotte lost on Wednesday night against LaSalle and Duquesne lost a home game against St. Joseph's. It was not an uncharacteristic loss for Duquesne, but for Charlotte, it was their first conference loss against a team outside of the big five in the A10.

But it also pushed both Duquesne and Charlotte out of the top 50 in RPI. This meant that Temple, a team that is still undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference and is on a 13-game winning streak, lost two of their three top 50 wins, and so lost ground in the S-Factor rankings. But if Temple wins every game except for their regular season finale against Xavier, there is no chance they will not be rewarded with an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee.

It's interesting to look at the big five's record against each other.

Xavier: 3-0 with Duquesne and Temple left
Temple: 2-0 with Dayton and Xavier left
Duquesne: 1-1 with Xavier and Charlotte left
Charlotte: 1-2 with Duquesne left
Dayton: 0-4 with Temple left

That big doughnut in the win column for Dayton against the other big five teams will surely weigh heavily on the minds of the selection committee.

____________________________

Weirdness in the S-Factor in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech last night, and plummetted outside of the S-Factor's predicted at-large bids, while Texas Tech rose up 13 spots. Meanwhile, Kansas State got a routine win over Colorado and is now being shown at the cusp of the at-large bids.

But the S-Factor is more of a prediction of the tournament if the season ended right now, and it does not take into account the future schedule and predicted future wins. Texas Tech closes its regular season with 4 top 26 (RPI) games out of 5, while Iowa State will feast upon Big 12 north teams, and gets Texas at home. And conference record means a lot in the Big 12, the most difficult of all conferences from top to bottom. (Although probably not enough for Kansas State, who may be left to a WNIT bid if they go 9-7 in conference.)



Now in: Middle Tennessee State, USC, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Now out: UA Little Rock, Iowa State, Charlotte, Temple, Syracuse

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Tuesday, February 15

Now in: Old Dominion
Now out: Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
PAC-10: 2
Colonial: 2

Monday, February 14, 2011

Host Teams and the Brackets

There's a new bracket prediction up.

The first and second rounds of the women's NCAA tournament will be played at 16 predetermined sites hosted by 16 different schools. Unlike in the men's tournament, the women's tournament rules state that if a host school gets into the tournament, that school is required to play at its own site.

This year six out of the AP poll's top seven teams are slated to host: Baylor, Connecticut, Stanford, Tennessee, Xavier and Duke. Most brackets (including mine) seed these teams #1 and #2.

Since no other host team can be grouped with these teams, it means there will not be a host team seeded 8 or 9, and there may be fewer host teams seeded 7 or 10 than the S-curve would predict.

Could this have bracketing implications? Most definitely. The other host teams likely to make the field this year are Louisiana Tech, Penn State, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Maryland. Maryland looks like a lock for a 3, 4, 5, or 6 seed and would therefore be unaffected, but one of the other four may artificially move up or down depending on bracketing needs.

And I'm sure none of the other potential 2-seeds who are not hosting do not relish the thought of having to play a second round game on the road. I think it's fairly likely that one of the potential 2-seeds (Texas A&M definitely, maybe UCLA, Michigan State or Notre Dame) will end up playing in Columbus, OH; University Park, PA; or possibly even in Bossier City, LA or Spokane, WA.

Whatever the result, Texas A&M will surely be the best team in the tournament to be shipped 1000 miles away for their first two games. Bossier City (the closest first round site not located in Waco) would actually be the most attractive scenario for the Aggies.


Now in: Montana State, Charlotte, Temple, Southern California, Princeton, St. Francis (PA)
Now out: Northern Colorado, Harvard, Robert Morris, Arkansas, Arizona State, Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
PAC-10: 3

Friday, February 11, 2011

Friday

Now in: Northern Colorado, Syracuse
Now out: Northwestern, Montana State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Iowa State: Road Worriers

Iowa State is in trouble. The Cyclones' only top-50 RPI win so far this year was against Michigan on December 5th at home. Iowa State has now lost overtime games against Colorado and Kansas, teams that are certainly not in the top half of the Big 12 conference.

Worst of all, their road record is 2-5 (while their home record remains an impressive 11-1).

Iowa State is currently 4-5 in the conference at a time when most would have expected them to be at least 6-3.

But the good news is that Iowa State doesn't have to play Texas A&M, Baylor, or Oklahoma again in the regular season!


Now in: Boston College, Vanderbilt,
Now out: Syracuse, Kansas State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Six-Point Bounces: Earned and Unearned

There were two great games involving great teams last night: Tennessee escaped with a win over Kentucky, but RPI no. 1 Duke fell to North Carolina. In the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, Tennessee moved up to the number two position while Duke fell to the number four position. North Carolina, as would be expected, gained six positions to number 12 and a predicted 3 seed.

But the strangest S-Factor movement occured on the bubble. Despite not playing a game last night, Northwestern moved up six positions and is now shown in the field as an 11 seed. Their RPI did not budge.

The reason for the jump? Minnesota moved from RPI #101 to RPI #100, and LSU moved from RPI #51 to RPI #50. Northwestern has a loss to Minnesota that is no longer a sub-100 loss, and the Wildcats also have a win against LSU that is now a top 50 win.

North Carolina and Northwestern jumped by the same amount in one day. One could say that a numeric wiggle is just as important as a hard-fought win over a top-rated opponent. But it's not true: the latter is much more important than the former. Numbers are just funny that way.


Now in: Northwestern
Now out: Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Monday, February 7, 2011

Xavier's Artificial Slide

I was looking at these numbers today, and I wondered what the deal was with Xavier? Xavier remains undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference, and they had been slated by the College Women's Hoops S-Factor as a 3-seed last week (and for most of the season) and as a 2-seed two weeks ago. Their RPI remains high, no. 9 in the country. But Xavier plummeted to a 5-seed in the new calculation this morning.

The reason for this has nothing to do with Xavier's play. While it's true that the Musketeers struggled at Dayton on Saturday in an overtime victory over the Flyers, only wins and losses, not quality of play, are factored into the S-Factor.

The reason for Xavier's numeric slide is due to two teams that Xavier has beaten this season: Michigan and USC. Both teams had been just barely in the top 25 of RPI going into Thursday (the Wolverines at no. 21 and the Trojans at no. 25). Both teams lost games (Michigan to Penn State and USC to UCLA), and therefore both lost ground in the RPI rankings (Michigan is now no. 26, and USC is now no. 29). Which means Xavier, by no fault of their own, now has zero wins over top 25 teams. Thus, the drop in the rankings.


Now in: Liberty, James Madison, Harvard, Texas, Boston College
Now out: Radford, Old Dominion, Princeton, Texas Tech, Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Why the S-Factor is Cramming Ten Teams In From One Conference

The College Women's Hoops S-Factor shows ten of the sixteen Big East teams getting into the dance: Connecticut, DePaul, Georgetown, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's and Rutgers. This, frankly, is absurd.

The Big East chart shows the rigid stratification of the conference. Basically the Big East can be divided into 4 groups: the Connecticut Group, the Ranked Group, the Middling Group and the Big Least.

The Big Least is composed of six teams (Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and South Florida) who have gone a combined 6-43 in conference games. They have achieved zero wins against teams from the other groups.

The Connecticut Group is composed of three teams (Connecticut, DePaul, Notre Dame) who have combined for only one loss in an intragroup game (Notre Dame losing to Connecticut).

The most mixing occurs in the two middle groups; the Ranked Group (Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia), and the Middling Group (Rutgers, St. John's, Syracuse, Louisville). The Middling Group has achieved two wins over the Ranked Group (Rutgers over Georgetown, Syracuse over Marquette). These two wins have kept the Middling Group as a whole above the at-large bubble line in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Here is a table of the relative records against each other:

C.Gr.R.Gr.M.Gr.Least
Connecticut Group1-14-07-013-0
Ranked Group0-43-34-211-0
Middling Group0-72-44-413-0
The Big Least0-130-110-136-6


Besides those two wins previously discussed, there is no intergroup mixing of wins. And it is this oddly stratified configuration that is tricking the S-Factor into thinking there will be ten Big East teams in the tournament.


Now in: BYU, St. John's
Now out: Wyoming, Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2