January 6 Update: UCLA Loses Two Games, North Carolina Drops Out

We are still at a point in the season where RPI rankings exhibit large swings with each unexpected win or loss.  James Madison University was just a week ago ranked 42nd in RPI, but today after one loss they are ranked 63rd.  The S-Factor had JMU in the tournament a week ago (RPI 42 is usually on the cusp of an at-large berth), but they dropped out after their loss to North Carolina.

James Madison's Gulf Coast Showcase first round opponent UCLA was just a week ago ranked 24th, but today after two losses, they are 53rd.  The Bruins went from being a top-25 team to a sub-50 team, which matters to the S-Factor because wins over opponents in the top-50 and the top-25 are worth more.

North Carolina had wins over both James Madison and UCLA on their books, which used to give them two top-25 wins and three top-50 wins. But then UCLA lost two games, and now the Tar Heels' only top 50 win is against South Carolina. That puts them out of the tournament for now, but playing in the stacked ACC will give them plenty more opportunities to score meaningful wins.  Of course, the Tar Heels could have had another top-50 win to partially offset the RPI drop of their opponents this weekend, but they lost to Maryland at home.

This has been this week's installment of "How Could My Team Have Fallen So Far In Your Stupid Rankings?"

Now in: 
Penn State
Auburn
Florida
USC
Washington
George Washington
Creighton
Central Arkansas

Now out:
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Marquette
Oregon
Minnesota
Georgia Tech
DePaul
Northwestern State

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 6
PAC 12: 6
ACC: 6
Big 12: 4
West Coast: 3
American: 3
Big East: 2
Atlantic 10: 2

The Best Conference

Which is the best conference?

There are arguments to be made for several. In terms of number of teams likely to go to the tournament, it would be hard to argue against the Big East. There are few bracket predictions that do not grant the Big East conference at least eight teams in the Big Dance (and the College Women's Hoops S-Factor says ten, but we'll see).

One might be able to argue the ACC is the best conference. Six teams, or half of the conference, is in the RPI top 25. Eight teams are in the top 50. And 9th place North Carolina State scored a big win last night against 12th ranked North Carolina, showing that at least the top 9 teams provide highly competitive matchups.

But 9 out of 12 isn't as good as 12 out of 12. One might be able to argue the Big 12 is the best conference. The Big 12 has the highest RPI of all the conferences, due in large part to the relative success of the bottom teams in the conference when measured against the bottom teams from other conferences. Every team in the Big 12 has at least one top 50 win, a feat shared by the ACC. But unlike the ACC, every team in the Big 12 has beaten at least one conference foe likely to be in the NCAA Tournament ...

Except Kansas State. Kansas State could get to 9-7 in conference without beating any conference opponent likely to go to the tournament. Which is why Kansas State would be unlikely to go to the NCAA Tournament with only a 9-7 record, while Texas Tech would have a much better chance at going to the tournament with a 7-9 conference record because of their world-shockin' court-stormin' win over top-ranked Baylor on Saturday.

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Now in: American, UA Little Rock, Rutgers, Syracuse, Kansas State
Now out: Navy, Middle Tennessee State, Arizona State, LSU, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

Six-Point Bounces: Earned and Unearned

There were two great games involving great teams last night: Tennessee escaped with a win over Kentucky, but RPI no. 1 Duke fell to North Carolina. In the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, Tennessee moved up to the number two position while Duke fell to the number four position. North Carolina, as would be expected, gained six positions to number 12 and a predicted 3 seed.

But the strangest S-Factor movement occured on the bubble. Despite not playing a game last night, Northwestern moved up six positions and is now shown in the field as an 11 seed. Their RPI did not budge.

The reason for the jump? Minnesota moved from RPI #101 to RPI #100, and LSU moved from RPI #51 to RPI #50. Northwestern has a loss to Minnesota that is no longer a sub-100 loss, and the Wildcats also have a win against LSU that is now a top 50 win.

North Carolina and Northwestern jumped by the same amount in one day. One could say that a numeric wiggle is just as important as a hard-fought win over a top-rated opponent. But it's not true: the latter is much more important than the former. Numbers are just funny that way.


Now in: Northwestern
Now out: Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2