Connecticut's annual flogging of Duke occurred this week. For the third year in a row, Duke came into the game undefeated, and for a third year in a row Duke got walloped. The predictability (inevitability) of this result serves only to reinforce the widely held (and correct) view that Connecticut is an unstoppable force in a sport with very few opposing immovable objects (Skylar Diggins and Brittney Griner being the two most recent).
Now in:
Middle Tennessee State University
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Now out:
Virginia Tech
Temple
Oregon State
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 5
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Conference USA: 2
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Friday, December 20, 2013
Monday, March 11, 2013
S-Factor and Duke: A Love Affair
Okay, so it can no longer be avoided: when the final model run takes place one week from today, the S-Factor is going to end up showing Duke as a number one-seed. Either Connecticut or Stanford, almost unanimously shown as one seeds by other bracketology sites, is going to be shown as a two-seed. Connecticut will be no lower than #4 overall if they win the Big East tournament, but if they lose in the championship game or before, they will almost certainly be shown where they are right now, in the #5 overall spot.
I outlined the case for Duke back in February. Since then, two bracket-changing events have happened: Duke lost to 50th-ranked-in-RPI Miami, and Duke killed it in the ACC tournament, triumphing in the championship by 19 points over North Carolina. On the one hand, that loss to Miami is the only loss by any of the top 5 teams (Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Duke) to a team outside the top 25. On the other hand, Duke won both the regular season and the conference tournament of the ACC, and they went 5-0 against top 25 teams since Chelsea Gray's injury.
Still, Connecticut and Stanford seem like objectively better teams. They have losses only to teams that will be #1 or #2 seeds in the tournament, and they both have more blowouts of 20+ points (Connecticut 24, Stanford 18, Duke 16, none since Chelsea Gray's injury). Connecticut at the very least should definitely be ahead of Duke, if for no other reason than the 30 point blowout they handed to Duke.
Now in:
St. John's
UT Martin
Seattle
Stetson
Navy
Now out:
Illinois
Eastern Illinois
Utah State
Florida Gulf Coast
Army
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2
I outlined the case for Duke back in February. Since then, two bracket-changing events have happened: Duke lost to 50th-ranked-in-RPI Miami, and Duke killed it in the ACC tournament, triumphing in the championship by 19 points over North Carolina. On the one hand, that loss to Miami is the only loss by any of the top 5 teams (Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Duke) to a team outside the top 25. On the other hand, Duke won both the regular season and the conference tournament of the ACC, and they went 5-0 against top 25 teams since Chelsea Gray's injury.
Still, Connecticut and Stanford seem like objectively better teams. They have losses only to teams that will be #1 or #2 seeds in the tournament, and they both have more blowouts of 20+ points (Connecticut 24, Stanford 18, Duke 16, none since Chelsea Gray's injury). Connecticut at the very least should definitely be ahead of Duke, if for no other reason than the 30 point blowout they handed to Duke.
Now in:
St. John's
UT Martin
Seattle
Stetson
Navy
Now out:
Illinois
Eastern Illinois
Utah State
Florida Gulf Coast
Army
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2
Thursday, February 28, 2013
New Human-Made Bracket Guess
I've used my puny human brain to craft a new bracket prediction:
This differs from the S-Factor in the following notable ways:
1. The S-Factor favors Creighton and Duquesne to get in, I favor Iowa and Miami to get in. Iowa gets in because they have many more impressive wins than the other three bubble teams I mentioned, despite their February slump. Miami gets in because their best long-ago win (Penn State) is more impressive than Creighton's best long-ago win (Nebraska) and Duquesne's best long-ago win (Delaware).
2. The S-Factor still has Duke as the #3 overall, a shade ahead of Connecticut. Connecticut will definitely pass them by the time the season is done (they have more basketball left to play than does Duke), and I believe Stanford is a slightly more deserving team of the final #1 due to their win over Baylor.
3. The S-Factor has Gonzaga as a 9 seed. I bumped them up to a 7 seed so that Notre Dame didn't have to play on someone else's home court. I chose to bump high to a 7 rather than low to a 10 because I think it's more fair to make 10 seeds play away games than it would be to make 7 seeds play away games. Note: this applies to LSU as well, though S-Factor has them in at a 7 seed anyways.
4. I think the committee will be a lot kinder to Green Bay (assuming they win out and finish the season with 2 losses) than the S-Factor is. I stuck them in as a 10 in this bracket, but I think if they win out, an 8 seed is their absolute floor and even a 6 seed wouldn't be surprising.
This differs from the S-Factor in the following notable ways:
1. The S-Factor favors Creighton and Duquesne to get in, I favor Iowa and Miami to get in. Iowa gets in because they have many more impressive wins than the other three bubble teams I mentioned, despite their February slump. Miami gets in because their best long-ago win (Penn State) is more impressive than Creighton's best long-ago win (Nebraska) and Duquesne's best long-ago win (Delaware).
2. The S-Factor still has Duke as the #3 overall, a shade ahead of Connecticut. Connecticut will definitely pass them by the time the season is done (they have more basketball left to play than does Duke), and I believe Stanford is a slightly more deserving team of the final #1 due to their win over Baylor.
3. The S-Factor has Gonzaga as a 9 seed. I bumped them up to a 7 seed so that Notre Dame didn't have to play on someone else's home court. I chose to bump high to a 7 rather than low to a 10 because I think it's more fair to make 10 seeds play away games than it would be to make 7 seeds play away games. Note: this applies to LSU as well, though S-Factor has them in at a 7 seed anyways.
4. I think the committee will be a lot kinder to Green Bay (assuming they win out and finish the season with 2 losses) than the S-Factor is. I stuck them in as a 10 in this bracket, but I think if they win out, an 8 seed is their absolute floor and even a 6 seed wouldn't be surprising.
Monday, February 25, 2013
The Case for Duke
In today's bracketology update, Charlie Creme says that the idea of Duke losing its 2-seed will have to be put on hold for now. I'm going to go one further: why not a 1-seed?
The S-Factor was impressed by Duke's wins over Maryland and Florida State, enough that they are now slotted as the third #1, ahead of Connecticut, the only team to beat the Blue Devils this year. The S-Factor knows nothing about Chelsea Gray's injury, of course; it only sees a one-loss team, undefeated in the ACC, with five wins over top 25 teams.
Since Chelsea Gray went down, Duke has gone 2-0 against top 25 teams (Florida State and Maryland, on the road, by 16). This should show the selection committee that Duke is a robust team capable of top-level basketball even without their star point guard.
Ordinarily this sort of resumé would be strong enough to pencil Duke into the #1 seed, barring a slip-up in the ACC tournament. But most every source (Creme, the AP poll, RPI, RealtimeRPI's power rankings, pilight's incredible Field of 64 model) puts Stanford ahead of Duke. Stanford, the most reliable team in past ten years, is once again the odds-on favorite to win the Pac-12. They also deserve accolades for managing to knock off Baylor this year, a feat achieved by no other team since 2011. Basically their one big knock is that they have now lost twice at the formerly impregnable Maples Pavilion since then (Connecticut and Cal), whereas Duke has only lost once, albeit spectacularly, to Connecticut on the road.
If the S curve holds out (still a big if), Stanford and Duke will be the #4 and #5 teams and will probably meet in the same regional, which will probably be Spokane. I don't think there would be a geographic-proximity reward for Stanford. First, Spokane is 900 miles from Stanford, farther away than Chicago is from New York, though it is true that eastern Washington is probably more familiar with Pac-12 teams. Second and more importantly, the selection committee hasn't shown a history of artificially boosting Stanford's seed although Stanford usually plays somewhere in the west. There's no need for that. Stanford and Duke were 1-2 in the Fresno regional last year, but they were reversed for the much-closer-to-Stanford Berkeley regional in 2009. In the 2008 Spokane regional, an ACC team was number 1, and Stanford was number 2.
Now in:
LSU
Vanderbilt
Now out:
Iowa
St. Mary's
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big 10: 6
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2
The S-Factor was impressed by Duke's wins over Maryland and Florida State, enough that they are now slotted as the third #1, ahead of Connecticut, the only team to beat the Blue Devils this year. The S-Factor knows nothing about Chelsea Gray's injury, of course; it only sees a one-loss team, undefeated in the ACC, with five wins over top 25 teams.
Since Chelsea Gray went down, Duke has gone 2-0 against top 25 teams (Florida State and Maryland, on the road, by 16). This should show the selection committee that Duke is a robust team capable of top-level basketball even without their star point guard.
Ordinarily this sort of resumé would be strong enough to pencil Duke into the #1 seed, barring a slip-up in the ACC tournament. But most every source (Creme, the AP poll, RPI, RealtimeRPI's power rankings, pilight's incredible Field of 64 model) puts Stanford ahead of Duke. Stanford, the most reliable team in past ten years, is once again the odds-on favorite to win the Pac-12. They also deserve accolades for managing to knock off Baylor this year, a feat achieved by no other team since 2011. Basically their one big knock is that they have now lost twice at the formerly impregnable Maples Pavilion since then (Connecticut and Cal), whereas Duke has only lost once, albeit spectacularly, to Connecticut on the road.
If the S curve holds out (still a big if), Stanford and Duke will be the #4 and #5 teams and will probably meet in the same regional, which will probably be Spokane. I don't think there would be a geographic-proximity reward for Stanford. First, Spokane is 900 miles from Stanford, farther away than Chicago is from New York, though it is true that eastern Washington is probably more familiar with Pac-12 teams. Second and more importantly, the selection committee hasn't shown a history of artificially boosting Stanford's seed although Stanford usually plays somewhere in the west. There's no need for that. Stanford and Duke were 1-2 in the Fresno regional last year, but they were reversed for the much-closer-to-Stanford Berkeley regional in 2009. In the 2008 Spokane regional, an ACC team was number 1, and Stanford was number 2.
Now in:
LSU
Vanderbilt
Now out:
Iowa
St. Mary's
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big 10: 6
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2
Friday, February 15, 2013
A Non-Automated Bracket Prediction
Man, it's been awhile. Move over, S-Factor. Time for a bracket prediction by a human!
Last 4 in: Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Iowa, Washington
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this. The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.
2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes.
3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds. In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder. I doubt this will actually occur.
4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.
5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"? So weird.
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this. The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.
2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes.
3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds. In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder. I doubt this will actually occur.
4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.
5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"? So weird.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Duke Still Has a Lot to Prove
Right now Duke is a number one seed, according to ESPN's Charlie Creme. And it's tough to argue with their resume: their only loss of the season was to Connecticut this week and before that game their average margin of victory was over 30 points.
But those lopsided victories have mostly been at the expense of some cupcake teams. Before the Connecticut game, Duke had played just one top 25 team (Cal) and one more top 50 team (Michigan). By contrast, when Connecticut met Duke, the Huskies were playing their seventh top 25 team this year and their eleventh top 50 team.
Strength of schedule weakness is the reason Duke is number 12 in RPI (they have played the 72nd most strenuous schedule in NCAA Division 1 this year so far), and it is also the reason that they possess a 3-seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. But fear not, Blue Devils! By the end of the season Duke will have played seven top 25 teams (North Carolina twice, Maryland twice, Florida State once) and four teams ranked 26 to 50 in RPI (Miami twice, Virginia once). Their strength of schedule still won't be as difficult as Connecticut's (on track for 11 top 25 teams and 15 top 50 teams), but clearly Duke's toughest challenges of the season lie in front of them.
Now in:
Albany
Belmont
Middle Tennessee St.
Pacific (1/21)
Duquesne (1/21)
Chattanooga (1/21)
Central Michigan (1/21)
Wichita State (1/21)
Cal Poly (1/21)
Montana State (1/21)
SMU (1/21)
Army (1/21)
Longwood (1/21)
Now out:
Boston U.
Tennessee Tech
Western Kentucky
Georgetown (1/21)
Florida (1/21)
Minnesota (1/21)
CSU Northridge (1/21)
UTEP (1/21)
Montana (1/21)
Davidson (1/21)
Liberty (1/21)
Akron (1/21)
Lehigh (1/21)
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
PAC 12: 4
Colonial: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big West: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
But those lopsided victories have mostly been at the expense of some cupcake teams. Before the Connecticut game, Duke had played just one top 25 team (Cal) and one more top 50 team (Michigan). By contrast, when Connecticut met Duke, the Huskies were playing their seventh top 25 team this year and their eleventh top 50 team.
Strength of schedule weakness is the reason Duke is number 12 in RPI (they have played the 72nd most strenuous schedule in NCAA Division 1 this year so far), and it is also the reason that they possess a 3-seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. But fear not, Blue Devils! By the end of the season Duke will have played seven top 25 teams (North Carolina twice, Maryland twice, Florida State once) and four teams ranked 26 to 50 in RPI (Miami twice, Virginia once). Their strength of schedule still won't be as difficult as Connecticut's (on track for 11 top 25 teams and 15 top 50 teams), but clearly Duke's toughest challenges of the season lie in front of them.
Now in:
Albany
Belmont
Middle Tennessee St.
Pacific (1/21)
Duquesne (1/21)
Chattanooga (1/21)
Central Michigan (1/21)
Wichita State (1/21)
Cal Poly (1/21)
Montana State (1/21)
SMU (1/21)
Army (1/21)
Longwood (1/21)
Now out:
Boston U.
Tennessee Tech
Western Kentucky
Georgetown (1/21)
Florida (1/21)
Minnesota (1/21)
CSU Northridge (1/21)
UTEP (1/21)
Montana (1/21)
Davidson (1/21)
Liberty (1/21)
Akron (1/21)
Lehigh (1/21)
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
ACC: 6
PAC 12: 4
Colonial: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big West: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Six-Point Bounces: Earned and Unearned
There were two great games involving great teams last night: Tennessee escaped with a win over Kentucky, but RPI no. 1 Duke fell to North Carolina. In the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, Tennessee moved up to the number two position while Duke fell to the number four position. North Carolina, as would be expected, gained six positions to number 12 and a predicted 3 seed.
But the strangest S-Factor movement occured on the bubble. Despite not playing a game last night, Northwestern moved up six positions and is now shown in the field as an 11 seed. Their RPI did not budge.
The reason for the jump? Minnesota moved from RPI #101 to RPI #100, and LSU moved from RPI #51 to RPI #50. Northwestern has a loss to Minnesota that is no longer a sub-100 loss, and the Wildcats also have a win against LSU that is now a top 50 win.
North Carolina and Northwestern jumped by the same amount in one day. One could say that a numeric wiggle is just as important as a hard-fought win over a top-rated opponent. But it's not true: the latter is much more important than the former. Numbers are just funny that way.
Now in: Northwestern
Now out: Boston College
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
But the strangest S-Factor movement occured on the bubble. Despite not playing a game last night, Northwestern moved up six positions and is now shown in the field as an 11 seed. Their RPI did not budge.
The reason for the jump? Minnesota moved from RPI #101 to RPI #100, and LSU moved from RPI #51 to RPI #50. Northwestern has a loss to Minnesota that is no longer a sub-100 loss, and the Wildcats also have a win against LSU that is now a top 50 win.
North Carolina and Northwestern jumped by the same amount in one day. One could say that a numeric wiggle is just as important as a hard-fought win over a top-rated opponent. But it's not true: the latter is much more important than the former. Numbers are just funny that way.
Now in: Northwestern
Now out: Boston College
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Monday, January 24, 2011
The Lone Undefeated
A crazy come-from-behind win by Duke over North Carolina State on Sunday keeps the Blue Devils at the top of the College Women's Hoops S-Factor standings. Freshman Chelsea Gray's layup with 12 seconds left kept Duke's undefeated season alive for at least a few more days. (One week from today, Duke squares off with Connecticut.) With Florida Gulf Coast losing last week for the first time all season, Duke is now the only undefeated team in the nation, but they are ranked third in the country behind Baylor and Connecticut. Duke's stratospheric RPI is due in part to the fact that they have played and beaten seven top 25 RPI teams this year, the most in the country (second place is Connecticut at six, followed by Baylor and Stanford with four each).
Now in: Navy, Syracuse, Wisconsin
Now out: Army, St. John's, Vanderbilt
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Now in: Navy, Syracuse, Wisconsin
Now out: Army, St. John's, Vanderbilt
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Cardinals Rise
The biggest game last night was probably Duke versus Kentucky, which Duke won thanks to Jasmine Thomas's 24 points and three blocked shots. But the biggest game in terms of movement in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was Louisville versus St. John's.
St. John's has yet to beat a team ranked in the top 50 in RPI, and prior to last week, their biggest marquee game was arguably against Marist in the season opener. But St. John's had amassed an impressive-sounding 12-1 record, and were ranked in the AP poll. They lost at Maryland in a game Maryland never trailed, and now have lost to Louisville. Their next two games: DePaul and Connecticut. St. John's may start the Big East season 1-3 (the one win coming from a Seton Hall game in the beginning of December).
Louisville, meanwhile, is in the process of turning the ship around after losing to both Marist and Houston in the Duel in the Desert. In this win over St. John's, four Cardinals scored in double-digits, including a double-double the hard way for Shoni Schimmel (11 points, 11 assists). Next up for them is a less-than-dominant Pittsburgh and a challenging-but-beatable Notre Dame. Two wins will serve Louisville's tournament resumé quite well.
Now in: Georgia, LSU
Now out: Oklahoma State, St. John's
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
St. John's has yet to beat a team ranked in the top 50 in RPI, and prior to last week, their biggest marquee game was arguably against Marist in the season opener. But St. John's had amassed an impressive-sounding 12-1 record, and were ranked in the AP poll. They lost at Maryland in a game Maryland never trailed, and now have lost to Louisville. Their next two games: DePaul and Connecticut. St. John's may start the Big East season 1-3 (the one win coming from a Seton Hall game in the beginning of December).
Louisville, meanwhile, is in the process of turning the ship around after losing to both Marist and Houston in the Duel in the Desert. In this win over St. John's, four Cardinals scored in double-digits, including a double-double the hard way for Shoni Schimmel (11 points, 11 assists). Next up for them is a less-than-dominant Pittsburgh and a challenging-but-beatable Notre Dame. Two wins will serve Louisville's tournament resumé quite well.
Now in: Georgia, LSU
Now out: Oklahoma State, St. John's
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
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