January 18 Update: The Six Chart Toppers This Year

The Baylor Lady Bears have become the sixth team to top the College Women's Hoops S-Factor at some point this year. The five others are Connecticut, Stanford, South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall.

Now in:
Kansas State
Villanova
Hofstra
Bryant

Now out:
North Carolina State
Northwestern
Elon
Robert Morris

Still out:
South Florida
Duke

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
(1) South Carolina
(3) Kentucky
(4) Mississippi State
(5) Florida
(6) Missouri
(7) Tennessee
(8) Georgia
(9) Texas A&M

Pac 12: 7
(2) Stanford
(2) Arizona State
(2) Oregon State
(3) UCLA
(3) Washington
(4) USC
(5) Utah

Big Ten: 6
(3) Ohio State
(4) Maryland
(5) Purdue
(6) Michigan State
(7) Iowa
(8) Rutgers

Big 12: 6
(1) Baylor
(1) Texas
(4) Oklahoma
(5) Oklahoma State
(9) West Virginia
(9) Kansas State

ACC: 5
(2) Notre Dame
(6) Louisville
(7) Florida State
(8) Syracuse
(8) Miami (FL)

Big East: 4
(6) St. John's
(9) Seton Hall
(10) DePaul
(11) Villanova

Atlantic 10: 2
(7) George Washington
(10) Duquesne

West Coast: 2
(10) BYU
(10) San Diego

American: 1
(1) Connecticut

S-Factor and Duke: A Love Affair

Okay, so it can no longer be avoided: when the final model run takes place one week from today, the S-Factor is going to end up showing Duke as a number one-seed. Either Connecticut or Stanford, almost unanimously shown as one seeds by other bracketology sites, is going to be shown as a two-seed.  Connecticut will be no lower than #4 overall if they win the Big East tournament, but if they lose in the championship game or before, they will almost certainly be shown where they are right now, in the #5 overall spot.

I outlined the case for Duke back in February. Since then, two bracket-changing events have happened: Duke lost to 50th-ranked-in-RPI Miami, and Duke killed it in the ACC tournament, triumphing in the championship by 19 points over North Carolina.  On the one hand, that loss to Miami is the only loss by any of the top 5 teams (Baylor, Stanford, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Duke) to a team outside the top 25. On the other hand, Duke won both the regular season and the conference tournament of the ACC, and they went 5-0 against top 25 teams since Chelsea Gray's injury.

Still, Connecticut and Stanford seem like objectively better teams.  They have losses only to teams that will be #1 or #2 seeds in the tournament, and they both have more blowouts of 20+ points (Connecticut 24, Stanford 18, Duke 16, none since Chelsea Gray's injury).  Connecticut at the very least should definitely be ahead of Duke, if for no other reason than the 30 point blowout they handed to Duke.

Now in:
St. John's
UT Martin
Seattle
Stetson
Navy


Now out:
Illinois
Eastern Illinois
Utah State
Florida Gulf Coast
Army

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2

New Human-Made Bracket Guess

I've used my puny human brain to craft a new bracket prediction:

This differs from the S-Factor in the following notable ways:

1. The S-Factor favors Creighton and Duquesne to get in, I favor Iowa and Miami to get in. Iowa gets in because they have many more impressive wins than the other three bubble teams I mentioned, despite their February slump. Miami gets in because their best long-ago win (Penn State) is more impressive than Creighton's best long-ago win (Nebraska) and Duquesne's best long-ago win (Delaware). 

2. The S-Factor still has Duke as the #3 overall, a shade ahead of Connecticut. Connecticut will definitely pass them by the time the season is done (they have more basketball left to play than does Duke), and I believe Stanford is a slightly more deserving team of the final #1 due to their win over Baylor.

3. The S-Factor has Gonzaga as a 9 seed. I bumped them up to a 7 seed so that Notre Dame didn't have to play on someone else's home court. I chose to bump high to a 7 rather than low to a 10 because I think it's more fair to make 10 seeds play away games than it would be to make 7 seeds play away games.  Note: this applies to LSU as well, though S-Factor has them in at a 7 seed  anyways.

4.  I think the committee will be a lot kinder to Green Bay (assuming they win out and finish the season with 2 losses) than the S-Factor is. I stuck them in as a 10 in this bracket, but I think if they win out, an 8 seed is their absolute floor and even a 6 seed wouldn't be surprising.

The Case for Duke

In today's bracketology update, Charlie Creme says that the idea of Duke losing its 2-seed will have to be put on hold for now.  I'm going to go one further: why not a 1-seed?

The S-Factor was impressed by Duke's wins over Maryland and Florida State, enough that they are now slotted as the third #1, ahead of Connecticut, the only team to beat the Blue Devils this year.  The S-Factor knows nothing about Chelsea Gray's injury, of course; it only sees a one-loss team, undefeated in the ACC, with five wins over top 25 teams.

Since Chelsea Gray went down, Duke has gone 2-0 against top 25 teams (Florida State and Maryland, on the road, by 16).  This should show the selection committee that Duke is a robust team capable of top-level basketball even without their star point guard. 

Ordinarily this sort of resumé would be strong enough to pencil Duke into the #1 seed, barring a slip-up in the ACC tournament.  But most every source (Creme, the AP poll, RPI, RealtimeRPI's power rankings, pilight's incredible Field of 64 model) puts Stanford ahead of Duke.  Stanford, the most reliable team in past ten years, is once again the odds-on favorite to win the Pac-12. They also deserve accolades for managing to knock off Baylor this year, a feat achieved by no other team since 2011.  Basically their one big knock is that they have now lost twice at the formerly impregnable Maples Pavilion since then (Connecticut and Cal), whereas Duke has only lost once, albeit spectacularly, to Connecticut on the road.  

If the S curve holds out (still a big if), Stanford and Duke will be the #4 and #5 teams and will probably meet in the same regional, which will probably be Spokane.  I don't think there would be a geographic-proximity reward for Stanford.  First, Spokane is 900 miles from Stanford, farther away than Chicago is from New York, though it is true that eastern Washington is probably more familiar with Pac-12 teams.  Second and more importantly, the selection committee hasn't shown a history of artificially boosting Stanford's seed although Stanford usually plays somewhere in the west.  There's no need for that.  Stanford and Duke were 1-2 in the Fresno regional last year, but they were reversed for the much-closer-to-Stanford Berkeley regional in 2009. In the 2008 Spokane regional, an ACC team was number 1, and Stanford was number 2. 



Now in:
LSU
Vanderbilt

Now out:
Iowa
St. Mary's


Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big 10: 6
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2
 

UConn tops both Stanford and S-Factor

The game of the year was supposed to have been played on Saturday, but Stanford unfortunately didn't show up to play.  Or rather, Connecticut put on a walloping (in Maples Pavilion!) crushing the former number one team 61-35.  There was also a corresponding surge in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, with Connecticut gaining two positions to top the chart.

Like Stanford, Dayton played and got humiliated this weekend (at least it wasn't on their home court), being beaten by Bowling Green 65-40.  Unlike with Stanford, Dayton did not suffer any ramifications in the S-Factor rankings.  This is because two of their opponents that they have previously beaten, Toledo and Michigan State, moved into the top 25 of RPI this weekend, which therefore improved Dayton's top 25 wins to 3 for 3. 

Now in: 
Western Kentucky
Minnesota
Delaware
Georgetown
Ohio St.
Louisiana St.
Murray St.

Now out:
UA Little Rock
Rutgers
St. Mary's
Texas Tech
Kansas St.
New Mexico St.
UT-Martin

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Big 12: 6
ACC: 5
PAC 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2

Pac 10 Tournament Chances

The Pac 10 tournament is down to the semifinals. Arizona will face top seeded Stanford, while California will face second seeded UCLA. As for the Pac 10's third and fifth seeds, they lost last night. Layshia Clarendon of California had 46% of her teams points (22) as the Bears beat third-seeded Arizona State 48-43. Senior Ify Ibekwe got a double-double and was one of three Wildcats to score in double figures as Arizona took down USC 72-61.

The rest of the Pac 10's tournament prospects break down like this. Most bracketologists put Stanford in the tournament as a No. 1 seed and UCLA in as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

The third place finisher in the regular season, Arizona State, has looked really bad recently. But it would be hard to deny a team that finished 11-7 in conference with an RPI of 39 and a victory over DePaul earlier in the season, despite the fact that in three of their last five games they have been unable to score more than 50 points.

USC has had a relatively high RPI for most of the season, but the glory days of 2010 led to a disappointing conference season in 2011. And 10-8 in the Pac 10 is about equivalent to 7-9 in the Big 12. They needed to at least get to the semis to have a decent shot at the NCAA Tournament.

California, at 7-11 in conference, lost way too many games that they should have won, and so an at-large bid is probably not in their future.

Three teams may be all the Pac 10 gets. But the College Women's Hoops S-Factor now puts Arizona in the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid for the first time since January 6, 63 days ago! (Check the chart out). No other team with a predicted at-large bid even comes close in terms of most time spent below the at-large line after having been above the line previously (Kansas State's 38 days in purgatory is second). And of all the non-Stanford, non-UCLA teams in conference, Arizona has had the best run over the last month, winning eight out of their last nine games. Which is a huge turnaround from having gone 2-7 in the nine games previous to that. They are peaking at exactly the right time.

________________

Now in: Arizona
Now out: Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

If Womens Basketball Was Like Boxing

Bet you didn't know there was a title fight last night. 17th-ranked Miami had won 17 in a row coming in to last night's game against 22nd-ranked Florida State, but the Hurricanes lost in Tallahassee 66-59. If collegiate women's basketball worked like boxing, Florida State would now posess a number one seed.

To make this boxing analogy work, let's say that a title belt is equivalent to a #1 seed in the tournament. And let's assume that the top four teams in the preseason AP poll got to have the #1 seeds. These belonged to UConn, Baylor, Stanford and Tennessee on November 1st. Furthermore, let's say that every single game played is like when someone challenges a champion for his title. When Connecticut beat Baylor on November 16th, Connecticut assumed control of the 2nd #1 seed (let's call this the WBO belt). But when Connecticut lost to Stanford on December 30th, they gave up both their own belt (WBA, let's say) and the WBO belt.

If you follow this analogy, the #1 seeds today would be: Stanford, Stanford, Stanford and Florida State. See the chart below.

Because Smokin' Joe Tennessee's first loss was to Georgetown Foreman, and Georgetown's first loss after that was to Miami Ali, and Miami's first loss after that was to Florida State last night, Florida State now has the last #1 seed.

Obviously this has no bearing in reality. Washington State, worst BCS-conference team in the nation, briefly held the #1 seed when they beat Cal (who beat Arizona State, who beat DePaul, who beat Stanford). I guess they would be the Leon Spinks of womens basketball.



Now in: Southern University
Now out: Alabama A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Happy New Year!

And what a crazy weekend. The Pac-10 and Big Ten conference seasons started since last I updated the numbers. In the Big Ten, highly-ranked Ohio State and highly-ranked Iowa are a combined 0-3 in conference games, having both lost to Michigan, a team that surged 32 spots in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor rankings to #9.

Tennessee State, in a game against Georgia Tech, shot 6% (3 for 50) from the field on their way to setting a new NCAA record for fewest points in a game. Georgia Tech won 82-11. Tennessee State's three first half points was also a new record for least points in a half, coming on three free throws. The good news? Tennessee State nearly tripled their first half production in the second half.

Nebraska's Lindsey Moore achieved a triple double (12 points, 11 assists, 10 boards) against Florida A&M, the program's first.

The triumphant return of Whitney Hand to Oklahoma's lineup was not enough to overcome the sizeable duo of TCU's Emily Carter and Helena Sverrisdottir. Three Sooners fouled out in the 76-69 loss, which allowed TCU to attempt 38 free throws, 27 of them in the second half alone. Oklahoma coach Sherri Coale called it "obscene".

And I hear there was some game out in the bay area. Something about a streak ending.



Now in: Arizona, Texas, Louisville
Now out: LSU, Purdue, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

California Creamin'

With every victory now, the Connecticut Huskies set a new Division 1 record for most consecutive wins, and they got another one last night. The Huskies made it out of snowy Connecticut to travel to Stockton, California, where they creamed Pacific 85-42 for their ninetieth straight victory.

But more impressive was Stanford's victory over Xavier yesterday in the friendly confines of Maples Pavilion. It was a rematch of the elite eight matchup from last year which was won by Stanford by an amazing drive performed by Jeanette Pohlen in the final 4.4 seconds that ended in a layup at the buzzer. This game was supposed to be close, but Stanford creamed Xavier 89-52. The victory shot Stanford up 13 spots in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor to number 10 and a predicted 3-seed. I'd wager the ranking will be higher by season's end.

This sets up Connecticut vs. Stanford tomorrow, which will of course be a huge game.

Other events that happened in California yesterday:

• UCLA lost their first game of the season at home to LSU, which propels LSU into a predicted at-large bid according to the S-Factor.



• Texas A&M slammed a formerly-ascendant Drexel team 74-45 in San Diego behind an impressive performance from Danielle Adams and a double-double from Adaora Elonu.



• Texas beat Cincinnati 80-77 in San Diego with a 3-pointer by Chassidy Fussell with 1.3 seconds left. Texas lies just outside of the S-Factor at-large bids, a status that will change as the season progresses.

Now in: Duquesne, LSU
Now out: Saint Joseph's, Drexel

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The State of Connecticut Beats Florida State

I'd be willing to bet that Florida State was expecting to lose one game out of the two games in a row that they play in the State of Connecticut. I'd also be willing to bet that the Seminoles were expecting the loss to come in the second of those two games and not the first, but instead it was Yale that snapped its 7-game losing streak to best Florida State by 6 points. As a result, Florida State plummets 23 positions in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor and is now in 40th place, the final at-large team in the tournament. (Yale, meanwhile, jumps 74 positions to 198th place.)

The S-Factor now puts Tennessee in as a #1 seed due to their win over Stanford, whose coach Tara VanDerveer is still awaiting her 800th career NCAA win.

Purdue, USC, and Vanderbilt now replace Louisville, Nebraska, and Michigan (all teams that lost over the weekend) in the predicted tournament bracket.

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big 12: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4

DePaul beats Stanford

Tara VanDerveer has to wait for her 800th win, as DePaul shut down previously-undefeated Stanford last night. As a result of this quality victory, DePaul shoots up to fourth place in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor and a #1 seed, much the same way Baylor's win over Tennessee a couple of days ago shot Baylor to a #1 seed temporarily. As of now, the S-Factor gives three of the four #1 seeds to Big East teams, a scenario that almost certainly won't happen. But the Big East is the only major conference to have played some conference games, which gives every team in the conference an advantage in the S-Factor. Can't wait 'til January when the rest of the conferences start their regular season!

Conferences with multiple teams:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC 10: 4
SEC: 3