Final Update: March 14

This is the final update of numbers for the 2015-2016 season. I've also got a final non-automated human-generated bracket prediction on the Bracket Prediction page. Spoiler alert: it looks like this:

(click on the image for better viewing)


I can't recall any year where so few #1 seeds from conference tournaments earned automatic bids to the NCAA tournament. But almost all of these upsets came in conferences where only one team was going to get a bid anyways. The exception is the West Coast Conference, where San Francisco's two-point victory over the BYU Cougars in the championship game effectively means that one fewer bubble team is going to get into the tournament. The popped team, in the S-Factor's opinion, is North Carolina State. Call me skeptical.



Now in:
San Francisco
Army
Missouri State
Troy
Buffalo
Jacksonville
Robert Morris
Alabama State

Now out:
North Carolina State
Florida Gulf Coast
Central Michigan
Arkansas Little Rock
Northern Iowa
Bucknell
Southern U.
Sacred Heart

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
(1) South Carolina
(3) Kentucky
(4) Florida
(4) Mississippi State
(5) Texas A&M
(6) Georgia
(7) Tennessee
(8) Missouri
(10) Auburn

ACC: 5
(1) Notre Dame
(3) Louisville
(4) Syracuse
(5) Florida State
(7) Miami (FL)

Big 12: 5
(1) Baylor
(2) Texas
(5) Oklahoma 
(6) Oklahoma State
(6) West Virginia

Pac 12: 5
(1) Oregon State
(2) Arizona State
(3) UCLA
(3) Stanford
(5) Washington

Big Ten: 4
(2) Maryland
(4) Ohio State
(6) Michigan State
(9) Indiana

Atlantic 10: 5 lol nothing matters
(7) George Washington
(8) St. Bonaventure
(8) Duquesne
(10) Saint Louis
(10) VCU

Big East: 3
(7) DePaul
(9) St. John's
(10) Seton Hall

Ivy League: 2
(9) Pennsylvania
(9) Princeton

American: 2
(2) Connecticut
(11) South Florida

West Coast: 2
(8) BYU
(12) San Francisco

March 15 Update - Please No Longer Consider The Wolfpack

Normally I don't post on Sundays, but I had an opportunity tonight to manually correct all of my data from teams in the ACC.  The errors in the data stem from RealTimeRPI.com and their lack of tournament data from the ACC, plus a single game from February between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the Boston College Eagles.  I manually corrected the RPI, the overall record, and the conference record for every team in the conference. The result is that N.C. State isn't as highly ranked as they had been before, plummeting from 42nd to 60th in the rankings and out of the range predicted for selection into the tournament.  Primarily because of this shift, Georgia Tech sneaks into the rankings today.

I will post once more once RealTimeRPI.com updates


Now in:
Georgia Tech
Cal State Northridge
Boise State
Northwestern State
St. Francis (NY)
Alabama State

Now out:
North Carolina State
Hawaii
New Mexico
Stephen F. Austin
Robert Morris
Southern U.

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
PAC 12: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big East: 2
West Coast: 2

February 23 Update: Consider the Wolfpack

Here's how I stack up against Charlie Creme this week.

Women's College Basketball Bracketology Comparison - February 23, 2015

Seed	Creme (before proced-ural bumps)	New S-Factor	Old S-Factor
Connecticut	(1)	(3)	(3)
Notre Dame	(1)	(1)	(1)
Tennessee	(1)	(1)	(1)
South Carolina	(1)	(1)	(2)
Baylor	(2)	(1)	(1)
Oregon State	(2)	(2)	(2)
Florida State	(2)	(2)	(2)
Maryland	(2)	(2)	(1)
Duke	(3)	(3)	(4)
Iowa	(3)	(5)	(3)
Louisville	(3)	(3)	(2)
Arizona State	(3)	(2)	(3)
North Carolina	(4)	(4)	(4)
Kentucky	(4)	(5)	(5)
Texas A&M	(4)	(3)	(3)
California	(4)	(4)	(5)
Mississippi State	(5)	(4)	(4)
Stanford	(5)	(5)	(7)
George Washington	(5)	(6)	(4)
Rutgers	(5)	(8)	(8)
Oklahoma	(6)	(5)	(6)
Princeton	(6)	(10)	(6)
Washington	(6)	(6)	(9)
Syracuse	(6)	(6)	(6)
Dayton	(7)	(9)	(5)
South Florida	(7)	(7)	(6)
Minnesota	(7)	(7)	(7)
Ohio State	(7)	(6)	(8)
UW Green Bay	(8)	(11)	(9)
Texas	(8)	(4)	(7)
Northwestern	(8)	(8)	(8)
Chattanooga	(8)	(9)	(8)
Nebraska	(9)	(9)	(10)
Pittsburgh	(9)	(7)	(9)
James Madison	(9)	(11)	(9)
Florida Gulf Coast	(9)	(7)	(5)
Miami	(10)	(10)	(11)
Oklahoma State	(10)	(8)	(10)
Arkansas	(10)	(10)	---
Western Kentucky	(10)	(12)	(12)
Seton Hall	(11)	(11)	(10)
DePaul	(11)	(12)	(11)
LSU	(11)	(11)	---
Gonzaga	(11)	(9)	(7)
West Virginia	(12)	---	---
Quinnipiac	(12)	(13)	(13)
Tulane	(12)	---	---
Iowa State	(12)	(8)	(12)
Colorado State	(13)	(14)	(14)
UA Little Rock	(13)	(12)	(11)
Drake	(13)	(13)	(13)
Ohio	(13)	(13)	(13)
Hawaii	(14)	(13)	(13)
American	(14)	(14)	(14)
Liberty	(14)	(15)	(15)
Maine	(14)	(14)	(14)
UT Martin	(15)	(15)	(15)
Stephen F. Austin	(15)	(15)	(15)
Montana	(15)	(15)	(15)
South Dakota	(15)	(14)	(14)
Hampton	(16)	(16)	(16)
New Mexico State	(16)	(16)	(16)
Texas Southern	(16)	(16)	(16)
NEC winner	(16)	(16)	(16)
N.C. State	---	(10)	(12)
TCU	---	(12)	---
San Diego	---	---	(10)
Pacific	---	---	(11)
BYU	---	---	(12)

I've got North Carolina State shown in the tournament in both of my models which, given their win against then-10th-ranked Duke last night, my conviction about this pick is pretty strong (as long as the Wolfpack win at least one game in the ACC tournament).

Charlie Creme and I differ on which team from the Big 12 will slip into the tournament by default. He's got West Virginia in and I've got TCU, but I think we both agree that neither of these teams truly deserves a spot in the tournament and will be lucky to be in the tournament even if no unexpected conference tournament winners get in.

My old formulation once again highly favors West Coast Conference teams in a way that does not reflect the history of the NCAA Selection Committee's choices. I can't see a reality where Gonzaga, Pacific, BYU and San Diego all get into the NCAA tournament. This was one of the reasons I decided to change the algorithm before this season started.


Now in:
N.C. State
Seton Hall
TCU
Maine

Now out:
Vanderbilt
Kansas State
Georgia
Albany

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC 12: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Big East: 2