It's not going to happen, Northern Iowa won't get an automatic bid. But Northern Iowa (RPI 57) has appeared as an at-large bid now in the S-Factor, despite losing to the Salukis of Southern Illinois this weekend (RPI 185). The reason is this: Northern Iowa's wins over Creighton (RPI 22) and Kansas State (RPI 19) give them more top 25 wins than the entire non-Maryland Big Ten conference combined.
Last 4 in:
Northern Iowa
Northwestern
Michigan State
Harvard
First 4 out:
California
Virginia Tech
Green Bay
Oklahoma State
Now in:
Northern Iowa
Michigan State
Pennsylvania
Wright State
Bethune-Cookman
Now out:
Virginia Tech
Green Bay
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
Hampton
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
(1) Mississippi State
(2) South Carolina
(4) Texas A&M
(5) Tennessee
(5) Kentucky
(5) Missouri
(7) LSU
(8) Auburn
ACC: 7
(2) Notre Dame
(2) Florida State
(3) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Louisville
(6) Syracuse
(7) Miami (FL)
Pac 12: 6
(1) Oregon State
(2) Stanford
(3) Washington
(4) UCLA
(6) Arizona State
(9) Oregon
Big Ten: 5
(4) Maryland
(7) Ohio State
(9) Michigan
(10) Northwestern
(10) Michigan State
American: 4
(1) Connecticut
(7) Temple
(8) South Florida
(9) Tulane
Big 12: 4
(1) Baylor
(3) Texas
(6) Kansas State
(6) Oklahoma
Big East: 3
(5) DePaul
(8) Marquette
(8) Creighton
Ivy: 2
(10) Harvard
(13) Pennsylvania
Missouri Valley: 2
(10) Northern Iowa
(11) Drake
Showing posts with label Creighton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Creighton. Show all posts
Monday, February 6, 2017
Monday, March 3, 2014
March 3 Update: The SEC Was Totally Bonkers This Year
Everybody, look how crazy this SEC tournament bracket is! Florida (RPI 65) is a 5-seed, LSU (RPI 12) is a 10-seed! Five schools finished with a 7-9 record in the SEC this year, 6th through 10th place. I have no idea what's going to happen in the SEC tournament, but I'm really excited about it!
Now in:
Fordham (Fordham is one of four Atlantic 10 teams whose only top-25-RPI win is over St. Joseph's. St. Joseph's has an unusually high RPI for the number of middle-tier teams it's lost to. Fordham is one of these teams, and will not be going to the NCAA tournament unless they win the Atlantic 10 tournament.)
Central Michigan (The Chippewas played a harder non-conference schedule this year than Bowling Green and have the MAC's only top-50-RPI win out-of-conference (Dayton). Still, I don't think the MAC is a two-bid conference this year.)
Minnesota (It finally happened. Charlie Creme has been calling it for weeks. Minnesota finally cracked into these rankings, despite the fact that their best win is against Chattanooga.)
Now out:
Florida (Very big drop that has more to do with RPI rankings of Vanderbilt and St. John's tanking than because of their loss to Texas A&M on Sunday, which was expected. I would wager Florida still makes the field despite their poor RPI.)
San Diego (Good riddance.)
Creighton (1. They beat Villanova, but Villanova is no longer a top-50-RPI team. 2. They beat St. John's, but St. John's is no longer a top-25-RPI team. 3. They lost to Marquette.)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(10) St. Joseph's
(10) Fordham
Big East Teams:
(7) DePaul
(10) St. John's
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Nebraska
(4) Purdue
(5) Iowa
(5) Michigan State
(11) Minnesota
Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(3) Baylor
(6) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(9) Iowa State
Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(7) Oregon State
(8) Arizona State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(8) Vanderbilt
(9) LSU
(9) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(6) BYU
Now in:
Fordham (Fordham is one of four Atlantic 10 teams whose only top-25-RPI win is over St. Joseph's. St. Joseph's has an unusually high RPI for the number of middle-tier teams it's lost to. Fordham is one of these teams, and will not be going to the NCAA tournament unless they win the Atlantic 10 tournament.)
Central Michigan (The Chippewas played a harder non-conference schedule this year than Bowling Green and have the MAC's only top-50-RPI win out-of-conference (Dayton). Still, I don't think the MAC is a two-bid conference this year.)
Minnesota (It finally happened. Charlie Creme has been calling it for weeks. Minnesota finally cracked into these rankings, despite the fact that their best win is against Chattanooga.)
Now out:
Florida (Very big drop that has more to do with RPI rankings of Vanderbilt and St. John's tanking than because of their loss to Texas A&M on Sunday, which was expected. I would wager Florida still makes the field despite their poor RPI.)
San Diego (Good riddance.)
Creighton (1. They beat Villanova, but Villanova is no longer a top-50-RPI team. 2. They beat St. John's, but St. John's is no longer a top-25-RPI team. 3. They lost to Marquette.)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(10) St. Joseph's
(10) Fordham
Big East Teams:
(7) DePaul
(10) St. John's
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Nebraska
(4) Purdue
(5) Iowa
(5) Michigan State
(11) Minnesota
Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(3) Baylor
(6) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(9) Iowa State
Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(7) Oregon State
(8) Arizona State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(8) Vanderbilt
(9) LSU
(9) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(6) BYU
Monday, March 18, 2013
Final S-Factor of 2013
I ran the numbers one last time this morning. I have also made one last human-based bracket prediction.
In terms of 64-team selection, the one difference between the S-Factor and my bracket prediction is that I included West Virginia and left out Creighton. I felt that to really be in contention for an at-large bid, Creighton needed to have made it to the title game of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, and that didn't happen. I think they'll be left out despite their relatively high RPI of 41.
What I'm not at all sure about is which team should replace them. I put West Virginia in, but I would not be surprised if one of the regular-season-winning teams from weaker conferences (San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast, Toledo) was included in the field of 64. I know I wrote two weeks ago that Creighton and Toledo had decent chances to get into the tournament as at-large bids, but neither team made it to their conference tournament final. San Diego State and Florida Gulf Coast did make it to the final game, and so I think both of those teams stand a better chance. But I put West Virginia in the field because they proved themselves capable on more than two occasions of beating top 50 teams (Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State).
I feel that San Diego State, whose only win over a non-conference tournament-bound team was against Cal Poly, did not prove they could compete and win against the top teams.
The team that makes me the most nervous though is Florida Gulf Coast. They steamrolled through the Atlantic Sun conference, but they lost to Stetson in the tournament final. They have wins against tournament-bound LSU and Hampton, and 5 out of their 6 losses were against tournament-bound teams (assuming Charlotte gets in). I could totally see the selection committee sticking FGCU in the field ahead of four other small conference regular season champs with better RPI ranking (Creighton (I know, co-champs), San Diego State, Pacific, Toledo).
I guess we'll see tonight.
I have Charlotte in the field despite their 53rd ranked RPI. The S-Factor likes them even better than fellow Atlantic 10 conference mate Duquesne because of their 13-1 regular season record. Charlie Creme puts West Virginia in the field instead of Charlotte. Having both Duquesne and Charlotte in the field (in addition to Dayton and St. Joseph's) would be unusual: no more than three teams from the Atlantic 10 conference have been in the tournament since 1989.
What I'm not at all sure about is which team should replace them. I put West Virginia in, but I would not be surprised if one of the regular-season-winning teams from weaker conferences (San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast, Toledo) was included in the field of 64. I know I wrote two weeks ago that Creighton and Toledo had decent chances to get into the tournament as at-large bids, but neither team made it to their conference tournament final. San Diego State and Florida Gulf Coast did make it to the final game, and so I think both of those teams stand a better chance. But I put West Virginia in the field because they proved themselves capable on more than two occasions of beating top 50 teams (Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State).
I feel that San Diego State, whose only win over a non-conference tournament-bound team was against Cal Poly, did not prove they could compete and win against the top teams.
The team that makes me the most nervous though is Florida Gulf Coast. They steamrolled through the Atlantic Sun conference, but they lost to Stetson in the tournament final. They have wins against tournament-bound LSU and Hampton, and 5 out of their 6 losses were against tournament-bound teams (assuming Charlotte gets in). I could totally see the selection committee sticking FGCU in the field ahead of four other small conference regular season champs with better RPI ranking (Creighton (I know, co-champs), San Diego State, Pacific, Toledo).
I guess we'll see tonight.
I have Charlotte in the field despite their 53rd ranked RPI. The S-Factor likes them even better than fellow Atlantic 10 conference mate Duquesne because of their 13-1 regular season record. Charlie Creme puts West Virginia in the field instead of Charlotte. Having both Duquesne and Charlotte in the field (in addition to Dayton and St. Joseph's) would be unusual: no more than three teams from the Atlantic 10 conference have been in the tournament since 1989.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
New Human-Made Bracket Guess
I've used my puny human brain to craft a new bracket prediction:
This differs from the S-Factor in the following notable ways:
1. The S-Factor favors Creighton and Duquesne to get in, I favor Iowa and Miami to get in. Iowa gets in because they have many more impressive wins than the other three bubble teams I mentioned, despite their February slump. Miami gets in because their best long-ago win (Penn State) is more impressive than Creighton's best long-ago win (Nebraska) and Duquesne's best long-ago win (Delaware).
2. The S-Factor still has Duke as the #3 overall, a shade ahead of Connecticut. Connecticut will definitely pass them by the time the season is done (they have more basketball left to play than does Duke), and I believe Stanford is a slightly more deserving team of the final #1 due to their win over Baylor.
3. The S-Factor has Gonzaga as a 9 seed. I bumped them up to a 7 seed so that Notre Dame didn't have to play on someone else's home court. I chose to bump high to a 7 rather than low to a 10 because I think it's more fair to make 10 seeds play away games than it would be to make 7 seeds play away games. Note: this applies to LSU as well, though S-Factor has them in at a 7 seed anyways.
4. I think the committee will be a lot kinder to Green Bay (assuming they win out and finish the season with 2 losses) than the S-Factor is. I stuck them in as a 10 in this bracket, but I think if they win out, an 8 seed is their absolute floor and even a 6 seed wouldn't be surprising.
This differs from the S-Factor in the following notable ways:
1. The S-Factor favors Creighton and Duquesne to get in, I favor Iowa and Miami to get in. Iowa gets in because they have many more impressive wins than the other three bubble teams I mentioned, despite their February slump. Miami gets in because their best long-ago win (Penn State) is more impressive than Creighton's best long-ago win (Nebraska) and Duquesne's best long-ago win (Delaware).
2. The S-Factor still has Duke as the #3 overall, a shade ahead of Connecticut. Connecticut will definitely pass them by the time the season is done (they have more basketball left to play than does Duke), and I believe Stanford is a slightly more deserving team of the final #1 due to their win over Baylor.
3. The S-Factor has Gonzaga as a 9 seed. I bumped them up to a 7 seed so that Notre Dame didn't have to play on someone else's home court. I chose to bump high to a 7 rather than low to a 10 because I think it's more fair to make 10 seeds play away games than it would be to make 7 seeds play away games. Note: this applies to LSU as well, though S-Factor has them in at a 7 seed anyways.
4. I think the committee will be a lot kinder to Green Bay (assuming they win out and finish the season with 2 losses) than the S-Factor is. I stuck them in as a 10 in this bracket, but I think if they win out, an 8 seed is their absolute floor and even a 6 seed wouldn't be surprising.
Friday, February 15, 2013
A Non-Automated Bracket Prediction
Man, it's been awhile. Move over, S-Factor. Time for a bracket prediction by a human!
Last 4 in: Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Iowa, Washington
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this. The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.
2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes.
3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds. In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder. I doubt this will actually occur.
4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.
5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"? So weird.
First 4 out: West Virginia, St. Mary's, Creighton, Rutgers
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
Some comments:
1. Three of the four #1 seeds are Notre Dame, Connecticut and Baylor. No one even debates this. The fourth #1 seed will go to a winner of one of the other big conferences (Duke in the ACC, Stanford in the Pac-12, unlikely but possibly Penn State in the Big Ten). I chose Duke because I assumed Duke would go undefeated in conference.
2. Anyone who tries to do a bracket prediction and doesn't account for the geographic complexities of first round sites is not doing it right. This year there's a chance for home teams to play at 14 of the 16 sites. I believe Iowa and LSU will get an advantage from the selection committee over other bubble teams like West Virginia and Creighton, even if those other teams have marginally better tournament resumes.
3. Notre Dame is the only #1 seed that does not host the first and second rounds. Penn State and California are the only #2 seeds that do not host the first and second rounds. In a typical year, these low seeds would probably be sited on neutral courts rather than on a potential second-round opponent's court, but there are only two neutral courts this year (St. John's Queens, and Ohio State's Columbus). I stuck Notre Dame in Queens, but put Cal and Penn State in nightmare second round scenarios against the home team from Lubbock and the home team from Boulder. I doubt this will actually occur.
4. San Diego State is not an 11 seed. More like a 13 seed. They got bounced around the most in the name of balanced brackets, no potential intraconference matchups, and geographic necessity.
5. Charlotte gets in because they have a really good chance of going 13-1 in the A10 conference, and they beat St. Joseph's and Duquesne. But they don't play Dayton this year. How do you have 16 teams in your conference and not play at least 15 games, Atlantic "Ten"? So weird.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Mid-Major Monday
Besides the drubbing of North Carolina by Connecticut, Monday was a quiet day for the big conference teams. But Mondays are always busy days for teams from small conferences. The conference leaders from the Big South (Liberty), the Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State) and the Northeast Conference (St. Francis (PA)) all lost on Monday. Their presumed automatic bids were taken over by Gardner Webb, Robert Morris, and the Camels of Campbell College.
In addition, due to daily RPI fluctuation, Charlotte and Missouri State traded places, which means the Bears are now slated for an at-large bid according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. Missouri State is having another good season, and they are at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings along with Creighton and Northern Iowa. Creighton is credited with the Valley's presumed automatic bid just because of inertia: they held the conference lead on their own more recently than the other teams.
Now in: Robert Morris, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Missouri State
Now out: East Tennessee State, St. Francis (PA), Liberty, Charlotte
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
In addition, due to daily RPI fluctuation, Charlotte and Missouri State traded places, which means the Bears are now slated for an at-large bid according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. Missouri State is having another good season, and they are at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings along with Creighton and Northern Iowa. Creighton is credited with the Valley's presumed automatic bid just because of inertia: they held the conference lead on their own more recently than the other teams.
Now in: Robert Morris, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Missouri State
Now out: East Tennessee State, St. Francis (PA), Liberty, Charlotte
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
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