Now in:
Iowa State (Talk about playing your way in! Since I posted my "term paper" on how Iowa State was probably not going to get a tournament berth, the Cyclones ripped off two impressive wins over Texas and Oklahoma State, and put themselves back into the tournament.)
Creighton (The Blue Jays have now won four in a row. This fact combined with St. John's losing three in a row mean that Creighton is now in a three-way race for first in the wide open Big East going into the final week.)
Georgia Tech (Like I said on Monday, they sealed the deal with a win over Florida State. Even if they slip out of the S-Factor later for some reason, they're in.)
High Point (One Radford win away from the Big South regular season championship)
Texas Southern (The torch was passed: the Lady Tigers of Texas Southern are now alone atop the SWAC)
Now out:
Florida State (At best they'll be 7-9 in the ACC, and they've gone 4-9 in their last 13.)
Villanova (Six losses in the new Big East and no non-Creighton top 50 wins isn't going to get a bid)
VCU (VCU did the S-Factor a favor by losing on Wednesday. The Rams were never going to get a bid, even with a win.)
Winthrop (Losses to Liberty and High Point in the past two games put the Eagles behind High Point in the Big South)
Southern U. (The loss to Alabama State knocked Southern University out of the top of the SWAC standings)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(2) North Carolina State (will not be a 2-seed)
(4) Maryland
(6) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(3) Louisville (will not be a 3-seed)
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(5) Dayton
(8) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(8) DePaul
(9) St. John's
(11) Creighton
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Nebraska
(4) Purdue
(5) Iowa
(6) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(2) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(7) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(10) Iowa State
Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(9) Southern Mississippi
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) California
(6) Arizona State
(10) Oregon State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(8) LSU
(10) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego
Friday, February 28, 2014
Monday, February 24, 2014
February 24 Update
Now in:
Villanova (Creighton's big win over St. John's this weekend bumped Creighton's RPI rank up to 50th ... which means Villanova's February 1 win over the Blue Jays counts as a top 50 win now (their only one))
VCU (RPI 91 Atlantic 10 teams never make the tournament, so this counts as an error for the S-Factor)
Florida State (just two more winnable home games stand between the Seminoles and an 8-8 record in the ACC, which ought to be just barely good enough for a tournament berth)
Now out:
Georgia Tech (they're probably still in because of their win over North Carolina, but beating Florida State on Thursday would seal the deal)
St. Mary's (FINALLY!)
Southern California (lost 6 of the last 8, but their final two conference games are against Utah and Colorado, and 11-7 is likely)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(3) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(12) Florida State
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
(11) VCU
Big East Teams:
(8) St. John's
(9) DePaul
(11) Villanova
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(7) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(10) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) California
(6) Arizona State
(9) Oregon State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(4) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(7) LSU
(9) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego
Villanova (Creighton's big win over St. John's this weekend bumped Creighton's RPI rank up to 50th ... which means Villanova's February 1 win over the Blue Jays counts as a top 50 win now (their only one))
VCU (RPI 91 Atlantic 10 teams never make the tournament, so this counts as an error for the S-Factor)
Florida State (just two more winnable home games stand between the Seminoles and an 8-8 record in the ACC, which ought to be just barely good enough for a tournament berth)
Now out:
Georgia Tech (they're probably still in because of their win over North Carolina, but beating Florida State on Thursday would seal the deal)
St. Mary's (FINALLY!)
Southern California (lost 6 of the last 8, but their final two conference games are against Utah and Colorado, and 11-7 is likely)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(3) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(12) Florida State
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
(11) VCU
Big East Teams:
(8) St. John's
(9) DePaul
(11) Villanova
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(7) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(10) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) California
(6) Arizona State
(9) Oregon State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(4) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(7) LSU
(9) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego
Friday, February 21, 2014
February 21 Update: Iowa State's and Oklahoma's Diverging Paths
For years the Big 12 Conference has been well-represented in the NCAA tournament. 50% or more of its teams have been selected for the tournament in 13 out of the 17 years of the Big 12's existence. It has been 8 years since fewer than 6 teams were selected to go to the tournament, including the most recent two years since the Big 12 has been shrunk from twelve members to ten members.
The S-Factor today shows only four Big 12 teams in the tournament: Baylor, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Given the conference's history one would speculate that this estimate is probably too low, and that surely Oklahoma and Iowa State would be offered invitations to the big dance also, like Charlie Creme says. I think this is half true. I believe that Iowa State is likely going to be out of the tournament, but Oklahoma will be in. Here's why.
Oklahoma had a big gutsy win against Texas on Pack the Place Pink Night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman on Wednesday. As a Sooner fan, I'm still on an adrenaline high from the win. The Sooners had no business even being competitive, what with star guard and leading scorer Aaryn Ellenberg out with a concussion, and yet they pulled out the win in dramatic fashion, with Morgan Hook scoring the team's final three points and Texas not getting a fast break layup off in time before the final buzzer sounded.
On the same night as Oklahoma's big win, Iowa State went down to Waco and laid a turd, losing by 38 points. No one expected a Cyclones win, but the apathy with which they played was surprising.
Now Iowa State is at 6-8 in conference (tied with TCU) and Oklahoma is at 7-7. For Oklahoma, three out of the remaining four games are against the bottom four teams in the conference (the other one is at Baylor). It is very likely that Oklahoma will be 9-9 or 10-8 in conference play when the regular season concludes on March 3. With Iowa State, it's a completely different story. Three out of the remaining four games for Iowa State are against the top four teams in the conference (the other one is at Kansas, a team the Cyclones beat by only 3 points last weekend at home in Ames). It is very likely that Iowa State will be 7-11, and 8-10 is impossible unless they can beat either Texas, Oklahoma State or Baylor, teams the Cyclones are 0-3 against this year.
So let's say that Iowa State manages to achieve an 8-10 record for the 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Would that be enough to get them in the NCAA tournament?
In the 17 year history of the Big 12 Conference, there have been 21 teams that have finished with a record of one game under .500 (7-9 or 8-10). Only 8 of those teams have been offered tournament bids (38%). But, six out of the last seven teams that finished one game under .500 in the conference has made it to the tournament, the lone exception since 2006 being the 2012 snub of 8-10 Oklahoma State. That would be great for Iowa State then, right?
Well, the reason that the NCAA selection committee felt such generosity for mediocre Big 12 teams in years past is because that since 2008 the Big 12 has been the toughest conference in the country in terms of RPI. Before this season, one could make a strong argument that 8-10 in the Big 12 was equivalent to, let's say, 11-7 in the PAC-12; on any given night, a pretty good team could easily lose to an overperforming eleventh place team. (Imagine removing the bottom half of the ACC and replacing it with, like, six TCUs).
This year though, the Big 12 is fourth in RPI. Of the five teams that have gone one game under .500 in a season that the Big 12 has been ranked fourth or worse, zero of them have received tournament berths. Even getting to .500 is no automatic path to the Big Dance in years where the Big 12 is down: only one of the four teams that went .500 in conference play in a year that the Big 12 was fourth or worse in RPI has received a tournament bid (Oklahoma, 2005). And if Iowa State finishes 7-11? No team 2 games below .500 in conference has ever received an at-large tournament berth in the Big 12.
What about Oklahoma's chances this year? 9-9 in the Big 12 (or 8-8 in the old Big 12) has been good enough for a berth 59% of the time, though it's been 100% of the time since 2006 and only 30% of the time before then. And teams going one game above .500 (10-8 or 9-7) have missed out on the tournament only twice since 1997: once in 2006 when the selection committee decided to snub Marsha Sharp in her last season at Texas Tech for some reason, and once for Missouri in 2003 when the Big 12 was the fifth strongest conference. Both of those teams had 14 losses and RPI's over 60.
This is why I believe that barring a very surprising last four games, Iowa State is out and Oklahoma is in. Hopefully S-Factor will catch up to this prediction before the season is out :)
_____________________________________________
Now in:
Bowling Green (Bowling Green and Central Michigan have now split wins and lead the conference, but I'm giving the automatic to Bowling Green for now)
Southern Cal (bracket churn)
Southern Miss (the only team in Conference USA to beat Middle Tennessee this year)
North Dakota (back in solo first place in the Big Sky)
Cal State Northridge (now in solo first place in the Big West)
Now out:
Central Michigan (first conference loss of the season)
UTEP (their loss to North Texas on Wednesday was their first sub-200 RPI loss of the season)
Florida State (the Seminoles are at Iowa State-levels of freefall at this point. They are 3-8 in their last eleven games)
Montana (lost to sub-300 RPI Weber State, truly an awful loss)
Cal Poly (fallen into a 3-game slide)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(4) North Carolina
(5) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(10) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(7) St. John's
(9) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(7) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(9) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(6) Arizona State
(6) California
(11) Oregon State
(11) Southern Cal
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Kentucky
(5) Vanderbilt
(7) LSU
(8) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego*
(10) St. Mary's*
*I should just replace these two spots with "Boomer" and "Sooner".
The S-Factor today shows only four Big 12 teams in the tournament: Baylor, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Given the conference's history one would speculate that this estimate is probably too low, and that surely Oklahoma and Iowa State would be offered invitations to the big dance also, like Charlie Creme says. I think this is half true. I believe that Iowa State is likely going to be out of the tournament, but Oklahoma will be in. Here's why.
Oklahoma had a big gutsy win against Texas on Pack the Place Pink Night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman on Wednesday. As a Sooner fan, I'm still on an adrenaline high from the win. The Sooners had no business even being competitive, what with star guard and leading scorer Aaryn Ellenberg out with a concussion, and yet they pulled out the win in dramatic fashion, with Morgan Hook scoring the team's final three points and Texas not getting a fast break layup off in time before the final buzzer sounded.
On the same night as Oklahoma's big win, Iowa State went down to Waco and laid a turd, losing by 38 points. No one expected a Cyclones win, but the apathy with which they played was surprising.
Now Iowa State is at 6-8 in conference (tied with TCU) and Oklahoma is at 7-7. For Oklahoma, three out of the remaining four games are against the bottom four teams in the conference (the other one is at Baylor). It is very likely that Oklahoma will be 9-9 or 10-8 in conference play when the regular season concludes on March 3. With Iowa State, it's a completely different story. Three out of the remaining four games for Iowa State are against the top four teams in the conference (the other one is at Kansas, a team the Cyclones beat by only 3 points last weekend at home in Ames). It is very likely that Iowa State will be 7-11, and 8-10 is impossible unless they can beat either Texas, Oklahoma State or Baylor, teams the Cyclones are 0-3 against this year.
So let's say that Iowa State manages to achieve an 8-10 record for the 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Would that be enough to get them in the NCAA tournament?
In the 17 year history of the Big 12 Conference, there have been 21 teams that have finished with a record of one game under .500 (7-9 or 8-10). Only 8 of those teams have been offered tournament bids (38%). But, six out of the last seven teams that finished one game under .500 in the conference has made it to the tournament, the lone exception since 2006 being the 2012 snub of 8-10 Oklahoma State. That would be great for Iowa State then, right?
Well, the reason that the NCAA selection committee felt such generosity for mediocre Big 12 teams in years past is because that since 2008 the Big 12 has been the toughest conference in the country in terms of RPI. Before this season, one could make a strong argument that 8-10 in the Big 12 was equivalent to, let's say, 11-7 in the PAC-12; on any given night, a pretty good team could easily lose to an overperforming eleventh place team. (Imagine removing the bottom half of the ACC and replacing it with, like, six TCUs).
This year though, the Big 12 is fourth in RPI. Of the five teams that have gone one game under .500 in a season that the Big 12 has been ranked fourth or worse, zero of them have received tournament berths. Even getting to .500 is no automatic path to the Big Dance in years where the Big 12 is down: only one of the four teams that went .500 in conference play in a year that the Big 12 was fourth or worse in RPI has received a tournament bid (Oklahoma, 2005). And if Iowa State finishes 7-11? No team 2 games below .500 in conference has ever received an at-large tournament berth in the Big 12.
What about Oklahoma's chances this year? 9-9 in the Big 12 (or 8-8 in the old Big 12) has been good enough for a berth 59% of the time, though it's been 100% of the time since 2006 and only 30% of the time before then. And teams going one game above .500 (10-8 or 9-7) have missed out on the tournament only twice since 1997: once in 2006 when the selection committee decided to snub Marsha Sharp in her last season at Texas Tech for some reason, and once for Missouri in 2003 when the Big 12 was the fifth strongest conference. Both of those teams had 14 losses and RPI's over 60.
This is why I believe that barring a very surprising last four games, Iowa State is out and Oklahoma is in. Hopefully S-Factor will catch up to this prediction before the season is out :)
_____________________________________________
Now in:
Bowling Green (Bowling Green and Central Michigan have now split wins and lead the conference, but I'm giving the automatic to Bowling Green for now)
Southern Cal (bracket churn)
Southern Miss (the only team in Conference USA to beat Middle Tennessee this year)
North Dakota (back in solo first place in the Big Sky)
Cal State Northridge (now in solo first place in the Big West)
Now out:
Central Michigan (first conference loss of the season)
UTEP (their loss to North Texas on Wednesday was their first sub-200 RPI loss of the season)
Florida State (the Seminoles are at Iowa State-levels of freefall at this point. They are 3-8 in their last eleven games)
Montana (lost to sub-300 RPI Weber State, truly an awful loss)
Cal Poly (fallen into a 3-game slide)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(4) North Carolina
(5) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(10) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(7) St. John's
(9) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(7) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(9) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(6) Arizona State
(6) California
(11) Oregon State
(11) Southern Cal
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Kentucky
(5) Vanderbilt
(7) LSU
(8) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego*
(10) St. Mary's*
*I should just replace these two spots with "Boomer" and "Sooner".
Monday, February 17, 2014
February 17 Update
Now in:
Oregon State (beat USC and leaped into 4th place in the PAC 12)
Georgia (unexpectedly beat Florida yesterday, though they'll likely finish no better than 7-9 in the SEC)
UTEP (one of four strong teams in the running for second place in the surprisingly good Conference USA this year)
Montana (beat North Dakota to tie for first place in the Big Sky)
Now out:
USC (lost to Oregon State, will lose two this week probably)
Villanova (fourth place in the Big East doesn't sound as good as it used to)
Auburn (remember when I said they'd finish 9-7 in the SEC? Beating Missouri was crucial to that prediction, and it didn't happen)
North Dakota (I'm letting a more familiar team be the automatic bid holder for awhile)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(9) Florida State
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(10) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(11) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(5) St. John's
(8) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(6) Nebraska
(9) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(2) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(5) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(6) Arizona State
(7) California
(9) Oregon State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(3) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(5) LSU
(7) Vanderbilt
(9) Florida
(10) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego
(11) St. Mary's
Conference USA Teams:
(8) MTSU
(11) UTEP
Oregon State (beat USC and leaped into 4th place in the PAC 12)
Georgia (unexpectedly beat Florida yesterday, though they'll likely finish no better than 7-9 in the SEC)
UTEP (one of four strong teams in the running for second place in the surprisingly good Conference USA this year)
Montana (beat North Dakota to tie for first place in the Big Sky)
Now out:
USC (lost to Oregon State, will lose two this week probably)
Villanova (fourth place in the Big East doesn't sound as good as it used to)
Auburn (remember when I said they'd finish 9-7 in the SEC? Beating Missouri was crucial to that prediction, and it didn't happen)
North Dakota (I'm letting a more familiar team be the automatic bid holder for awhile)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(9) Florida State
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(10) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(11) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(5) St. John's
(8) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(6) Nebraska
(9) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(2) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(5) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(6) Arizona State
(7) California
(9) Oregon State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(3) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(5) LSU
(7) Vanderbilt
(9) Florida
(10) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego
(11) St. Mary's
Conference USA Teams:
(8) MTSU
(11) UTEP
Friday, February 14, 2014
February 14 Update: West Coast is the Best Coast?
The S-Factor shows four teams from the West Coast Conference getting into the tournament as of this moment: (5) Gonzaga, (9) BYU, (10) St. Mary's, and (10) San Diego. This will not come to pass. The West Coast Conference will be a one bid conference (assuming Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament).
Gonzaga is the one team from the West Coast Conference that has the chops to justify an at-large berth. Their only conference loss was a one-point game at St. Mary's way back in December (apparently the West Coast Conference plays conference games in December). Their non-conference season was full of RPI-boosting teams that aren't quite cupcakes (Ohio State, Washington State, UT-Martin, Idaho), though they haven't beaten a non-conference top-50-RPI team.
BYU right now is in a distant second place in conference, three games behind Gonzaga. Their best non-conference win was their opener against South Dakota State, but they've suffered four losses to conference opponents, only one of which was Gonzaga. Like Gonzaga, they only faced three sub-200-RPI opponents, which keeps BYU's RPI in the 50's.
St. Mary's used to be the likely choice for a second berth into the tournament from the West Coast Conference. However, that was before they lost 2 in a row and 3 out of 5 to West Coast also-rans Pacific and Loyola Marymount. Yet they are still 40th in RPI because they too avoided too many sub-200-RPI teams, battling just 3 in non-conference play.
San Diego was ahead of even Gonzaga in the S-Factor before the conference season started. Their win over Arizona State is by far the best win by any team in the conference. They were undefeated until January 8th at Portland, but since then they've gone 4-6 against conference opponents. They still have a top 50 RPI.
If these four opponents ran the table on every other team in the league and suffered losses only against each other, one could make a strong argument that they are all deserving of consideration to the tournament and that the West Coast Conference has somehow clawed its way into the Atlantic 10-Memorial Best Mid-Major Conference spot. But the three non-Gonzaga teams on this list have suffered losses against Pacific (86), Portland (136), San Francisco (152), and just last night, Loyola Marymount (211).
This could also be taken as an argument for the strength of the conference as a whole from top to bottom, similar to the reason why the Big 12 was the best RPI conference in women's hoops for so many years. Last year, the Big 12's reputation for strength led to the tournament selection committee choosing 70% of their teams.
But the Big 12 Conference and the West Coast Conference are not similar in the eyes of the selection committee. No matter what the RPI numbers say, wins against Texas Tech and Kansas State sound a lot better than wins against Pepperdine and Santa Clara.
This is not a monolith of power atop the Pacific Time Zone's best mid-major conference. This is just a conference with an abnormally high RPI mucking up my prediction formula.
___________________________
Now in:
Florida State (good win at Syracuse last night puts them back in)
St. Joseph's (speaking of abnormally high RPI)
Auburn (easy schedule coming up, could finish 9-7 in the SEC)
Rutgers (finally overcame that Memphis loss in my formula)
Now out:
UTEP (bracket churn)
Bowling Green (Ohio State dropped out of the top 50, which means BGSU no longer has any top 50 wins)
Indiana (3-7 in their last 10)
St. Bonaventure (7-game winning streak came to an end on Wednesday)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) North Carolina
(7) Syracuse
(8) Florida State
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(10) Villanova
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(6) Nebraska
(9) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(6) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) Arizona State
(7) California
(11) USC
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) LSU
(5) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(8) Florida
(10) Auburn
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(9) BYU
(10) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego
Gonzaga is the one team from the West Coast Conference that has the chops to justify an at-large berth. Their only conference loss was a one-point game at St. Mary's way back in December (apparently the West Coast Conference plays conference games in December). Their non-conference season was full of RPI-boosting teams that aren't quite cupcakes (Ohio State, Washington State, UT-Martin, Idaho), though they haven't beaten a non-conference top-50-RPI team.
BYU right now is in a distant second place in conference, three games behind Gonzaga. Their best non-conference win was their opener against South Dakota State, but they've suffered four losses to conference opponents, only one of which was Gonzaga. Like Gonzaga, they only faced three sub-200-RPI opponents, which keeps BYU's RPI in the 50's.
St. Mary's used to be the likely choice for a second berth into the tournament from the West Coast Conference. However, that was before they lost 2 in a row and 3 out of 5 to West Coast also-rans Pacific and Loyola Marymount. Yet they are still 40th in RPI because they too avoided too many sub-200-RPI teams, battling just 3 in non-conference play.
San Diego was ahead of even Gonzaga in the S-Factor before the conference season started. Their win over Arizona State is by far the best win by any team in the conference. They were undefeated until January 8th at Portland, but since then they've gone 4-6 against conference opponents. They still have a top 50 RPI.
If these four opponents ran the table on every other team in the league and suffered losses only against each other, one could make a strong argument that they are all deserving of consideration to the tournament and that the West Coast Conference has somehow clawed its way into the Atlantic 10-Memorial Best Mid-Major Conference spot. But the three non-Gonzaga teams on this list have suffered losses against Pacific (86), Portland (136), San Francisco (152), and just last night, Loyola Marymount (211).
This could also be taken as an argument for the strength of the conference as a whole from top to bottom, similar to the reason why the Big 12 was the best RPI conference in women's hoops for so many years. Last year, the Big 12's reputation for strength led to the tournament selection committee choosing 70% of their teams.
But the Big 12 Conference and the West Coast Conference are not similar in the eyes of the selection committee. No matter what the RPI numbers say, wins against Texas Tech and Kansas State sound a lot better than wins against Pepperdine and Santa Clara.
This is not a monolith of power atop the Pacific Time Zone's best mid-major conference. This is just a conference with an abnormally high RPI mucking up my prediction formula.
___________________________
Now in:
Florida State (good win at Syracuse last night puts them back in)
St. Joseph's (speaking of abnormally high RPI)
Auburn (easy schedule coming up, could finish 9-7 in the SEC)
Rutgers (finally overcame that Memphis loss in my formula)
Now out:
UTEP (bracket churn)
Bowling Green (Ohio State dropped out of the top 50, which means BGSU no longer has any top 50 wins)
Indiana (3-7 in their last 10)
St. Bonaventure (7-game winning streak came to an end on Wednesday)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) North Carolina
(7) Syracuse
(8) Florida State
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(10) Villanova
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(6) Nebraska
(9) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(6) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) Arizona State
(7) California
(11) USC
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) LSU
(5) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(8) Florida
(10) Auburn
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(9) BYU
(10) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego
Monday, February 10, 2014
February 10 Update
Now in:
BYU
Villanova
UTEP
Now out:
Georgia
Michigan
Marquette
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(2) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(7) North Carolina
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(11) St. Bonaventure
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(7) DePaul
(11) Villanova
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(7) Nebraska
(8) Michigan State
(10) Indiana
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(4) West Virginia
(5) Oklahoma State
(6) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) Arizona State
(8) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(3) Tennessee
(3) LSU
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Vanderbilt
(6) Kentucky
(7) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(9) St. Mary's
(9) San Diego
(10) BYU
MAC Teams:
(10) Bowling Green
(12) Central Michigan
Conference USA Teams:
(8) Middle Tennessee State University
(11) University of Texas-El Paso
BYU
Villanova
UTEP
Now out:
Georgia
Michigan
Marquette
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(2) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(7) North Carolina
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(11) St. Bonaventure
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(7) DePaul
(11) Villanova
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(7) Nebraska
(8) Michigan State
(10) Indiana
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(4) West Virginia
(5) Oklahoma State
(6) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) Arizona State
(8) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(3) Tennessee
(3) LSU
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Vanderbilt
(6) Kentucky
(7) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(9) St. Mary's
(9) San Diego
(10) BYU
MAC Teams:
(10) Bowling Green
(12) Central Michigan
Conference USA Teams:
(8) Middle Tennessee State University
(11) University of Texas-El Paso
Friday, February 7, 2014
February 7 Update: An Already Outdated Bracket Prediction
Earlier this week I posted my first non-automated bracket prediction of the year on the Bracket Prediction page. I did it mostly so I could get a feel for the geographic placement of teams and how the first round host sites are going to work out. Last year all but one of the host schools (Ohio State) made it to the tournament, which added some structural complexity to the guesswork of bracket making. This year, at least at the time I made my picks this week, it was looking like there will be three missing host schools (UCLA, Washington, Toledo).
However there could be more open sites. Iowa State is going through a sustained and inexplicable suck-freefall. After demolishing Texas Tech on January 8th inside Hilton Coliseum in Ames, the Cyclones were at 14-0, ranked 11th in the AP poll, and were very much being talked about as a team that could beat Baylor for the Big 12 regular season championship. Since then the team has gone 2-6 and has fallen out of the polls. On Wednesday the Cyclones lost to TCU in Ames in another lackluster performance that had fans pleading for voodoo priests to remove the curse on their team. Because of that loss, for the first time all season, the S-Factor shows Iowa State out of the tournament.
Iowa State will host some first and second round games in March. Hopefully the Cyclones will bounce back, show some backbone and be able to drain some shots in some of the many tough Big 12 games they've got left on their schedule. Because if not, the Cyclones are going to be watching from the sidelines.
Now in:
St. Bonaventure
Marquette
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Now out:
Iowa State
Oklahoma :(
Iona
Youngstown State
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(2) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(7) North Carolina
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Bonaventure
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(11) Marquette
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(5) Iowa
(6) Purdue
(7) Nebraska
(8) Michigan State
(10) Michigan
(11) Indiana
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(4) West Virginia
(4) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(3) Arizona State
(9) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) LSU
(4) Vanderbilt
(5) Kentucky
(5) Texas A&M
(9) Florida
(10) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(6) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan
However there could be more open sites. Iowa State is going through a sustained and inexplicable suck-freefall. After demolishing Texas Tech on January 8th inside Hilton Coliseum in Ames, the Cyclones were at 14-0, ranked 11th in the AP poll, and were very much being talked about as a team that could beat Baylor for the Big 12 regular season championship. Since then the team has gone 2-6 and has fallen out of the polls. On Wednesday the Cyclones lost to TCU in Ames in another lackluster performance that had fans pleading for voodoo priests to remove the curse on their team. Because of that loss, for the first time all season, the S-Factor shows Iowa State out of the tournament.
Iowa State will host some first and second round games in March. Hopefully the Cyclones will bounce back, show some backbone and be able to drain some shots in some of the many tough Big 12 games they've got left on their schedule. Because if not, the Cyclones are going to be watching from the sidelines.
Now in:
St. Bonaventure
Marquette
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Now out:
Iowa State
Oklahoma :(
Iona
Youngstown State
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(2) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(7) North Carolina
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Bonaventure
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(11) Marquette
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(5) Iowa
(6) Purdue
(7) Nebraska
(8) Michigan State
(10) Michigan
(11) Indiana
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(4) West Virginia
(4) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(3) Arizona State
(9) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) LSU
(4) Vanderbilt
(5) Kentucky
(5) Texas A&M
(9) Florida
(10) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(6) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan
Monday, February 3, 2014
February 3 Update
Now in:
Indiana
Oklahoma
Winthrop
Now out:
Florida State
Ohio State
Liberty
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(6) North Carolina
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(9) Dayton
Big East Teams:
(5) St. John's
(8) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(6) Purdue
(6) Iowa
(7) Michigan State
(8) Nebraska
(10) Indiana
(11) Michigan
Big 12 Teams:
(3) West Virginia
(5) Baylor
(5) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
(10) Iowa State
(11) Oklahoma
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(3) Arizona State
(9) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Vanderbilt
(4) LSU
(4) Kentucky
(4) Texas A&M
(9) Florida
(11) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) St. Mary's
(8) San Diego
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(12) Central Michigan
MAAC Teams:
(10) Iona
(11) Marist
Indiana
Oklahoma
Winthrop
Now out:
Florida State
Ohio State
Liberty
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(6) North Carolina
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(9) Dayton
Big East Teams:
(5) St. John's
(8) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(6) Purdue
(6) Iowa
(7) Michigan State
(8) Nebraska
(10) Indiana
(11) Michigan
Big 12 Teams:
(3) West Virginia
(5) Baylor
(5) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
(10) Iowa State
(11) Oklahoma
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(3) Arizona State
(9) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Vanderbilt
(4) LSU
(4) Kentucky
(4) Texas A&M
(9) Florida
(11) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) St. Mary's
(8) San Diego
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(12) Central Michigan
MAAC Teams:
(10) Iona
(11) Marist
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