February 14 Update: West Coast is the Best Coast?

The S-Factor shows four teams from the West Coast Conference getting into the tournament as of this moment: (5) Gonzaga, (9) BYU, (10) St. Mary's, and (10) San Diego.  This will not come to pass.  The West Coast Conference will be a one bid conference (assuming Gonzaga wins the WCC tournament).

Gonzaga is the one team from the West Coast Conference that has the chops to justify an at-large berth.  Their only conference loss was a one-point game at St. Mary's way back in December (apparently the West Coast Conference plays conference games in December).  Their non-conference season was full of RPI-boosting teams that aren't quite cupcakes (Ohio State, Washington State, UT-Martin, Idaho), though they haven't beaten a non-conference top-50-RPI team.

BYU right now is in a distant second place in conference, three games behind Gonzaga.  Their best non-conference win was their opener against South Dakota State, but they've suffered four losses to conference opponents, only one of which was Gonzaga.  Like Gonzaga, they only faced three sub-200-RPI opponents, which keeps BYU's RPI in the 50's.

St. Mary's used to be the likely choice for a second berth into the tournament from the West Coast Conference.  However, that was before they lost 2 in a row and 3 out of 5 to West Coast also-rans Pacific and Loyola Marymount.  Yet they are still 40th in RPI because they too avoided too many sub-200-RPI teams, battling just 3 in non-conference play.

San Diego was ahead of even Gonzaga in the S-Factor before the conference season started.  Their win over Arizona State is by far the best win by any team in the conference.  They were undefeated until January 8th at Portland, but since then they've gone 4-6 against conference opponents. They still have a top 50 RPI.

If these four opponents ran the table on every other team in the league and suffered losses only against each other, one could make a strong argument that they are all deserving of consideration to the tournament and that the West Coast Conference has somehow clawed its way into the Atlantic 10-Memorial Best Mid-Major Conference spot.  But the three non-Gonzaga teams on this list have suffered losses against Pacific (86), Portland (136), San Francisco (152), and just last night, Loyola Marymount (211).

This could also be taken as an argument for the strength of the conference as a whole from top to bottom, similar to the reason why the Big 12 was the best RPI conference in women's hoops for so many years. Last year, the Big 12's reputation for strength led to the tournament selection committee choosing 70% of their teams.

But the Big 12 Conference and the West Coast Conference are not similar in the eyes of the selection committee.  No matter what the RPI numbers say, wins against Texas Tech and Kansas State sound a lot better than wins against Pepperdine and Santa Clara.

This is not a monolith of power atop the Pacific Time Zone's best mid-major conference.  This is just a conference with an abnormally high RPI mucking up my prediction formula.

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Now in:
Florida State (good win at Syracuse last night puts them back in)

St. Joseph's (speaking of abnormally high RPI)

Auburn (easy schedule coming up, could finish 9-7 in the SEC)

Rutgers (finally overcame that Memphis loss in my formula)

Now out:
UTEP (bracket churn)

Bowling Green (Ohio State dropped out of the top 50, which means BGSU no longer has any top 50 wins)

Indiana (3-7 in their last 10)

St. Bonaventure (7-game winning streak came to an end on Wednesday)

ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) North Carolina
(7) Syracuse
(8) Florida State
(11) Georgia Tech

AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers

Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's

Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(10) Villanova

Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(6) Nebraska
(9) Michigan State

Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(6) Texas

PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) Arizona State
(7) California
(11) USC

SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) LSU
(5) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(8) Florida
(10) Auburn

West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(9) BYU
(10) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego

December 30 Update: West Coast Represent

Biggest mover over the last week was St. Mary's; with their one point conference season opening victory over West Coast juggernauts Gonzaga, the Gaels jump back into the S-Factor-predicted tournament.

The S-Factor is predicting a 5-seed for St. Mary's, which is absurdly high, though not as absurd as Sacramento State's 4-seed.  The Hornets of Sacramento State are bolstered in the formula by their top 50 and top 25 wins: over Oregon (RPI 33) and over ... St. Mary's (RPI 15) on December 5th in Sacramento.  This, so far, is St. Mary's only loss of the season.

Now in:
St. Mary's
James Madison
Vanderbilt
Auburn
Temple
Nebraska
Marquette
Hampton

Now out:
Texas
UCLA
Penn State
Oregon State
West Virginia
Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders
Northwestern
North Carolina A&T

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 6
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 3
Big East: 2
Colonial: 2

December 9 Update: The Rise of Gonzaga

Now in:
Gonzaga
Oregon
Middle Tennessee State
North Carolina State
Temple
Auburn
Colorado State

Now out:
BYU
Texas
Vanderbilt
St. Mary's
Marquette
Seton Hall
Utah State

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 4
Big East: 3
American: 3
Conference USA: 2
West Coast: 2

Who Got Screwed?

As part of my annual bracketology-ology summary of which women's tournament predictions were the best (coming soon), I analyzed seven bracket predictions and 21 team ranking systems.  They are as follows:

Brackets:
1. Charlie Creme's bracketology
2. My bracket
3. RealtimeRPI's predicted bracket
4. Omni Rankings - "Macro" bracket
5. Omni Rankings - "Micro" bracket
6. "The Field of 64" - pilight's bracket on Rebkell.
7. Matt5762's bracket on Rebkell.

Ranking systems:
8. S-Factor
9. WBBState's "The State"
10. RealtimeRPI power rankings
11. Sagarin ratings
12. Sagarin ELO CHESS only
13. Sagarin PURE POINTS only
14. Massey ratings
15. Massey's power ratings
16. Omni "Macro"
17. Omni "Micro"
18. Warren Nolan's "NPI"
19. SporTheory's rankings
20. Sonny Moore's Computer Power Ratings
21. CJBratings.com composite ratings
22. CJBratings.com "Win ratings"
23. Stats.com "UPS Team Performance Index"
24. RPI calculated by NCAA
25. RPI calculated by RealtimeRPI
26. Win-loss percentage (from NCAA.org)
27. AP poll
28. Coaches poll

For the ranking systems, I created a list of 64 teams that would have been predicted as being in the tournament by that system; that is, the top 33 at-large teams along with the 31 automatic bids.

I averaged the seed that would have been predicted by each bracket or ranking system.  Then I took the difference between the average predicted seed and the actual seed handed out by the selection committee.  The following is the list of all the tournament teams ranked in order from most screwed by the committee to least screwed.



By this method, Green Bay is the most screwed team in America. No ranking system or bracket had them below a 9 seed, yet they received an 11 seed.  Gonzaga too was drastically underseeded.

Others toward the top of this list (Albany, Quinnipiac) have a high average due to some out-there ranking systems, namely WBBState's "The State", Warren Nolan's NPI, Stats LLC's TPI, and the straight up W-L percentage.  So I made another list taking these four ranking systems out. 




In both lists Kansas is at the bottom of the list with a DIV/0 error. This is because not one prognostication selected Kansas into the field of 64. Kansas was ESPN's Charlie Creme's only selection error, the seventh team out in his rankings behind San Diego State, Charlotte, Toledo, Ohio State, Pacific, Florida Gulf Coast, and the team he had in in Kansas's stead, Duquesne.

The following is a list of at-large teams sorted by how many predictions would have selected them.



If the selection committee was run by the consensus of the internet, San Diego State, Michigan, West Virginia and Duquesne would have been the last teams in, and DePaul (surprisingly), Creighton, Ohio State and Charlotte the first four out. Kansas is at the bottom of the list, picked by no one to be a part of the tournament.

Comparisons to Charlie Creme's Bracketology

The penultimate run of the S-Factor changed little from Monday's run since most conference tournament games happened over the weekend.  It should be even less volatile for the last run, excepting Delaware, St. Joseph's, Green Bay, Creighton, and other teams from conferences whose tournaments have not yet been completed.

This is as good a time as any to point out the major differences between the S-Factor and Charlie Creme's bracketology, which has become the industry standard. 

S-Factor: Duquesne in, West Virginia second out
Creme: West Virginia in, Duquesne first out

The S-Factor favors Duquesne due to a better RPI ranking (41 to 52), fewer losses (7 to 13), and conference tournament wins (1 to 0). This outweighs West Virginia's better conference RPI and record against top 50 teams in my model. When weighted against conference RPI, 9-9 in the Big 12  is about equivalent to 11-3 in the Atlantic 10.


Purdue
S-Factor: 4-seed
Creme: 7-seed

5% of the S-Factor score comes from conference tournament performance. Winning the Big Ten tournament bumped Purdue from a 7-seed to a 4-seed in the S-Factor. Tournament games also bumped SEC-winning Texas A&M from a 5-seed to a 3-seed in the S-Factor, which is where Creme has them.

Michigan State
S-Factor: 5-seed
Creme: 8-seed

The S-Factor has been a little more bullish on Michigan State since February when they beat Purdue, a team high in RPI and low in respect.

Gonzaga
S-Factor: 7-seed
Creme: 11-seed

The West Coast Conference is in 7th place out of 31 conferences in terms of RPI, ahead of even the Atlantic 10. It has four teams in the top 75 in RPI and no teams with a strength of schedule in the bottom half of the country, which makes Gonzaga's current 15 game winning streak more impressive than similarly positioned teams like Delaware and Green Bay. That would be my pitch to the selection committee to give Gonzaga the 7-seed rather than a 10- or 11-seed (as a host school it is unlikely to get an 8- or 9-seed because that would involve a 1-seed playing an away game in the second round.).  

Green Bay
S-Factor: 10-seed
Creme: 7-seed

It's hard to feel confident in an evaluation of a team when that team plays few marquee games. An impressive 26-2 record is hedged by the fact that all we really know is that Green Bay is the best team in Wisconsin. 

Texas Tech
S-Factor: 10-seed
Creme: 6-seed

As much as conference RPI plays a role in the S-Factor (and therefore teams in the Big 12, the nations top RPI conference, get a slightly larger boost than other major conferences), a team's RPI  counts for more, as do top 25 and top 50 wins. The entire non-Baylor Big 12 has no non-Iowa State top 25 wins (Iowa State is 22nd in RPI but has been in and out of the top 25 all season).

Texas Tech doesn't even have an Iowa State win. The Red Raiders have a 48th ranked RPI, which is solidly in the  bubble team zone historically.  I'm not saying there's a chance Tech will miss the tournament (a Big 12 team missing the tournament after winning more than 60% of their games would be an outrage). I'm just saying that everything besides conference winning record (three straight losses to unranked opponents, no conference tournament wins, ten losses on the season, soft non-conference schedule coupled with an unimpressive performance, best win all season was against the Big 12's 5th place team) points to a 10-seed or worse (like Gonzaga, Tech is a host school unlikely to be an 8- or 9-seed even if their resume was up to that level)

Princeton
S-Factor: 12-seed
Creme: 9-seed

I'd like to say Princeton's downfall in the S-Factor was their loss to Harvard, the lone blemish against a dominating Ivy League performance, but it would be untrue: the S-Factor has never had Princeton higher than a 12 seed. Princeton's impressive 26th ranked RPI is offset by the Ivy League's unimpressive 18th (of 31) conference RPI. 

Bubble Poppers: At-Large Bids from Small Conferences

The conference regular season has now wrapped up in 15 out of the 31 automatic-bid-producing conferences, and conference tournaments begin this week in some of those 15.  With conference tournaments comes the chance that a top-seeded team will lose and forfeit the automatic bid that bracketologists have bestowed on it for so long.  For teams on the bubble, this may be bad news if the losing team is good enough to qualify for an at-large bid. One less slot for the South Floridas of the nation.

Here are 10 teams that could pop some other team's bubble if they lose in their conference tournament:

1. Delaware (26-3, 17-0 Colonial)
16th ranked in the latest AP poll and with a winning streak dating back to 2012, the Blue Hens are not missing the tournament this year.  But if the unthinkable happens and they lose in the Colonial tournament, the CAA will get two teams in the field when they would have only gotten one in otherwise.

2. Green Bay (24-2, 14-0)
20th ranked Green Bay has only two losses this season, none since December 5. Though their strength of schedule is abysmal, their consistency will likely be rewarded by the selection committee, even if they lose.

3. Gonzaga (25-5, 15-1 WCC)
Gonzaga started the conference season as one of three or four contenders for the West Coast Conference regular season crown. Since their loss to St. Mary's on January 10, the Bulldogs have gone undefeated while their conference contenders (BYU, St. Mary's, San Diego) sort of fell off, making the West Coast Conference a one-bid conference, unless Gonzaga loses.

4. Creighton (21-6, 13-3 Missouri Valley)
Creighton is the only team on this list that the S-Factor does not currently show as an automatic bid, but as an at-large bid.  Their RPI (26th ranked) is impressive, but their selection as an at-large bid is by no means certain given how rough the Valley's regular season was to them.  Still, wins against Nebraska and South Florida continue to look good for the Blue Jays, and I think they will have a good chance at getting an at-large bid. 

5. Toledo (26-2, 14-1 MAC)
With all the wild results from this weekend and Thursday, Toledo slipped into the AP rankings this week to #25.  Toledo is like a light-version of Green Bay: almost as dominant in conference (just one loss) almost as lengthy of a winning streak (last loss on January 10), and a strength of schedule that is slightly worse (the 222nd most difficult in the nation).  Should they lose, the Rockets still stand a good chance at getting an at-large bid. Maybe.

6. San Diego State (22-5, 13-1 MWC)
The Mountain West Conference lost a lot of its luster when TCU and Utah left, which is why the MWC is only getting one team in the field of 64 if San Diego State wins the tournament.  The MWC tournament though is notorious for upending the top seed, which has lost in six of the last seven conference tournaments.   San Diego State's last loss was on January 9, and their RPI of 36 may be enough to get them into the NCAA tournament without having to win the MWC tournament. Maybe.

7. Chattanooga (26-3, 19-1 SoCon)
Chattanooga had that monster win against Tennessee to open the season but lost 3 games against beatable opponents. Their 46-ranked RPI will probably keep them from the big dance if they lose the Southern Conference tournament. Maybe.

8. Florida Gulf Coast (25-5, 18-0 Atlantic Sun)
Florida Gulf Coast, still in only their second NCAA tournament-eligible season, dominated the Atlantic Sun Conference, and they went 2-3 against the big six conferences, including a win against LSU that is looking better and better as the season progresses. Still, the Atlantic Sun is a terrible conference (28th of 31 in conference RPI terms) and two bids from it seems unlikely.

9. Quinnipiac (26-2, 17-0 NEC)
The unexpected dominance of the Northeast Conference by Quinnipiac  this year might be enough to earn the Bobcats a bid to the NCAA tournament if they lose in the conference tournament. But like Toledo, their SOS is abysmal, and they'd basically be relying on a 3-point win against St. John's to get them in should they lose the NEC tournament.

10. Marist (23-6, 18-0 MAAC)
Though it hasn't happened in eight years, we must at least assume that Marist failing to get the automatic bid in the MAAC (Marist, Automatic, Always! Conference) is a possibility.  If that happens, could they get into the NCAA tournament anyways? I say it's unlikely given their six losses, their 49th ranked RPI, and their best win being over Princeton.

New Human-Made Bracket Guess

I've used my puny human brain to craft a new bracket prediction:

This differs from the S-Factor in the following notable ways:

1. The S-Factor favors Creighton and Duquesne to get in, I favor Iowa and Miami to get in. Iowa gets in because they have many more impressive wins than the other three bubble teams I mentioned, despite their February slump. Miami gets in because their best long-ago win (Penn State) is more impressive than Creighton's best long-ago win (Nebraska) and Duquesne's best long-ago win (Delaware). 

2. The S-Factor still has Duke as the #3 overall, a shade ahead of Connecticut. Connecticut will definitely pass them by the time the season is done (they have more basketball left to play than does Duke), and I believe Stanford is a slightly more deserving team of the final #1 due to their win over Baylor.

3. The S-Factor has Gonzaga as a 9 seed. I bumped them up to a 7 seed so that Notre Dame didn't have to play on someone else's home court. I chose to bump high to a 7 rather than low to a 10 because I think it's more fair to make 10 seeds play away games than it would be to make 7 seeds play away games.  Note: this applies to LSU as well, though S-Factor has them in at a 7 seed  anyways.

4.  I think the committee will be a lot kinder to Green Bay (assuming they win out and finish the season with 2 losses) than the S-Factor is. I stuck them in as a 10 in this bracket, but I think if they win out, an 8 seed is their absolute floor and even a 6 seed wouldn't be surprising.

Will Middle Tennessee Get Left Out?

With the exception of the Ivy League, regular seasons are now all over, and many conference tournaments have already concluded. We've already had some conference tournament upsets and at least one spectacular half-court game-winning buzzer-beater (Stetson). But we've also had teams crushing all conference opposition (Marist, Gonzaga).

But Middle Tennessee State isn't among the winners this week. The team is still mourning the loss of Tina Stewart, their junior guard who got stabbed to death by her roommate. The Blue Raiders lost in the first round of the Sun Belt tournament to Arkansas State 72-66. In ordinary situations, Middle Tennessee State would be at risk of being left out of the NCAA tournament with a resumé like theirs (RPI 46, 14-2 in the Sun Belt conference, best wins are James Madison and Kansas State). But I think they have a good chance of landing an at-large bid this year, in part because the selection committee is made up of humans with hearts rather than computers with cold hard data.

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Now in: Boston University, TCU, Southern Cal, Samford, UT-Martin, Oakland, Stetson
Now out: UMBC, Duquesne, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, Tennessee Tech, Oral Roberts, East Tennessee State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Host Teams and the Brackets

There's a new bracket prediction up.

The first and second rounds of the women's NCAA tournament will be played at 16 predetermined sites hosted by 16 different schools. Unlike in the men's tournament, the women's tournament rules state that if a host school gets into the tournament, that school is required to play at its own site.

This year six out of the AP poll's top seven teams are slated to host: Baylor, Connecticut, Stanford, Tennessee, Xavier and Duke. Most brackets (including mine) seed these teams #1 and #2.

Since no other host team can be grouped with these teams, it means there will not be a host team seeded 8 or 9, and there may be fewer host teams seeded 7 or 10 than the S-curve would predict.

Could this have bracketing implications? Most definitely. The other host teams likely to make the field this year are Louisiana Tech, Penn State, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Maryland. Maryland looks like a lock for a 3, 4, 5, or 6 seed and would therefore be unaffected, but one of the other four may artificially move up or down depending on bracketing needs.

And I'm sure none of the other potential 2-seeds who are not hosting do not relish the thought of having to play a second round game on the road. I think it's fairly likely that one of the potential 2-seeds (Texas A&M definitely, maybe UCLA, Michigan State or Notre Dame) will end up playing in Columbus, OH; University Park, PA; or possibly even in Bossier City, LA or Spokane, WA.

Whatever the result, Texas A&M will surely be the best team in the tournament to be shipped 1000 miles away for their first two games. Bossier City (the closest first round site not located in Waco) would actually be the most attractive scenario for the Aggies.


Now in: Montana State, Charlotte, Temple, Southern California, Princeton, St. Francis (PA)
Now out: Northern Colorado, Harvard, Robert Morris, Arkansas, Arizona State, Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
PAC-10: 3

It's Foe Week

One of the biggest unknowns in bracket prediction is trying to guess which small conference bubble teams are going to be in the tournament if those teams lose their conference tournaments. Teams like Gonzaga, Middle Tennessee, Bowling Green and Green Bay are all good teams. Their non-conference schedules have shown they can compete with the big conference teams, and in some cases win. But they have to be almost perfect against the conference spread if they want any sort of insurance policy against an unusual loss in their conference tournament.

These teams all have foes, teams from within their conference that are good enough to steal a win away. For Gonzaga the foe is usually St. Mary's, and this year is no exception. Middle Tennessee State's intra-conference foe is the very good team from Little Rock, which made the tournament last year as an at-large team to the surprise of many. Green Bay's foe is Butler this year; like Green Bay, Butler is undefeated in the Horizon. And the MAC has evolved to create two foes for Bowling Green this year: Kent State and Toledo both share Bowling Green's 5-1 conference record.

Foe games are important because they are the only challenges these elite small-conference teams have between December and March, a sparse data point or two for bracketologists.

This week is setting up to be quite a week for foe games. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's for the first time tomorrow, Bowling Green plays Toledo tonight for the only scheduled time this season, and Green Bay travels to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tomorrow to challenge Butler for sole Horizon League supremecy.

Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2