February 20 Update: Seven Number Ones

Today Baylor becomes the seventh team to be rated number one by the S-Factor this season. Here is the list of women's college basketball teams that the S-Factor has rated in first place this season:

1. Notre Dame (4 weeks)
2. Maryland (2.5 weeks)
3. Kentucky (2.5 weeks)
4. Louisville (1 week)
5. Tennessee (0.5 weeks)
6. Baylor (0.5 weeks)
7. Minnesota (!)(0.5 weeks)

There have only been two teams to top the AP poll this season, and neither of them are represented on this list. South Carolina has come close in the S-Factor, having been ranked 2nd for one week and 3rd for 5.5 weeks. But the S-Factor has not been so kind to the American Athletic Conference's Connecticut, which has only ascended as high as 5th place for a half-week and has spent most of its time in 9th or 10th place (2 weeks apiece).

In 2014 there were five teams that traded the first place ranking all season (Notre Dame, Connecticut, Stanford, Tennessee, and Louisville snuck in there once). In 2013 there were only three (Connecticut, Stanford, and then Brittney Griner's Baylor from Christmas to Selection Monday).
 
Now in:
Kansas State
Colorado State
Stephen F. Austin

Now out:
Tulane
Fresno State
Lamar

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC 12: 5
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2

January 23 Update: A New Leader

The new number one overall is Notre Dame. Jewell Loyd was unstoppable against the Lady Vols, and the Irish's Big Monday win over Tennessee was impressive enough to vault them to the top over Maryland.

Now in:
West Virginia
Ohio
Northwestern State

Now out:

North Carolina State

Akron

Lamar

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
SEC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Pac 12: 6
Big 12: 5
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

December 13 Update: Finals Week

As of this update, the Big East only shows up with one bid, Villanova. This is the first time in approximately forever that one could say this about the Big East.  It is only a temporary situation: both St. John's and DePaul were dropped out of the S-Factor for losing this week to SEC teams (Kentucky and Auburn), but they'll probably be back soon. 

If anything, this only highlights how stacked the SEC is this year.  Five SEC teams are still undefeated (Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina) and three more have only one loss (LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri). The conference as a whole stands at 108-22 right now, which is the second least amount of losses for a conference this year.  The Big 12 has one less loss but four fewer teams (and 48 fewer wins).   



Now in:
Texas
Ole Miss
BYU

Now out:
St. John's
Middle Tennessee State
DePaul

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Pac 12: 5
American: 3
West Coast: 3

 

Six-Point Bounces: Earned and Unearned

There were two great games involving great teams last night: Tennessee escaped with a win over Kentucky, but RPI no. 1 Duke fell to North Carolina. In the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, Tennessee moved up to the number two position while Duke fell to the number four position. North Carolina, as would be expected, gained six positions to number 12 and a predicted 3 seed.

But the strangest S-Factor movement occured on the bubble. Despite not playing a game last night, Northwestern moved up six positions and is now shown in the field as an 11 seed. Their RPI did not budge.

The reason for the jump? Minnesota moved from RPI #101 to RPI #100, and LSU moved from RPI #51 to RPI #50. Northwestern has a loss to Minnesota that is no longer a sub-100 loss, and the Wildcats also have a win against LSU that is now a top 50 win.

North Carolina and Northwestern jumped by the same amount in one day. One could say that a numeric wiggle is just as important as a hard-fought win over a top-rated opponent. But it's not true: the latter is much more important than the former. Numbers are just funny that way.


Now in: Northwestern
Now out: Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

If Womens Basketball Was Like Boxing

Bet you didn't know there was a title fight last night. 17th-ranked Miami had won 17 in a row coming in to last night's game against 22nd-ranked Florida State, but the Hurricanes lost in Tallahassee 66-59. If collegiate women's basketball worked like boxing, Florida State would now posess a number one seed.

To make this boxing analogy work, let's say that a title belt is equivalent to a #1 seed in the tournament. And let's assume that the top four teams in the preseason AP poll got to have the #1 seeds. These belonged to UConn, Baylor, Stanford and Tennessee on November 1st. Furthermore, let's say that every single game played is like when someone challenges a champion for his title. When Connecticut beat Baylor on November 16th, Connecticut assumed control of the 2nd #1 seed (let's call this the WBO belt). But when Connecticut lost to Stanford on December 30th, they gave up both their own belt (WBA, let's say) and the WBO belt.

If you follow this analogy, the #1 seeds today would be: Stanford, Stanford, Stanford and Florida State. See the chart below.

Because Smokin' Joe Tennessee's first loss was to Georgetown Foreman, and Georgetown's first loss after that was to Miami Ali, and Miami's first loss after that was to Florida State last night, Florida State now has the last #1 seed.

Obviously this has no bearing in reality. Washington State, worst BCS-conference team in the nation, briefly held the #1 seed when they beat Cal (who beat Arizona State, who beat DePaul, who beat Stanford). I guess they would be the Leon Spinks of womens basketball.



Now in: Southern University
Now out: Alabama A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The State of Connecticut Beats Florida State

I'd be willing to bet that Florida State was expecting to lose one game out of the two games in a row that they play in the State of Connecticut. I'd also be willing to bet that the Seminoles were expecting the loss to come in the second of those two games and not the first, but instead it was Yale that snapped its 7-game losing streak to best Florida State by 6 points. As a result, Florida State plummets 23 positions in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor and is now in 40th place, the final at-large team in the tournament. (Yale, meanwhile, jumps 74 positions to 198th place.)

The S-Factor now puts Tennessee in as a #1 seed due to their win over Stanford, whose coach Tara VanDerveer is still awaiting her 800th career NCAA win.

Purdue, USC, and Vanderbilt now replace Louisville, Nebraska, and Michigan (all teams that lost over the weekend) in the predicted tournament bracket.

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big 12: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4

DePaul beats Stanford

Tara VanDerveer has to wait for her 800th win, as DePaul shut down previously-undefeated Stanford last night. As a result of this quality victory, DePaul shoots up to fourth place in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor and a #1 seed, much the same way Baylor's win over Tennessee a couple of days ago shot Baylor to a #1 seed temporarily. As of now, the S-Factor gives three of the four #1 seeds to Big East teams, a scenario that almost certainly won't happen. But the Big East is the only major conference to have played some conference games, which gives every team in the conference an advantage in the S-Factor. Can't wait 'til January when the rest of the conferences start their regular season!

Conferences with multiple teams:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC 10: 4
SEC: 3