February 13 Update: Connecticut Victim of the Vagaries of RPI

The Temple Owls and the South Florida Bulls both edged up into the top 25 of RPI a little unexpectedly this weekend. This change meant that instead of Connecticut having just one more scheduled top 25 game in their season (tonight's showdown against South Carolina), the Huskies now have three, and this was enough to drop Connecticut (through no fault of their own) down to the fifth ranked team in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. I believe this will only be a temporary drop.

Last 4 in:
Harvard
Northern Iowa
Indiana
Northwestern

First 4 out:
Elon
Penn State
Michigan State
Georgetown

Now in:
Harvard
James Madison
Indiana

Now out:
Elon
Michigan State
California

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
(1) Mississippi State
(1) South Carolina
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Tennessee
(5) Kentucky
(6) Missouri
(7) LSU
(8) Auburn

ACC: 7
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Florida State
(3) Duke
(4) North Carolina State
(4) Louisville
(6) Syracuse
(6) Miami (FL)

Pac 12: 6
(1) Oregon State
(2) Stanford
(3) Washington
(4) UCLA
(7) Arizona State
(8) Oregon

Big Ten: 5
(4) Maryland
(7) Ohio State
(9) Michigan
(10) Indiana
(11) Northwestern

Big 12: 5
(2) Baylor
(3) Texas
(5) Oklahoma 
(6) Kansas State
(9) West Virginia

American: 3
(2) Connecticut
(7) Temple
(8) South Florida

Big East: 3
(5) DePaul
(8) Marquette
(9) Creighton

Missouri Valley: 2
(10) Northern Iowa
(11) Drake

Ivy: 2
(10) Harvard
(12) Pennsylvania

February 29 Update: Why Doesn't Connecticut Ever Leap (Day) to the Front In These Rankings?

For the entire month of February, Connecticut's ranking in the S-Factor has been between 5 and 7, good enough for a seed of 2. But everyone who follows women's basketball knows that Geno Auriemma's UConn Huskies are the best team in the nation unquestionably. The always-dominant Huskies are perhaps as good as they've ever been, helmed by possibly the best player in UConn history (citation: MC Barrett's espnW article entitled "Is Breanna Stewart the Best UConn Player in History?"). 

If the S-Factor has the dominant Huskies down as a 2-seed, how can any of these other rankings be trusted?

The answer lies in the way that the S-Factor treats conference rankings. Strength of conference is a big part of the S-Factor, and it became even bigger in 2014 when I reexamined my rankings to account for the NCAA Selection Committee's persistent tendency to favor teams from strong conferences and to punish teams from weaker conferences. 

Connecticut is far and away the best team in the American Athletic Conference. Despite containing the best team in all of women's college basketball, the American Athletic Conference is ranked 9th in RPI, behind the Big East, Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference.   The top six teams in the AAC are ranked 3, 30, 58, 82, 102 and 161 in the RPI. For comparison, in the Atlantic 10, a very competitive league this year, the top six teams have RPI rankings of 23, 29, 39, 54, 72, and 84.  

The mathematical forces that keep Connecticut from being ranked #1 in the S-Factor are the same mathematical forces that keep Santa Clara, San Diego and Western Kentucky out of the (predicted) tournament. I'd rather the S-Factor make an error in seeding, prominent though it may be, than an error in tournament inclusion. I feel that this is about as good as one can do without using a score-based method like the Sagarin Ratings, which have their own strengths and weaknesses. 

Now in:
St. Bonaventure
Saint Louis
Quinnipiac

Now out:
Purdue
Oregon
Iona

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
(1) South Carolina
(3) Florida
(3) Kentucky
(4) Mississippi State
(4) Georgia
(5) Texas A&M
(7) Missouri
(8) Tennessee
(10) Auburn

Pac 12: 5
(2) Arizona State
(2) Oregon State
(2) UCLA
(3) Stanford
(6) Washington

Big 12: 6
(1) Baylor
(1) Texas
(5) West Virginia
(5) Oklahoma State
(6) Oklahoma
(9) Kansas State

Big Ten: 5
(4) Maryland
(4) Ohio State
(6) Michigan State
(8) Indiana
(11) Minnesota

ACC: 5
(1) Notre Dame
(3) Louisville
(5) Syracuse
(6) Florida State
(9) Miami (FL)

Big East: 3
(7) DePaul
(7) Seton Hall
(11) Villanova

Atlantic 10: 4
(8) Duquesne
(8) St. Bonaventure
(9) George Washington
(10) Saint Louis

Ivy League: 2
(9) Princeton
(10) Pennsylvania

American: 2
(2) Connecticut
(10) South Florida

January 18 Update: The Six Chart Toppers This Year

The Baylor Lady Bears have become the sixth team to top the College Women's Hoops S-Factor at some point this year. The five others are Connecticut, Stanford, South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall.

Now in:
Kansas State
Villanova
Hofstra
Bryant

Now out:
North Carolina State
Northwestern
Elon
Robert Morris

Still out:
South Florida
Duke

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
(1) South Carolina
(3) Kentucky
(4) Mississippi State
(5) Florida
(6) Missouri
(7) Tennessee
(8) Georgia
(9) Texas A&M

Pac 12: 7
(2) Stanford
(2) Arizona State
(2) Oregon State
(3) UCLA
(3) Washington
(4) USC
(5) Utah

Big Ten: 6
(3) Ohio State
(4) Maryland
(5) Purdue
(6) Michigan State
(7) Iowa
(8) Rutgers

Big 12: 6
(1) Baylor
(1) Texas
(4) Oklahoma
(5) Oklahoma State
(9) West Virginia
(9) Kansas State

ACC: 5
(2) Notre Dame
(6) Louisville
(7) Florida State
(8) Syracuse
(8) Miami (FL)

Big East: 4
(6) St. John's
(9) Seton Hall
(10) DePaul
(11) Villanova

Atlantic 10: 2
(7) George Washington
(10) Duquesne

West Coast: 2
(10) BYU
(10) San Diego

American: 1
(1) Connecticut

December 14 Update: Triumph of UConn

Connecticut takes its rightful place atop the College Women's Hoops S-Factor this week, due mostly to the Huskies' dominance in RPI.

Now in:
Michigan State
DePaul
West Virginia
Penn
Elon


Now out:
Syracuse
Auburn
Princeton
Michigan
James Madison

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 6
Big 12: 5
Big East: 3
West Coast: 2
Horizon: 2

Pick Distribution Charts for 2015 Predictions

I found 33 women's basketball rankings this year and made some charts about the distribution of picks for each team culled from the ranking methods identified in this post.   

Connecticut wasn't predicted as a #1 seed by every list and bracket. Those that did not pick Connecticut first were, like the S-Factor, reliant on RPI data to the exclusion of scoring data.

All 33 rankings had Notre Dame as a #1 seed.

Kentucky was the luckiest team in terms of seeding variation from the average. Only 4 predictions placed Kentucky as high as a 2 seed.

Chattanooga had the widest spread and the most variety of predictions, with ten different predicted seeds from a 3 seed to a 13 seed.

Only one ranking method predicted that Princeton would be as low as an 8-seed, and that was the S-Factor.  No one else was within 1 seed.

LSU had the least consensus. No single seed was picked by more than 4 ranking lists.

Tulane was picked by the fewest number of ranking lists and brackets. Just 12 predicted the Green Wave's inclusion in the field. Sadly the S-Factor was not one of them.

Alabama State was Bizarro Notre Dame.  Every prediction showed them as a 16 seed, yet the NCAA Selection Committee placed the SWAC champs as a 15 seed, likely so the Lady Hornets wouldn't have to travel so far. They play 2-seed Florida State in Tallahassee.