Monday, January 19, 2015

January 19 Update: Bracketology Comparison

Charlie Creme came out with his latest version of Bracketology today.  The table below shows the comparison between his women's basketball tournament predictions and the two S-Factor algorithms.

Seed
Charlie Creme (before proced-ural bumps)
New S-Factor
Old S-Factor
Connecticut
(1)
(2)
(2)
South Carolina
(1)
(1)
(1)
Tennessee
(1)
(2)
(2)
Notre Dame
(1)
(1)
(1)
Maryland
(2)
(1)
(1)
Louisville
(2)
(1)
(1)
Oregon State
(2)
(3)
(3)
Baylor
(2)
(3)
(2)
Arizona State
(3)
(2)
(2)
North Carolina
(3)
(6)
(6)
Texas
(3)
(2)
(3)
Texas A&M
(3)
(4)
(4)
Minnesota
(4)
(5)
(4)
Duke
(4)
(5)
(6)
Kentucky
(4)
(3)
(3)
Florida State
(4)
(3)
(3)
George Washington
(5)
(7)
(4)
Stanford
(5)
(5)
(5)
Iowa
(5)
(4)
(4)
Mississippi State
(5)
(5)
(5)
Washington
(6)
(4)
(5)
UW Green Bay
(6)
(9)
(7)
Nebraska
(6)
(7)
(7)
Georgia
(6)
(6)
(6)
Princeton
(7)
(11)
(7)
James Madison
(7)
(11)
(8)
Michigan
(7)
(8)
(10)
Pittsburgh
(7)
(6)
(8)
California
(8)
(8)
(11)
St. John's
(8)
---
---
Miami (FL)
(8)
(10)
(9)
Oklahoma
(8)
(4)
(5)
Seton Hall
(9)
(12)
(8)
Iowa State
(9)
(6)
(8)
Dayton
(9)
(9)
(7)
South Florida
(9)
(7)
(6)
Western Kentucky
(10)
(12)
(9)
Washington State
(10)
(7)
(12)
Rutgers
(10)
---
(10)
Ohio State
(10)
(8)
(11)
Syracuse
(11)
(10)
(12)
Chattanooga
(11)
(12)
(10)
Tulane
(11)
(10)
(9)
Northwestern
(11)
(9)
(10)
Long Beach State
(12)
(13)
(13)
Fresno State
(12)
(13)
(13)
West Virginia
(12)
---
---
Gonzaga
(12)
(11)
(9)
Florida Gulf Coast
(13)
(11)
(12)
UA Little Rock
(13)
(12)
(11)
Quinnipiac*
(13)
(15)
(15)
Wichita State
(13)
(13)
(13)
Akron
(14)
(13)
(13)
Hampton
(14)
(14)
(14)
American
(14)
(14)
(14)
South Dakota
(14)
(14)
(14)
Liberty
(15)
(15)
(15)
Sacramento State
(15)
(15)
(15)
Central Conn. State
(15)
(15)
(16)
Albany
(15)
(14)
(14)
UT Pan American
(16)
(16)
(16)
UT Martin
(16)
(16)
(15)
Lamar
(16)
(16)
(16)
Texas Southern
(16)
(16)
(16)
Ole Miss
----
---
(11)
Arkansas
----
(8)
(12)
Vanderbilt
----
(9)
---
N.C. State
----
(10)
---


*Quinnipiac is credited with the MAAC's automatic bid in Charlie Creme's Bracketology. I credit Marist with the MAAC's automatic bid from now until eternity, or until the Red Foxes lose a conference tournament. This is the "Marist Exception".

The new S-Factor is harsher on teams like Princeton and Green Bay -- really good teams from mid-major conferences. This is by design, given the NCAA women's basketball tournament selection committee's recent history of giving these types of teams seeds that are much worse than predicted. It was not by design however that Seton Hall, DePaul and St. John's would all be doing so poorly in the S-Factor. The new Big East has only four teams in the top-100 of RPI this year, and their conference RPI is just a notch above the Ivy League.

Now in:
Syracuse
Tulane
Seton Hall
Akron
Sacramento State
Central Connecticut State
Texas-Pan American
Lamar

Now out:
Southern California
Oklahoma State
DePaul
Eastern Washington
Cal State Bakersfield
Ball State
Bryant
Northwestern State

Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
SEC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Pac-12: 6
Big 12: 4
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

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