Monday, January 5, 2015

January 5 Update: Polls and Outliers

The table below shows the S-Factor in relation to the AP poll, the RPI rankings, and last year's S-Factor formulation.


Team
AP
RPI
2015 S-Factor
2014 S-Factor
South Carolina
1
12
10
8
Connecticut
2
2
7
4
Texas
3
8
4
5
Notre Dame
4
1
2
1
Baylor
5
13
17
14
Louisville
6
8
1
2
Tennessee
7
5
24
16
North Carolina
8
6
12
12
Texas A&M
9
36
19
15
Kentucky
10
3
5
3
Oregon State
11
29
13
18
Maryland
12
16
3
6
Duke
13
17
14
23
Mississippi State
14
35
11
10
Stanford
15
44
26
36
Oklahoma State
16
84
70
59
Iowa
17
10
8
11
Arizona State
18
4
6
7
Nebraska
19
26
22
31
Georgia
20
45
32
29
Syracuse
21
67
48
65
Princeton
22
19
44
32
Minnesota
23
15
9
9
Rutgers
24
53
63
46
Western Kentucky
25
23
51
43
Washington
26
18
21
25
St. John's
27
30
29
17
Florida State
29
28
18
24
Washington State
30
49
16
20
California
32
25
25
28
Ohio State
33
31
15
21
Northwestern
34
37
20
19
Green Bay
35
7
33
27
South Florida
38
20
31
22
George Washington
40
22
23
13

The S-Factor is in rough agreement with the voters of the AP regarding many of the teams, but there are some interesting outliers. The S-Factor ranks Oklahoma State, Syracuse, and Rutgers far below their positions in the AP poll, and this is mostly due to their poor RPI so far. Syracuse and Rutgers have no wins better than 63 RPI Arkansas so far, while Oklahoma State has feasted upon cupcake teams en route to the 275th most difficult schedule in the 349-team NCAA Division 1.

The S-Factor thinks quite highly of Maryland, Louisville and Minnesota. Maryland and Louisville rank higher than the AP poll mainly because of their three top-25 wins each. No other team has more than three top-25 wins, though Connecticut, Kentucky and Vanderbilt also have 3. Minnesota ranks highly because they've played and won more conference games than any other team in an elite conference. While it is most definitely a good thing to win conference games, this early Big Ten schedule just means that Minnesota's numeric advantage in the S-Factor will ebb by the time the season is over and they will fall more or less in line with the AP ranking.

Now in:
South Florida
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Wichita State
Western Michigan
Albany
Liberty
Southern U.
North Dakota St.

Now out:
Arkansas
Seton Hall
West Virginia
Indiana State
Akron
South Dakota St.
Maine
High Point
Prairie View A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
Atlantic 10: 2
American: 2
Atlantic Sun: 2
West Coast: 2

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