March 3 Update: The SEC Was Totally Bonkers This Year

Everybody, look how crazy this SEC tournament bracket is! Florida (RPI 65) is a 5-seed, LSU (RPI 12) is a 10-seed!  Five schools finished with a 7-9 record in the SEC this year, 6th through 10th place.  I have no idea what's going to happen in the SEC tournament, but I'm really excited about it!



Now in:
Fordham   (Fordham is one of four Atlantic 10 teams whose only top-25-RPI win is over St. Joseph's. St. Joseph's has an unusually high RPI for the number of middle-tier teams it's lost to.  Fordham is one of these teams, and will not be going to the NCAA tournament unless they win the Atlantic 10 tournament.)

Central Michigan    (The Chippewas played a harder non-conference schedule this year than Bowling Green and have the MAC's only top-50-RPI win out-of-conference (Dayton). Still, I don't think the MAC is a two-bid conference this year.)

Minnesota   (It finally happened. Charlie Creme has been calling it for weeks. Minnesota finally cracked into these rankings, despite the fact that their best win is against Chattanooga.)


Now out:
Florida   (Very big drop that has more to do with RPI rankings of Vanderbilt and St. John's tanking than because of their loss to Texas A&M on Sunday, which was expected. I would wager Florida still makes the field despite their poor RPI.)

San Diego   (Good riddance.)   

Creighton   (1. They beat Villanova, but Villanova is no longer a top-50-RPI team.  2. They beat St. John's, but St. John's is no longer a top-25-RPI team.  3. They lost to Marquette.)



ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(5) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech

AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(11) Rutgers

Atlantic 10 Teams:
(6) Dayton
(10) St. Joseph's
(10) Fordham

Big East Teams:
(7) DePaul
(10) St. John's

Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Nebraska
(4) Purdue
(5) Iowa
(5) Michigan State
(11) Minnesota

Big 12 Teams:
(2) West Virginia
(3) Baylor
(6) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(9) Iowa State

Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(8) Southern Miss

MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan

PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(7) California
(7) Oregon State
(8) Arizona State

SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(8) Vanderbilt
(9) LSU
(9) Georgia

West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(6) BYU

December 13 Update: Finals Week

As of this update, the Big East only shows up with one bid, Villanova. This is the first time in approximately forever that one could say this about the Big East.  It is only a temporary situation: both St. John's and DePaul were dropped out of the S-Factor for losing this week to SEC teams (Kentucky and Auburn), but they'll probably be back soon. 

If anything, this only highlights how stacked the SEC is this year.  Five SEC teams are still undefeated (Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina) and three more have only one loss (LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri). The conference as a whole stands at 108-22 right now, which is the second least amount of losses for a conference this year.  The Big 12 has one less loss but four fewer teams (and 48 fewer wins).   



Now in:
Texas
Ole Miss
BYU

Now out:
St. John's
Middle Tennessee State
DePaul

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Pac 12: 5
American: 3
West Coast: 3

 

Last Notes Before the Conference Tournaments

 - The Big 12 regular season wrapped up on Tuesday, and the conference tournament starts tomorrow in Dallas.  After West Virginia's unexpected loss to Texas on Tuesday, for the first time all season, the S-Factor is showing only five Big 12 teams to make the tournament: Baylor (1), Iowa State (5), Oklahoma (6), Texas Tech (8), and Oklahoma State (11).

 - Backing into West Virginia's place in the tournament for now is Illinois, but St. John's is a much more likely candidate for a slot in the field. With an impressive 11-5 record in the Big East, all but three of their 11 losses coming against NCAA tournament teams, 34th ranked RPI, and an important first round hosting slot, St. John's is pretty much a no-brainer for a tournament bid (an anomalous loss to RPI 203 Seton Hall is currently costing them about 5-6 S-Factor points, which would have put them somewhere around an 8-seed in the S-Factor had they won). 

 - I think Illinois, South Florida, St. Joseph's, and Oklahoma State are the bubbliest teams right now that I have shown in the field.



 - Conferences where the conference tournament has little chance of altering the selection of at-large bids: SEC, ACC, Pac-12.  The SEC is very likely getting 7 teams in: there is a huge gap between 7th place Vanderbilt (9-7 SEC) and 8th place Arkansas (6-10 SEC).  Likewise between 5th place Miami (11-7 ACC) and 6th place Virginia (8-10 ACC), and between 4th place Colorado (13-5 Pac-12, 23 RPI) and 5th place Washington (11-7 Pac-12, 83 RPI). 

Now in:
Illinois

Now out:
West Virginia

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2

Ascendant Teams - Big Conferences

March is a month away, and the conference season continues to weed the good from the bad. Right now there is a vast middle field where teams could either play their way in or out of the tournament.  These are the teams with the most positive movement in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor in each of the big conferences right now. 


Big 10
Ascendant team: Illinois
The Big Ten is one of the more volatile conferences this year.  One can envision plausible paths to a tournament berth for nine different teams (Ohio State is amazingly not one of these nine).  Currently Illinois is the most ascendant team.  Now at 6-3 in the Big Ten, they should be able to manage a 10-6 conference record or possibly an 11-5.  Wins over Georgia and Nebraska should outweigh losses to Bradley and Illinois State. 












Big 12
Ascendant team: West Virginia

The Big 12 is once again the best conference in the NCAA in terms of RPI, and it has the best team in the nation (Baylor).  But what Baylor lacks is an in-conference foil, the Notre Dame to Connecticut, the Cal to Stanford, the St. Mary's to Gonzaga.  In years past this role has been played by Oklahoma or Texas A&M, but Oklahoma is not as strong as in years past (thanks in part to the many torn ligaments in the knees of their players, including Whitney Hand) and Texas A&M is raising hell in the SEC.  Basically the Big 12 is Baylor, then everyone else, then TCU.  The result is that Baylor is currently on something like a 479-game conference winning streak, and those middle eight teams could win or lose on any given night to any of the others. Last week was a particularly good week for West Virginia, which beat both Oklahoma teams to get back into the middle of the Big 12 pack.  Their next four games will either make or break the Mountaineers: at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Oklahoma State at home, and Iowa State at Hilton.  I can see them going 0-4, 4-0 or anything in between.


Big East
Ascendant team: Rutgers
The Big East is similar to the Big 12 in that there is a clear three-way split of the teams ranging from really really good to really really bad. On top of everyone are Connecticut and Notre Dame; below everyone are Pittsburgh, Providence, Seton Hall and Cincinnati; and in the middle are nine teams that could beat or lose to most any of the other teams on any given night.  The most unstable of these teams seems to be Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have gone 4-1 in their last 5 games, but they managed to let truly-awful Seton Hall hold them to a season-low 42 points in a loss two weeks ago.  Rutgers has a pretty good path to a 9-7 conference record, which would put them firmly on the bubble for the tournament.







Pac 12
Ascendant team: Washington
The Pac 12's chronic RPI deficiency was supposed to be helped out by the addition of Utah to the ranks, but it has been Colorado that has provided the boost the conference has lacked in years past.  Unfortunately, any increase in competitiveness by an improved Colorado has been offset by a lackluster Arizona State and USC.  Right now the Pac 12 is still only getting 4 teams in, but the Washington Huskies have looked strong lately.  They are on a six game winning streak, but their victories have been over the Pacific Northwest's cupcake trio of Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State, as well as Arizona and the aforementioned disappointing Arizona State.  Still, they have a really good shot at going 12-6 in conference (in part because they only play Stanford, Cal and Colorado once).






SEC
Ascendant team: Missouri
The SEC is made up of five great teams (Tennessee, Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina), four pretty awful teams (the ones from Alabama and Mississippi) and five middle teams where anything is possible.  Vanderbilt has the best conference record of these teams (5-4) and currently has the best tournament resume, but Florida, LSU, Arkansas and even Missouri, which just Davided the Tennessee Goliath, have reasonable paths to a tournament berth. 












ACC
Ascendant team: none
The maximum number from the ACC in the tournament will likely be six, barring an amazing seven game winning streak by Georgia Tech. Virginia is currently the team out, but they'll probably finish 11-7 in conference and be back in.
















Now in:
Illinois
Gonzaga
Utah State
Eastern Kentucky
Navy
Montana

Now out:
Georgetown
Virginia
Belmont
Seattle
American
Montana State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2

Conference Season: A Blessing, A Curse

Kentucky jumped up in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor by 10 spots by beating Middle Tennessee State 81-72 last night with the assistance of Victoria Dunlap's 13 second half points.

For Middle Tennessee, it was their last game before the Sun Belt conference season begins. Middle Tennessee has built up a high RPI ranking (18th) both by playing very few bad teams and by playing winnable games against moderately good teams. But the problem for Middle Tennessee, as far as their at-large tournament hopes go, is that the Blue Raiders don't have a signature win over a top 50 team. In that sense, the beginning of the Sun Belt conference regular season is a bit of a curse because there aren't any more chances to score a big name win.

For Kentucky, it's just the opposite. Kentucky has mostly laid low in the non-conference season. Except for a win over Notre Dame, Kentucky has not beaten a team ranked better than 90th all season prior to last night's victory. Kentucky had been ranked #41 in terms of RPI. But the beginning of the SEC regular season a week from today is a blessing, because there are ample opportunities to score big name wins in the SEC conference. (Also, the fact that Kentucky plays Duke next Tuesday will help them immensely).


Now in: Tulane, Oklahoma State
Now out: Oklahoma

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2