Thursday, March 7, 2013

Last Notes Before the Conference Tournaments

 - The Big 12 regular season wrapped up on Tuesday, and the conference tournament starts tomorrow in Dallas.  After West Virginia's unexpected loss to Texas on Tuesday, for the first time all season, the S-Factor is showing only five Big 12 teams to make the tournament: Baylor (1), Iowa State (5), Oklahoma (6), Texas Tech (8), and Oklahoma State (11).

 - Backing into West Virginia's place in the tournament for now is Illinois, but St. John's is a much more likely candidate for a slot in the field. With an impressive 11-5 record in the Big East, all but three of their 11 losses coming against NCAA tournament teams, 34th ranked RPI, and an important first round hosting slot, St. John's is pretty much a no-brainer for a tournament bid (an anomalous loss to RPI 203 Seton Hall is currently costing them about 5-6 S-Factor points, which would have put them somewhere around an 8-seed in the S-Factor had they won). 

 - I think Illinois, South Florida, St. Joseph's, and Oklahoma State are the bubbliest teams right now that I have shown in the field.

 - Conferences where the conference tournament has little chance of altering the selection of at-large bids: SEC, ACC, Pac-12.  The SEC is very likely getting 7 teams in: there is a huge gap between 7th place Vanderbilt (9-7 SEC) and 8th place Arkansas (6-10 SEC).  Likewise between 5th place Miami (11-7 ACC) and 6th place Virginia (8-10 ACC), and between 4th place Colorado (13-5 Pac-12, 23 RPI) and 5th place Washington (11-7 Pac-12, 83 RPI). 

Now in:

Now out:
West Virginia

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 7
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
Pac-12: 4
Atlantic 10: 4
Missouri Valley: 2

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