Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Who Got Screwed? An Annual Tradition

This year I found 7 bracket projections (which take into account bracketing principles) and 26 ranked lists for a total of 33 women's basketball predictions by which one could predict the selection of tournament teams into the NCAA field of 64.

They are as follows:
Brackets

  1. Charlie Creme - ESPN.com
  2. Matt Olson - Omnirankings.com
  3. CSM Staff - CollegeSportsMadness.com
  4. Matt5762 - boards.rebkell.net
  5. pilight's field of 64 - boards.rebkell.net
  6. RealTimeRPI's bracket prediction
  7. My bracket prediction

Rankings


  1. S-Factor (2015 version)
  2. S-Factor (old "blend")
  3. Charlie Creme without procedural bumps - ESPN.com
  4. D1SN "poll" - William Lansdale - D1sportsnet.com
  5. AP poll
  6. Coaches' poll
  7. SpaceJunkie - boards.rebkell.net
  8. RealTimeRPI RPI (Sunday, March 15 update)
  9. RealTimeRPI power
  10. Sagarin Rating - http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
  11. Sagarin ELO
  12. Sagarin PurePoints
  13. Sagarin GoldenMean
  14. Massey Rating - masseyratings.com
  15. Massey Power Rating
  16. Omni Rankings - omnirankings.com
  17. RPI from Warren Nolan
  18. RPI from NCAA
  19. Warren Nolan's NPI - http://warrennolan.com/basketballw/2015/npi
  20. Adjusted Stats - http://www.adjustedstats.com/ratings-stats/cwbkbewpratings.php
  21. Sonny Moore's Computer Power Ratings - http://www.sonnymoorepowerratings.com
  22. Bennett Rank - http://www.bennettrank.com/college-rankings/d1-womens-basketball-rankings/
  23. Georgia Tech - LRMC rankings - Bayesian - http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmcW/
  24. Georgia Tech - LRMC rankings - Classic
  25. Georgia Tech - LRMC rankings - LRMC(0)
  26. NCAA Win-Loss percentage
On each of these ranked lists, I found the 64 teams that would have been predicted by said list - 32 at-large bids and 32 automatic bids. Some of these lists produce rankings similar to how the selection committee examines teams, and some produce wild and unrealistic lists.  I looked at the difference between the actual seed that the team earned from the selection committee and the average seed predicted by each list (after I removed the outliers: NPI, W-L%, and the polls, which don't produce a full list).  


Deviation from average
Average predicted seed
Actual seed
Team
-4.50
3.50
(8)
Princeton
-3.64
8.36
(12)
James Madison
-1.79
7.21
(9)
DePaul
-1.75
14.25
(16)
Montana
-1.64
11.36
(13)
Wichita State
-1.61
10.39
(12)
W. Kentucky
-1.43
7.57
(9)
Green Bay
-1.25
10.75
(12)
Quinnipiac
-1.25
12.75
(14)
Ohio
-1.18
12.82
(14)
So. Dakota St.
-0.96
6.04
(7)
Fla. Gulf Coast
-0.96
15.04
(16)
NMSU
-0.86
5.14
(6)
South Florida
-0.86
5.14
(6)
George Washington
-0.75
7.25
(8)
Rutgers
-0.71
13.29
(14)
BYU
-0.50
8.50
(9)
Nebraska
-0.39
15.61
(16)
Savannah St.
-0.36
10.64
(11)
UALR
-0.36
2.64
(3)
Louisville
-0.29
1.71
(2)
Baylor
-0.26
10.74
(11)
Miami (FL)
-0.25
13.75
(14)
American
-0.21
7.79
(8)
Syracuse
-0.18
14.82
(15)
Boise State
-0.18
1.82
(2)
Tennessee
-0.07
6.93
(7)
Northwestern
-0.07
15.93
(16)
St. Francis (NY)
-0.06
10.94
(11)
LSU
0.00
1.00
(1)
Notre Dame
0.00
3.00
(3)
Oregon State
0.00
4.00
(4)
Duke
0.04
1.04
(1)
South Carolina
0.11
11.11
(11)
Gonzaga
0.11
4.11
(4)
Stanford
0.11
7.11
(7)
Dayton
0.14
2.14
(2)
Florida State
0.25
1.25
(1)
Connecticut
0.25
1.25
(1)
Maryland
0.29
4.29
(4)
North Carolina
0.36
12.36
(12)
Tulane
0.44
10.44
(10)
Oklahoma St.
0.46
15.46
(15)
Tennessee St.
0.52
10.52
(10)
Pittsburgh
0.57
3.57
(3)
Arizona State
0.59
9.59
(9)
Seton Hall
0.68
5.68
(5)
Ohio State
0.79
13.79
(13)
Albany
0.79
10.79
(10)
Iowa State
0.86
13.86
(13)
CSU-Northridge
0.93
15.93
(15)
NW State
0.96
5.96
(5)
Texas
1.00
16.00
(15)
Alabama State
1.12
11.12
(10)
Arkansas
1.18
6.18
(5)
Mississippi State
1.21
4.21
(3)
Iowa
1.25
7.25
(6)
Texas A&M
1.25
8.25
(7)
Chattanooga
1.71
14.71
(13)
Liberty
1.71
6.71
(5)
Oklahoma
1.82
7.82
(6)
Washington
1.86
9.86
(8)
Minnesota
1.93
5.93
(4)
California
2.32
4.32
(2)
Kentucky
The winner (loser) this year of the title of Most Screwed Team was Princeton. Congratulations Princeton!  With an average predicted seed of 3.5, the selection committee's decision to give the 30-0 Tigers the 8-seed came as a surprise to Charlie Creme and almost everyone else, though the S-Factor did correctly predict that Princeton would be slotted as an 8-seed. Of note: last year's Most Screwed Team, BYU, won their opening round game and went on to the Sweet 16.

Of course this method of determining the Most Screwed Team only looks at the teams that got selected to participate in the tournament. Those teams that were left out may feel that their bubble was unjustly popped.  By arranging the teams in order by the number of ranked lists that included them, we can arrive at another measure of screwed-ness.



Rank

no. of pred.

% of pred.

Actual seed

Team

1

33

100%

(2)

Kentucky

1

33

100%

(2)

Florida St.

1

33

100%

(2)

Tennessee

1

33

100%

(3)

Louisville

1

33

100%

(3)

Arizona St.

1

33

100%

(3)

Iowa

1

33

100%

(3)

Oregon St.

1

33

100%

(4)

California

1

33

100%

(4)

N. Carolina

1

33

100%

(5)

Miss. St.

1

33

100%

(6)

S. Florida

1

33

100%

(6)

Texas A&M

1

33

100%

(7)

N’western

1

33

100%

(8)

Rutgers

15

32

97%

(4)

Duke

15

32

97%

(5)

Texas

15

32

97%

(5)

Ohio State

15

32

97%

(8)

Syracuse

15

32

97%

(9)

Seton Hall

20

31

94%

(6)

Washington

20

31

94%

(7)

Dayton

22

30

91%

(9)

Nebraska

23

29

88%

(5)

Oklahoma

24

28

85%

(10)

Okla. St.

25

24

73%

(11)

Miami (FL)

26

23

70%

(8)

Minnesota

26

23

70%

(10)

Pittsburgh

28

22

67%

(11)

Gonzaga

29

20

61%

(10)

Iowa State

30

18

55%

(11)

LSU

31

17

52%

(10)

Arkansas

32

14

42%

 

Michigan

33

12

36%

(12)

Tulane

33

12

36%

Michigan St.

35

6

18%

MTSU

35

6

18%

Duquesne

37

5

15%

Villanova

37

5

15%

Stetson

37

5

15%

Penn

37

5

15%

San Diego

37

5

15%

Georgia

37

5

15%

St. John's

43

4

12%

TCU

44

3

9%

N.C. State

44

3

9%

West Virginia

44

3

9%

Arkansas St.

47

2

6%

Indiana

47

2

6%

Wright State

47

2

6%

East Carolina

47

2

6%

South Dakota

47

2

6%

Hawaii

47

2

6%

Illinois

53

1

3%

Georgia Tech

53

1

3%

Army

53

1

3%

Colorado St.

53

1

3%

Maine

53

1

3%

S.F. Austin

53

1

3%

CSU-Bakersfield

53

1

3%

Akron

53

1

3%

Bryant

53

1

3%

Pacific

53

1

3%

Washington St

 

There was only one team included in this year's tournament that was selected by only a minority of ranked lists, and that was Tulane. If the 32 highest vote-getting teams made the tournament as at-large teams, then Michigan would have been included instead of Tulane.  Still, Michigan wasn't a slam dunk at all, being selected by only 42% of rankings.
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