Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Pick Distribution Charts for 2015 Predictions

I found 33 women's basketball rankings this year and made some charts about the distribution of picks for each team culled from the ranking methods identified in this post.   

Connecticut wasn't predicted as a #1 seed by every list and bracket. Those that did not pick Connecticut first were, like the S-Factor, reliant on RPI data to the exclusion of scoring data.

All 33 rankings had Notre Dame as a #1 seed.

Kentucky was the luckiest team in terms of seeding variation from the average. Only 4 predictions placed Kentucky as high as a 2 seed.

Chattanooga had the widest spread and the most variety of predictions, with ten different predicted seeds from a 3 seed to a 13 seed.

Only one ranking method predicted that Princeton would be as low as an 8-seed, and that was the S-Factor.  No one else was within 1 seed.

LSU had the least consensus. No single seed was picked by more than 4 ranking lists.

Tulane was picked by the fewest number of ranking lists and brackets. Just 12 predicted the Green Wave's inclusion in the field. Sadly the S-Factor was not one of them.

Alabama State was Bizarro Notre Dame.  Every prediction showed them as a 16 seed, yet the NCAA Selection Committee placed the SWAC champs as a 15 seed, likely so the Lady Hornets wouldn't have to travel so far. They play 2-seed Florida State in Tallahassee.

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