Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Who Got Screwed?

As part of my annual bracketology-ology summary of which women's tournament predictions were the best (coming soon), I analyzed seven bracket predictions and 21 team ranking systems.  They are as follows:

1. Charlie Creme's bracketology
2. My bracket
3. RealtimeRPI's predicted bracket
4. Omni Rankings - "Macro" bracket
5. Omni Rankings - "Micro" bracket
6. "The Field of 64" - pilight's bracket on Rebkell.
7. Matt5762's bracket on Rebkell.

Ranking systems:
8. S-Factor
9. WBBState's "The State"
10. RealtimeRPI power rankings
11. Sagarin ratings
12. Sagarin ELO CHESS only
13. Sagarin PURE POINTS only
14. Massey ratings
15. Massey's power ratings
16. Omni "Macro"
17. Omni "Micro"
18. Warren Nolan's "NPI"
19. SporTheory's rankings
20. Sonny Moore's Computer Power Ratings
21. composite ratings
22. "Win ratings"
23. "UPS Team Performance Index"
24. RPI calculated by NCAA
25. RPI calculated by RealtimeRPI
26. Win-loss percentage (from
27. AP poll
28. Coaches poll

For the ranking systems, I created a list of 64 teams that would have been predicted as being in the tournament by that system; that is, the top 33 at-large teams along with the 31 automatic bids.

I averaged the seed that would have been predicted by each bracket or ranking system.  Then I took the difference between the average predicted seed and the actual seed handed out by the selection committee.  The following is the list of all the tournament teams ranked in order from most screwed by the committee to least screwed.

By this method, Green Bay is the most screwed team in America. No ranking system or bracket had them below a 9 seed, yet they received an 11 seed.  Gonzaga too was drastically underseeded.

Others toward the top of this list (Albany, Quinnipiac) have a high average due to some out-there ranking systems, namely WBBState's "The State", Warren Nolan's NPI, Stats LLC's TPI, and the straight up W-L percentage.  So I made another list taking these four ranking systems out. 

In both lists Kansas is at the bottom of the list with a DIV/0 error. This is because not one prognostication selected Kansas into the field of 64. Kansas was ESPN's Charlie Creme's only selection error, the seventh team out in his rankings behind San Diego State, Charlotte, Toledo, Ohio State, Pacific, Florida Gulf Coast, and the team he had in in Kansas's stead, Duquesne.

The following is a list of at-large teams sorted by how many predictions would have selected them.

If the selection committee was run by the consensus of the internet, San Diego State, Michigan, West Virginia and Duquesne would have been the last teams in, and DePaul (surprisingly), Creighton, Ohio State and Charlotte the first four out. Kansas is at the bottom of the list, picked by no one to be a part of the tournament.

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