Line Change in Automatic Bids

Texas A&M had yet another great game this weekend against Baylor at home in front of the largest crowd ever to witness a women's basketball game in College Station. This time though, the Aggies fell short by a score of 63-60. Odyssey Sims, the superstar freshman guard for Baylor, led the way with 25 points including the go-ahead bucket with 26 seconds left. Brittney Griner was held to "merely" 17 points and 12 rebounds. Baylor's win improved their RPI enough to move the Bears back into a predicted number 1 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Elsewhere in the country. this weekend saw ten conference leaders losing games, which led to seven new automatic bid placeholders.

1. In the Atlantic Sun, Campbell College took North Florida to two overtimes but couldn't pull off the win.

2. In the Big Sky, Montana beat in-state rival and conference leader Montana State in a revenge match from the previous week, when the Bears lost to the Bobcats at home.

3. In the Big South, former conference leader Gardner Webb lost to UNC Asheville by a point.

4. In the Big 10, former conference leader Michigan State was upended by Iowa.

5. In the MAC, Toledo emerged from a difficult week with the conference lead, after beating former conference leaders Kent State and Bowling Green.

6. In the Missouri Valley conference, Missouri State's loss to Creighton on Thursday stripped the Bears of the conference lead.

7. In one of the strangest results of the week, TCU, a team that was cruising towards an automatic bid, lost two games to the two teams with the worst records in the Mountain West; New Mexico and Air Force.

8. In the Patriot League, Navy lost to Colgate (Colgate's best win of the season), but Navy still retains the presumed automatic bid.

9. In the Southland Conference, McNeese State suffered their first loss of the conference season to Central Arkansas, but retains the conference lead.

10. Middle Tennessee State was tripped up by the Golden Panthers of Florida International, which means UA Little Rock now has the lead in the Sun Belt Conference.


Now in: Arizona State, Wyoming, Radford, East Tennessee State, Toledo, UA Little Rock, Northern Iowa
Now out: Northwestern, TCU, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Kent State, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The Danielle Show

In a spectacularly entertaining game to watch, Texas A&M squared off against Oklahoma last night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, and the Aggies walked off the court with a two-point squeaker of a win, 80-78.

Players named Danielle combined to score 64 of the 158 points. Neither Danielle Adams nor Danielle Robinson would give an inch; both players had more than 30.

But Danielle Adams was more dominant all around. Gary Blair had this to say to Sooner fans: "You all had Courtney Paris for four (years). I only get (Adams) for two."

The result moved Texas A&M up to a number 1 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, but a better predictor of a #1 seed will come this weekend for the Aggies. They face top-ranked Baylor at College Station on Sunday.

Now in: Kansas State
Now out: Arizona State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

It's Foe Week

One of the biggest unknowns in bracket prediction is trying to guess which small conference bubble teams are going to be in the tournament if those teams lose their conference tournaments. Teams like Gonzaga, Middle Tennessee, Bowling Green and Green Bay are all good teams. Their non-conference schedules have shown they can compete with the big conference teams, and in some cases win. But they have to be almost perfect against the conference spread if they want any sort of insurance policy against an unusual loss in their conference tournament.

These teams all have foes, teams from within their conference that are good enough to steal a win away. For Gonzaga the foe is usually St. Mary's, and this year is no exception. Middle Tennessee State's intra-conference foe is the very good team from Little Rock, which made the tournament last year as an at-large team to the surprise of many. Green Bay's foe is Butler this year; like Green Bay, Butler is undefeated in the Horizon. And the MAC has evolved to create two foes for Bowling Green this year: Kent State and Toledo both share Bowling Green's 5-1 conference record.

Foe games are important because they are the only challenges these elite small-conference teams have between December and March, a sparse data point or two for bracketologists.

This week is setting up to be quite a week for foe games. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's for the first time tomorrow, Bowling Green plays Toledo tonight for the only scheduled time this season, and Green Bay travels to historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis tomorrow to challenge Butler for sole Horizon League supremecy.

Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

If Womens Basketball Was Like Boxing

Bet you didn't know there was a title fight last night. 17th-ranked Miami had won 17 in a row coming in to last night's game against 22nd-ranked Florida State, but the Hurricanes lost in Tallahassee 66-59. If collegiate women's basketball worked like boxing, Florida State would now posess a number one seed.

To make this boxing analogy work, let's say that a title belt is equivalent to a #1 seed in the tournament. And let's assume that the top four teams in the preseason AP poll got to have the #1 seeds. These belonged to UConn, Baylor, Stanford and Tennessee on November 1st. Furthermore, let's say that every single game played is like when someone challenges a champion for his title. When Connecticut beat Baylor on November 16th, Connecticut assumed control of the 2nd #1 seed (let's call this the WBO belt). But when Connecticut lost to Stanford on December 30th, they gave up both their own belt (WBA, let's say) and the WBO belt.

If you follow this analogy, the #1 seeds today would be: Stanford, Stanford, Stanford and Florida State. See the chart below.

Because Smokin' Joe Tennessee's first loss was to Georgetown Foreman, and Georgetown's first loss after that was to Miami Ali, and Miami's first loss after that was to Florida State last night, Florida State now has the last #1 seed.

Obviously this has no bearing in reality. Washington State, worst BCS-conference team in the nation, briefly held the #1 seed when they beat Cal (who beat Arizona State, who beat DePaul, who beat Stanford). I guess they would be the Leon Spinks of womens basketball.



Now in: Southern University
Now out: Alabama A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The Lone Undefeated

A crazy come-from-behind win by Duke over North Carolina State on Sunday keeps the Blue Devils at the top of the College Women's Hoops S-Factor standings. Freshman Chelsea Gray's layup with 12 seconds left kept Duke's undefeated season alive for at least a few more days. (One week from today, Duke squares off with Connecticut.) With Florida Gulf Coast losing last week for the first time all season, Duke is now the only undefeated team in the nation, but they are ranked third in the country behind Baylor and Connecticut. Duke's stratospheric RPI is due in part to the fact that they have played and beaten seven top 25 RPI teams this year, the most in the country (second place is Connecticut at six, followed by Baylor and Stanford with four each).


Now in: Navy, Syracuse, Wisconsin
Now out: Army, St. John's, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The Trampoline Teams

Vanderbilt and LSU are two teams from the SEC that have been in and out of the College Women's Hoops S-Factor's predicted at-large bids. Well, more like in and out and in and out and in and out and in. Both the Commodores and the Tigers have crossed the line separating those in the tournament from those on the outside seven times, more than any other team (St. John's is next, having crossed the line four times).

Both LSU and Vanderbilt had wins last night, Vanderbilt's win over 23rd ranked Arkansas being more impressive than LSU's blowout of Ole Miss. Because of these wins, the S-Factor predicts both of these teams are back in the tournament. For now. LSU plays Florida this weekend, and Vanderbilt plays Kentucky. Vanderbilt has more to gain and less to lose from this weekend's matchup, but both Kentucky and Florida should present challenges to these trampoline teams.

Now in: Vanderbilt, LSU, Appalachian State
Now out: Creighton, Tulane, UNC Greensboro

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Polar Bears

Last night 1,486 devoted Jayhawk fans made the trek through a snowstorm to watch Kansas get walloped by Baylor 76-37 inside Phog Allen Fieldhouse. The number 1 team in the land was unchallenged; Baylor made Kansas look bad both offensively and defensively. Not only did Kansas have no answer for Brittney Griner (who does?), but they also had no answer for anyone else on Baylor's team. This loss kicks Kansas out of the presumed at-large bids according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

As I'm posting this in the afternoon, I already know there is going to be at least one game that messes with the S-Factor tomorrow. Arizona State just lost to Washington State. Arizona State is the weakest of the four Pac-10 teams projected by the S-Factor to make it into the tournament, and Washington State is one of the weakest major conference teams (second only to Oregon State). A loss to the Cougars certainly hurts Arizona State's chances at making the field of 64, although it remains to be seen if it hurts them that much.


Now in: Missouri State, Houston, Army
Now out: Vanderbilt, Kansas, American University

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
Missouri Valley: 2

Atlantic 10 Ruling; Mountain West Drooling

Of all the mid-major conferences (defined as conferences that are not the Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10, Atlantic Coast and Southeast Conference), two of the 26 (counting the Great West) rank higher than all others in terms of the number of at-large bids garnered over the past few years: the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West. It seems like it's a rare year when the Atlantic 10 doesn't get three teams into the NCAA tournament, and the Mountain West is so full of parity that the annual conference tournament is often completely up for grabs.

But this year there is no question as to which conference is better. The Atlantic 10 is having a great year as a whole. As of right now, eight teams from the 14-team conference are ranked in the top 75 of RPI. Three Atlantic 10 teams are in Charlie Creme's field of 64, and two more are on the cusp. While the College Women's Hoops S-Factor only lists two, the S-Factor is unreasonably stingy to mid-major conferences at this point in the year. Xavier is being talked about as a 2 seed; Duquesne has been on everyone's list since they beat Ohio State; Temple, Charlotte and Dayton are all very close to being in the big dance; and St. Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, and Richmond have all been competitive in their biggest games.

The Mountain West, however, has been pretty weak as a conference whole. Many of the traditional powers are having off years. Both the Utes of Utah and the Lady Lobos of New Mexico lost a lot of games in a difficult non-conference schedule, but kept losing once the conference season began. San Diego State has achieved an 8-8 record so far with their best win coming against Dayton and a loss to the non-aligned Roadrunners of Cal State Bakersfield. BYU and Wyoming are the only two challengers to what is looking like a dominant run by TCU this year. Wyoming was crushed by TCU last week, and BYU travels to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs tonight. With only a single top-50-RPI win in the entire conference this season (that being TCU's victory over 50th ranked Oklahoma earlier this year), the Mountain West is looking like a one-bid conference this year.

Now in: Vanderbilt
Now out: Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Mid-Major Monday

Besides the drubbing of North Carolina by Connecticut, Monday was a quiet day for the big conference teams. But Mondays are always busy days for teams from small conferences. The conference leaders from the Big South (Liberty), the Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State) and the Northeast Conference (St. Francis (PA)) all lost on Monday. Their presumed automatic bids were taken over by Gardner Webb, Robert Morris, and the Camels of Campbell College.

In addition, due to daily RPI fluctuation, Charlotte and Missouri State traded places, which means the Bears are now slated for an at-large bid according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor. Missouri State is having another good season, and they are at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings along with Creighton and Northern Iowa. Creighton is credited with the Valley's presumed automatic bid just because of inertia: they held the conference lead on their own more recently than the other teams.

Now in: Robert Morris, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Missouri State
Now out: East Tennessee State, St. Francis (PA), Liberty, Charlotte

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2

Ohio Stuff

The Big 12 had an exciting weekend as a conference. All twelve teams played in six games. Of those six games, four went to overtime. The two that didn't: Texas A&M and Baylor both blew out their opponents. Judging by the results so far in the first three rounds of Big 12 games, it's probably safe to say that anything can happen on any given day ... except for Baylor or Texas A&M losing, which probably won't happen unless they're playing each other.

Ohio State may have ended their long slump into mediocrity by beating Michigan State 67-53 and giving the Spartans their first conference loss and their first overall loss since Baylor way back in November.

Other big news in Ohio; Bowling Green lost to Kent State 44-43 in Mid America Conference action, Bowling Green's second loss of the season and the first since a rather fluky one point loss to the Purple Aces of Evansville at the beginning of the season. This means Bowling Green has lost by a combined two points in their two losses this season.

Now in: Kent State, St. John's, Ohio State, Charlotte
Now out: Bowling Green, California, LSU, Wisconsin

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3

Buckeyes Going Off the Rails

On Sunday, December 5th, 2010, 6th ranked and undefeated Ohio State walked off their home court in Columbus, Ohio after handing a game Oklahoma team its first loss of the season thanks in part to Jantel Lavender and her 32 points. It was a given that the Big Ten conference season was going to be Ohio State's to lose, again, for the seventh straight regular-season championship.

Since going off the court that day, Ohio State has gone off the rails. Ohio State has recorded three wins and six losses since that day. Last night Ohio State lost to Northwestern for the first time since 2000. The previous 19 games between the two teams had been won by the Buckeyes. And for the first time this season, Ohio State has lost its College Women's Hoops S-Factor-predicted at-large bid.

It won't get much easier for the Buckeyes. Thanks to the Big Ten's unusual number of teams, each team plays 6 of the other conference teams twice and 4 of them just once. The four teams Ohio State plays only once are the four worst teams in the league in terms of S-Factor ranking (Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin). Ohio State's next game is against conference leader Michigan State.

While Ohio State's difficult schedule will weigh on the minds of the selection committee, it will mean nothing if Ohio State can't crack .500 in the Big Ten conference (they're currently 1-3).



Now in: Cal Poly, East Tennessee State, Wisconsin, LSU
Now out: Lipscomb, UC Irvine, Ohio State, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

Better Sooner Than Later

Hey y'all, Oklahoma's back! The Sooners' ugly, zero-three-pointers victory over Kansas State gives them two wins to start the conference season, and they have now ascended back to a ranking of 39 and a predicted 10 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Other games of note:

• TCU rode into Laramie, Wyoming and absolutely demolished the Wyoming Cowgirls 68-47, which shifted the Mountain West's presumed automatic bid over to the Horned Frogs.
• Some other Cowgirls, those from McNeese State, did a little bit better. McNeese State ended Lamar's 21-game home winning streak with a 57-53 victory on a night Lamar was playing without their leading shot-blocker and rebounder Trashanna Smith. Lamar's senior guard and former Sooner Jenna Plumley scored 11 points.
• Connecticut routed St. John's last night in Madison Square Garden by a score of 84-52. The win put Connecticut back into the #1 position in the S-Factor, and also removed St. John's from the group of teams with predicted at-large bids.

Now in: TCU, Oklahoma, McNeese State, Vanderbilt
Now out: Wyoming, Lamar, Syracuse, St. John's

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 8
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

The Outliers

It's hard to tell which teams selected by the College Women's Hoops S-Factor are mistakes and which ones are legitimate since there is only one confirmation test per year. But when one compares the S-Factor to other rankings generated by humans and computers, one gets a sense of where the outliers are.

Clearly the S-Factor is having problems seeing the merit of teams from mid-major conferences. The Horizon League's Wisconsin-Green Bay is ranked in both national polls, Charlie Creme's week old bracket has them in as a 5 seed, and a collection of models (Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Steven Jens and Sonny Moore) puts the Phoenix somewhere around a 7 seed. Yet the S-Factor huffily bestows an automatic-only seed of 11. Bowling Green, out of the Mid America Conference, winners of 14 games in a row and very close to being nationally ranked, is getting an average of a 7 seed by the computers (Steven Jens thinks they're the 16th best team in the country). But the S-Factor deigns only to give them a 12 seed, and nothing at all if they lose their conference tournament.

There are also teams that the S-Factor is infatuated with. Michigan, despite dropping their last two games, shows up high in the S-Factor with a predicted 6 seed, which is 4 seeds higher than the nearest outside computer model (Sagarin) would have them. (The S-Factor really loves those wins over Ohio State and Iowa). Creme's bracket doesn't even show Michigan in the "last four out" category. Another Big Ten team much loved by the S-Factor is Penn State, a team both humans and computers agree should be seeded somewhere south of an 8 seed (if at all). But the S-Factor puts them as the highest of the 5 seeds.

Some teams that seem too highly ranked with regard to human polls and brackets are actually mostly in line with other computer rankings. DePaul (2), Marquette (3), Texas Tech (5) and Louisville (7) are all teams that get more respect from number crunching than from human prognosticators, and the S-Factor sides more with the computers. The S-Factor also agrees with computers when humans appear to be overly sympathetic to some teams, like Ohio State (9), Kentucky (9), Syracuse (10) and Boston College (10).

And then there's the curious case of Oklahoma. Charlie Creme has them as a 6 seed. The polls would have them in with a 4 seed. Looks good for them, right? But according to RPI, the Sooners aren't anywhere near being in the tournament. The computer models Massey, Sagarin, and Jens all put them about where the S-Factor does around the mid-forties. But Sonny Moore ranks them 12th in the country, which would correspond to a 3 seed. Crazy!


Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

New Feature!

Because I just love a good graph, I have introduced a timeline of College Women's Hoops S-Factor rankings for each team in the Big 12 conference. Just click on the Big 12 Chart tab at the top of the page. I will try to update this chart at the same time as I update the S-Factor table most every weekday. And I may even add other conferences very soon.



Now in: St. Francis (PA)
Now out: Sacred Heart

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Slouching Tigers, Rising Techsters

The first conference games for the Big 12 occured this past weekend, a very active weekend for almost every team. Iowa State started the conference season with arguably their hardest game, Baylor at Waco; the Cyclones lost. Texas failed to secure a win after leading Missouri by 12 points with under three minutes to go. And Texas Tech scored an important win over Kansas at Lawrence, propelling the Red Raiders up to a dubiously high 5-seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

One unusual game that had ramifications for many teams was on Thursday when LSU lost to South Carolina. The loss pushed the Tigers down out of the S-Factor-predicted at-large bids, but it also knocked LSU out of the top 50 in RPI.

Because of this, several teams that scored victories against LSU suddenly had a weaker strength of schedule. Tulane, most precipitously, dropped 28 spots in the S-Factor just because of the LSU loss (even though Tulane now has won 6 games in a row and is still slated in the S-Factor to get the automatic bid from Conference USA).

Ohio State and Northwestern, teams that have beaten LSU this year, dropped 15 spots and 5 spots respectively (although Ohio State's loss to Iowa on Saturday certainly doesn't help matters).

The biggest gainer from LSU's loss? Louisiana Tech. LSU had beaten the Lady Techsters earlier this year. It seems counterintuitive that an opponent that beat your team earlier in the year and now has a lower RPI than before can actually boost your team's ranking. But now instead of winning 2 out of 4 against top 50 teams, Louisiana Tech has won 2 out of 3. It's enough of a difference to lift Louisiana Tech 20 spots in the S-Factor. Sometimes the numbers are just crazy in Mid-Majoropolis.



Now in: California, Purdue, St. John's
Now out: LSU, Arizona, Texas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

The New Regrettably Ineligible Atlantic Sun Teams

The Atlantic Sun conference for the past three years has sent East Tennessee State to the NCAA tournament, for in each of these years East Tennessee State has won the Atlantic Sun tournament. But excluded from participating in this tournament has been a relatively strong team from Florida Gulf Coast University.

Florida Gulf Coast today is one of only four teams in Division I that remain undefeated (the others are Duke, North Carolina and West Virginia). FGCU is getting votes in both the AP and the ESPN/USA Today Polls, and they have used their relatively short non-conference season (Atlantic Sun teams have to play 20 conference games) to beat Indiana, Seton Hall and Virginia Tech. But they, along with their Atlantic Sun conference mates from South Carolina Upstate, are ineligible to participate in either the Atlantic Sun conference tournament or the NCAA tournament. Both FGCU and USC Upstate are new to Division I and are going through the final year of their four-year transition.

Both Florida Gulf Coast and South Carolina Upstate are 4-0 in the Atlantic Sun Conference, the only two teams to be undefeated in conference play.

South Dakota State went through a similar transition a couple of years ago. Their first season of tournament eligibility ended with a 7-seed and a trip to the second round of the NCAA tournament. Florida Gulf Coast has the potential to do something similar next year.


Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)


Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

Cardinals Rise

The biggest game last night was probably Duke versus Kentucky, which Duke won thanks to Jasmine Thomas's 24 points and three blocked shots. But the biggest game in terms of movement in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was Louisville versus St. John's.

St. John's has yet to beat a team ranked in the top 50 in RPI, and prior to last week, their biggest marquee game was arguably against Marist in the season opener. But St. John's had amassed an impressive-sounding 12-1 record, and were ranked in the AP poll. They lost at Maryland in a game Maryland never trailed, and now have lost to Louisville. Their next two games: DePaul and Connecticut. St. John's may start the Big East season 1-3 (the one win coming from a Seton Hall game in the beginning of December).

Louisville, meanwhile, is in the process of turning the ship around after losing to both Marist and Houston in the Duel in the Desert. In this win over St. John's, four Cardinals scored in double-digits, including a double-double the hard way for Shoni Schimmel (11 points, 11 assists). Next up for them is a less-than-dominant Pittsburgh and a challenging-but-beatable Notre Dame. Two wins will serve Louisville's tournament resumé quite well.


Now in: Georgia, LSU
Now out: Oklahoma State, St. John's

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 2

The Problem with RPI (and the S-Factor)

Charlie Creme, resident women's bracketologist for ESPN, has published his first guess of the season. His number one seeds are Connecticut, Duke, Tennessee and Baylor, which I would agree are the obvious top four teams in the nation right now. The College Women's Hoops S-Factor, however, does not agree with Creme, putting 6 teams in front of Baylor, the #1 team in the nation right now according to the most recent AP poll. It is entirely a strength of schedule issue, a flaw that appears more in RPI numbers than in real life.

Let's compare Texas A&M with Baylor. Both Baylor and A&M have only one close loss so far, to elite teams (Duke, Connecticut) at the home arena of those teams. They've played similar numbers of top 50 teams (Texas A&M: 5, Baylor: 4) and have similar winning percentages in those games.

But humans and computers diverge in two key ways. Humans love Baylor because they have a huge marquee win to their credit (over Tennessee), while Texas A&M's biggest victory has come at the expense of Michigan, a team with much less cachet than the legendary Lady Vols. Computers, however, don't recognize "cachet" unless you program it into them. Computers prefer Texas A&M because they have played only two games to sub-100-ranked teams, while Baylor has played 9 such games. Baylor's schedule has included great teams and terrible teams, while Texas A&M's schedule has mostly been full of pretty good teams.

A team that plays 10 mediocre teams will have the same strength of schedule as a team that plays 5 great teams and 5 terrible teams. If both teams win every game, computers would rank the two teams equally. But Team B beat 5 great teams! They should be much higher ranked than Team A, according to a human's analysis.



Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2

Happy New Year!

And what a crazy weekend. The Pac-10 and Big Ten conference seasons started since last I updated the numbers. In the Big Ten, highly-ranked Ohio State and highly-ranked Iowa are a combined 0-3 in conference games, having both lost to Michigan, a team that surged 32 spots in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor rankings to #9.

Tennessee State, in a game against Georgia Tech, shot 6% (3 for 50) from the field on their way to setting a new NCAA record for fewest points in a game. Georgia Tech won 82-11. Tennessee State's three first half points was also a new record for least points in a half, coming on three free throws. The good news? Tennessee State nearly tripled their first half production in the second half.

Nebraska's Lindsey Moore achieved a triple double (12 points, 11 assists, 10 boards) against Florida A&M, the program's first.

The triumphant return of Whitney Hand to Oklahoma's lineup was not enough to overcome the sizeable duo of TCU's Emily Carter and Helena Sverrisdottir. Three Sooners fouled out in the 76-69 loss, which allowed TCU to attempt 38 free throws, 27 of them in the second half alone. Oklahoma coach Sherri Coale called it "obscene".

And I hear there was some game out in the bay area. Something about a streak ending.



Now in: Arizona, Texas, Louisville
Now out: LSU, Purdue, Vanderbilt

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big 12: 7
Big Ten: 6
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 3
Atlantic 10: 2