February 29 Update: Why Doesn't Connecticut Ever Leap (Day) to the Front In These Rankings?

For the entire month of February, Connecticut's ranking in the S-Factor has been between 5 and 7, good enough for a seed of 2. But everyone who follows women's basketball knows that Geno Auriemma's UConn Huskies are the best team in the nation unquestionably. The always-dominant Huskies are perhaps as good as they've ever been, helmed by possibly the best player in UConn history (citation: MC Barrett's espnW article entitled "Is Breanna Stewart the Best UConn Player in History?"). 

If the S-Factor has the dominant Huskies down as a 2-seed, how can any of these other rankings be trusted?

The answer lies in the way that the S-Factor treats conference rankings. Strength of conference is a big part of the S-Factor, and it became even bigger in 2014 when I reexamined my rankings to account for the NCAA Selection Committee's persistent tendency to favor teams from strong conferences and to punish teams from weaker conferences. 

Connecticut is far and away the best team in the American Athletic Conference. Despite containing the best team in all of women's college basketball, the American Athletic Conference is ranked 9th in RPI, behind the Big East, Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference.   The top six teams in the AAC are ranked 3, 30, 58, 82, 102 and 161 in the RPI. For comparison, in the Atlantic 10, a very competitive league this year, the top six teams have RPI rankings of 23, 29, 39, 54, 72, and 84.  

The mathematical forces that keep Connecticut from being ranked #1 in the S-Factor are the same mathematical forces that keep Santa Clara, San Diego and Western Kentucky out of the (predicted) tournament. I'd rather the S-Factor make an error in seeding, prominent though it may be, than an error in tournament inclusion. I feel that this is about as good as one can do without using a score-based method like the Sagarin Ratings, which have their own strengths and weaknesses. 

Now in:
St. Bonaventure
Saint Louis
Quinnipiac

Now out:
Purdue
Oregon
Iona

Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
(1) South Carolina
(3) Florida
(3) Kentucky
(4) Mississippi State
(4) Georgia
(5) Texas A&M
(7) Missouri
(8) Tennessee
(10) Auburn

Pac 12: 5
(2) Arizona State
(2) Oregon State
(2) UCLA
(3) Stanford
(6) Washington

Big 12: 6
(1) Baylor
(1) Texas
(5) West Virginia
(5) Oklahoma State
(6) Oklahoma
(9) Kansas State

Big Ten: 5
(4) Maryland
(4) Ohio State
(6) Michigan State
(8) Indiana
(11) Minnesota

ACC: 5
(1) Notre Dame
(3) Louisville
(5) Syracuse
(6) Florida State
(9) Miami (FL)

Big East: 3
(7) DePaul
(7) Seton Hall
(11) Villanova

Atlantic 10: 4
(8) Duquesne
(8) St. Bonaventure
(9) George Washington
(10) Saint Louis

Ivy League: 2
(9) Princeton
(10) Pennsylvania

American: 2
(2) Connecticut
(10) South Florida

December 19 Update: The AAC Problem

The table below shows how the S-Factor stacks up against the AP poll, the Coaches poll, and RPI at this point in the season.  

Team	AP	Coaches	RPI	S-Factor
South Carolina	1	1	6	3
Connecticut	2	2	2	23
Texas	3	3	21	4
Texas A&M	4	5	19	9
Notre Dame	5	4	1	2
North Carolina	6	6	7	5
Stanford	7	7	24	16
Kentucky	8	8	3	1
Baylor	9	9	15	19
Louisville	10	10	30	11
Tennessee	11	12	28	28
Nebraska	12	15	8	7
Duke	13	13	14	27
Maryland	14	11	40	14
Georgia	15	17	50	33
Oregon State	16	14	37	12
Rutgers	17	19	73	60
Michigan State	18	21	85	66
Syracuse	19	22	43	29
Oklahoma State	20	16	171	91
Mississippi State	21	20	41	24
West Virginia	22	18	26	8
Iowa	23	24	12	18
California	24	23	12	20
Depaul	25	26	89	68
St. John's	29	25	25	37
UW Green Bay	26	33	4	30
Northwestern	27	28	22	17
Arizona State	28	40	9	6
Princeton	30		10	31
James Madison	33	27	5	39
South Florida		29	39	45
Seton Hall		30	16	35

The American Athletic Conference is really weak as a whole this year, which is why Connecticut is ranked 23rd in the S-Factor right now.  Since Louisville is no longer a part of the American, it can't really be argued that the AAC is better than conference RPI would suggest.

Connecticut's RPI will not suffer too much this year, since the Huskies will play many tough non-conference opponents this year.  But they will be saddled with a women's basketball conference roughly as challenging as the Colonial League.  It will be a huge disappointment if the Huskies don't run the table, but even that might not be enough to improve their standings in the S-Factor.   

Now in:
Oregon State
Tennessee
N.C. State

Now out:
Kansas State
Western Kentucky
Oklahoma

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
SEC: 8
ACC: 8
PAC 12: 7
Big 12: 3
American: 3
Big East: 2