Comparisons to Charlie Creme's Bracketology

The penultimate run of the S-Factor changed little from Monday's run since most conference tournament games happened over the weekend.  It should be even less volatile for the last run, excepting Delaware, St. Joseph's, Green Bay, Creighton, and other teams from conferences whose tournaments have not yet been completed.

This is as good a time as any to point out the major differences between the S-Factor and Charlie Creme's bracketology, which has become the industry standard. 

S-Factor: Duquesne in, West Virginia second out
Creme: West Virginia in, Duquesne first out

The S-Factor favors Duquesne due to a better RPI ranking (41 to 52), fewer losses (7 to 13), and conference tournament wins (1 to 0). This outweighs West Virginia's better conference RPI and record against top 50 teams in my model. When weighted against conference RPI, 9-9 in the Big 12  is about equivalent to 11-3 in the Atlantic 10.


Purdue
S-Factor: 4-seed
Creme: 7-seed

5% of the S-Factor score comes from conference tournament performance. Winning the Big Ten tournament bumped Purdue from a 7-seed to a 4-seed in the S-Factor. Tournament games also bumped SEC-winning Texas A&M from a 5-seed to a 3-seed in the S-Factor, which is where Creme has them.

Michigan State
S-Factor: 5-seed
Creme: 8-seed

The S-Factor has been a little more bullish on Michigan State since February when they beat Purdue, a team high in RPI and low in respect.

Gonzaga
S-Factor: 7-seed
Creme: 11-seed

The West Coast Conference is in 7th place out of 31 conferences in terms of RPI, ahead of even the Atlantic 10. It has four teams in the top 75 in RPI and no teams with a strength of schedule in the bottom half of the country, which makes Gonzaga's current 15 game winning streak more impressive than similarly positioned teams like Delaware and Green Bay. That would be my pitch to the selection committee to give Gonzaga the 7-seed rather than a 10- or 11-seed (as a host school it is unlikely to get an 8- or 9-seed because that would involve a 1-seed playing an away game in the second round.).  

Green Bay
S-Factor: 10-seed
Creme: 7-seed

It's hard to feel confident in an evaluation of a team when that team plays few marquee games. An impressive 26-2 record is hedged by the fact that all we really know is that Green Bay is the best team in Wisconsin. 

Texas Tech
S-Factor: 10-seed
Creme: 6-seed

As much as conference RPI plays a role in the S-Factor (and therefore teams in the Big 12, the nations top RPI conference, get a slightly larger boost than other major conferences), a team's RPI  counts for more, as do top 25 and top 50 wins. The entire non-Baylor Big 12 has no non-Iowa State top 25 wins (Iowa State is 22nd in RPI but has been in and out of the top 25 all season).

Texas Tech doesn't even have an Iowa State win. The Red Raiders have a 48th ranked RPI, which is solidly in the  bubble team zone historically.  I'm not saying there's a chance Tech will miss the tournament (a Big 12 team missing the tournament after winning more than 60% of their games would be an outrage). I'm just saying that everything besides conference winning record (three straight losses to unranked opponents, no conference tournament wins, ten losses on the season, soft non-conference schedule coupled with an unimpressive performance, best win all season was against the Big 12's 5th place team) points to a 10-seed or worse (like Gonzaga, Tech is a host school unlikely to be an 8- or 9-seed even if their resume was up to that level)

Princeton
S-Factor: 12-seed
Creme: 9-seed

I'd like to say Princeton's downfall in the S-Factor was their loss to Harvard, the lone blemish against a dominating Ivy League performance, but it would be untrue: the S-Factor has never had Princeton higher than a 12 seed. Princeton's impressive 26th ranked RPI is offset by the Ivy League's unimpressive 18th (of 31) conference RPI. 

Host Teams and the Brackets

There's a new bracket prediction up.

The first and second rounds of the women's NCAA tournament will be played at 16 predetermined sites hosted by 16 different schools. Unlike in the men's tournament, the women's tournament rules state that if a host school gets into the tournament, that school is required to play at its own site.

This year six out of the AP poll's top seven teams are slated to host: Baylor, Connecticut, Stanford, Tennessee, Xavier and Duke. Most brackets (including mine) seed these teams #1 and #2.

Since no other host team can be grouped with these teams, it means there will not be a host team seeded 8 or 9, and there may be fewer host teams seeded 7 or 10 than the S-curve would predict.

Could this have bracketing implications? Most definitely. The other host teams likely to make the field this year are Louisiana Tech, Penn State, Gonzaga, Ohio State, and Maryland. Maryland looks like a lock for a 3, 4, 5, or 6 seed and would therefore be unaffected, but one of the other four may artificially move up or down depending on bracketing needs.

And I'm sure none of the other potential 2-seeds who are not hosting do not relish the thought of having to play a second round game on the road. I think it's fairly likely that one of the potential 2-seeds (Texas A&M definitely, maybe UCLA, Michigan State or Notre Dame) will end up playing in Columbus, OH; University Park, PA; or possibly even in Bossier City, LA or Spokane, WA.

Whatever the result, Texas A&M will surely be the best team in the tournament to be shipped 1000 miles away for their first two games. Bossier City (the closest first round site not located in Waco) would actually be the most attractive scenario for the Aggies.


Now in: Montana State, Charlotte, Temple, Southern California, Princeton, St. Francis (PA)
Now out: Northern Colorado, Harvard, Robert Morris, Arkansas, Arizona State, Boston College

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Atlantic 10: 4
PAC-10: 3

Line Change in Automatic Bids

Texas A&M had yet another great game this weekend against Baylor at home in front of the largest crowd ever to witness a women's basketball game in College Station. This time though, the Aggies fell short by a score of 63-60. Odyssey Sims, the superstar freshman guard for Baylor, led the way with 25 points including the go-ahead bucket with 26 seconds left. Brittney Griner was held to "merely" 17 points and 12 rebounds. Baylor's win improved their RPI enough to move the Bears back into a predicted number 1 seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.

Elsewhere in the country. this weekend saw ten conference leaders losing games, which led to seven new automatic bid placeholders.

1. In the Atlantic Sun, Campbell College took North Florida to two overtimes but couldn't pull off the win.

2. In the Big Sky, Montana beat in-state rival and conference leader Montana State in a revenge match from the previous week, when the Bears lost to the Bobcats at home.

3. In the Big South, former conference leader Gardner Webb lost to UNC Asheville by a point.

4. In the Big 10, former conference leader Michigan State was upended by Iowa.

5. In the MAC, Toledo emerged from a difficult week with the conference lead, after beating former conference leaders Kent State and Bowling Green.

6. In the Missouri Valley conference, Missouri State's loss to Creighton on Thursday stripped the Bears of the conference lead.

7. In one of the strangest results of the week, TCU, a team that was cruising towards an automatic bid, lost two games to the two teams with the worst records in the Mountain West; New Mexico and Air Force.

8. In the Patriot League, Navy lost to Colgate (Colgate's best win of the season), but Navy still retains the presumed automatic bid.

9. In the Southland Conference, McNeese State suffered their first loss of the conference season to Central Arkansas, but retains the conference lead.

10. Middle Tennessee State was tripped up by the Golden Panthers of Florida International, which means UA Little Rock now has the lead in the Sun Belt Conference.


Now in: Arizona State, Wyoming, Radford, East Tennessee State, Toledo, UA Little Rock, Northern Iowa
Now out: Northwestern, TCU, Gardner Webb, Campbell, Kent State, Middle Tennessee State, Missouri State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2

Ohio Stuff

The Big 12 had an exciting weekend as a conference. All twelve teams played in six games. Of those six games, four went to overtime. The two that didn't: Texas A&M and Baylor both blew out their opponents. Judging by the results so far in the first three rounds of Big 12 games, it's probably safe to say that anything can happen on any given day ... except for Baylor or Texas A&M losing, which probably won't happen unless they're playing each other.

Ohio State may have ended their long slump into mediocrity by beating Michigan State 67-53 and giving the Spartans their first conference loss and their first overall loss since Baylor way back in November.

Other big news in Ohio; Bowling Green lost to Kent State 44-43 in Mid America Conference action, Bowling Green's second loss of the season and the first since a rather fluky one point loss to the Purple Aces of Evansville at the beginning of the season. This means Bowling Green has lost by a combined two points in their two losses this season.

Now in: Kent State, St. John's, Ohio State, Charlotte
Now out: Bowling Green, California, LSU, Wisconsin

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 4
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 3