Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Unexpected January Conference Losses: Are They Really Consequential?

The Pacific Tigers are in an interesting spot this year.  They have had a pretty good season so far and a decent resume for a small conference team.  They beat St. Mary's, Seattle and Fresno State, three teams leading their respective conferences right now. They have played two big conference teams this year, Florida and Stanford. They lost big to Stanford and hung close to Florida.  Best of all, their RPI is very high, 29th right now. 

But this past weekend they lost at Cal Poly by one point, 96-95. 

That loss would put them out of the tournament according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor (Cal State Northridge now owns the automatic bid for the Big West Conference).  But in real life will that one loss by one point in a high-scoring game matter to the selection committee?

The selection committee will only need to make a selection decision about Pacific if Pacific loses their conference tournament in March, which in itself will be another mark against letting Pacific into the big dance.  So maybe one random loss in January won't be very consequential after all.

Now in:
Virginia
Texas Tech
St. Mary's
CSU Northridge
Akron
Fresno State
Davidson
Central Arkansas
Tennessee Tech
Seattle
Lehigh
Southern

Now out:
Pacific
Duquesne
Chattanooga
Toledo
San Diego State
Gonzaga
Ohio State
Lamar
Louisiana Tech
Murray State
Holy Cross
Prairie View A&M

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big East: 7
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
PAC 12: 4
Colonial: 2


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