Biggest mover over the last week was St. Mary's; with their one point conference season opening victory over West Coast juggernauts Gonzaga, the Gaels jump back into the S-Factor-predicted tournament.
The S-Factor is predicting a 5-seed for St. Mary's, which is absurdly high, though not as absurd as Sacramento State's 4-seed. The Hornets of Sacramento State are bolstered in the formula by their top 50 and top 25 wins: over Oregon (RPI 33) and over ... St. Mary's (RPI 15) on December 5th in Sacramento. This, so far, is St. Mary's only loss of the season.
Now in:
St. Mary's
James Madison
Vanderbilt
Auburn
Temple
Nebraska
Marquette
Hampton
Now out:
Texas
UCLA
Penn State
Oregon State
West Virginia
Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders
Northwestern
North Carolina A&T
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 9
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 6
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 3
Big East: 2
Colonial: 2
Predicting the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament since 2008
Updates Mondays and Fridays
Monday, December 30, 2013
Monday, December 23, 2013
December 23 Update: Winter Break
Most colleges are taking a couple of days off for Christmas this week. The next update to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor will therefore be next Monday.
Now in:
Oregon State
UCLA
West Virginia
Now out:
Oklahoma :(
St. Mary's
Nebraska
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
PAC 12: 7 (!)
Big 12: 5
American: 2
West Coast: 2
Conference USA: 2
Now in:
Oregon State
UCLA
West Virginia
Now out:
Oklahoma :(
St. Mary's
Nebraska
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
PAC 12: 7 (!)
Big 12: 5
American: 2
West Coast: 2
Conference USA: 2
Friday, December 20, 2013
December 20 Update: Consistent Excellence is Boring and Beautiful at the Same Time
Connecticut's annual flogging of Duke occurred this week. For the third year in a row, Duke came into the game undefeated, and for a third year in a row Duke got walloped. The predictability (inevitability) of this result serves only to reinforce the widely held (and correct) view that Connecticut is an unstoppable force in a sport with very few opposing immovable objects (Skylar Diggins and Brittney Griner being the two most recent).
Now in:
Middle Tennessee State University
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Now out:
Virginia Tech
Temple
Oregon State
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 5
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Conference USA: 2
Now in:
Middle Tennessee State University
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Now out:
Virginia Tech
Temple
Oregon State
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 8
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 5
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Conference USA: 2
Labels:
2014,
Brittney Griner,
Connecticut,
Duke,
Skylar Diggins,
UConn
Monday, December 16, 2013
December 16 Update: Philly Women's Ball
It's a pretty good time for women's basketball in Philadelphia right now. St. Joseph's is on an eight-game winning streak, finding themselves fourth in RPI thanks to some decent scheduling of good mid-major teams like Wichita State, Princeton and Quinnipiac. Two of their wins have come against fellow Philadelphia teams Temple and Villanova, which puts St. Joseph's on top of the Big 5 leaderboard. Villanova currently holds the best overall record in the Big East, and Temple will be in contention this year for the best non-Connecticut non-Louisville team in the new American Athletic Conference. Drexel has wins over Providence and St. John's and looks in okay shape to have another pretty good season, Penn is on a four game winning streak, and La Salle ... well, five out of six ain't bad.
Now in:
Princeton
Oregon State
Virginia Tech
St. Mary's
Now out:
Auburn
West Virginia
BYU
Harvard
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Pac 12: 6
Big 12: 4
American: 3
West Coast: 3
Now in:
Princeton
Oregon State
Virginia Tech
St. Mary's
Now out:
Auburn
West Virginia
BYU
Harvard
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 9
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Pac 12: 6
Big 12: 4
American: 3
West Coast: 3
Labels:
2014,
Drexel,
La Salle,
Pennsylvania,
Philadelphia,
St. Joseph's,
Temple,
Villanova
Friday, December 13, 2013
December 13 Update: Finals Week
As of this update, the Big East only shows up with one bid,
Villanova. This is the first time in approximately forever that one
could say this about the Big East. It is only a temporary situation:
both St. John's and DePaul were dropped out of the S-Factor for losing
this week to SEC teams (Kentucky and Auburn), but they'll probably be
back soon.
If anything, this only highlights how stacked the SEC is this year. Five SEC teams are still undefeated (Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina) and three more have only one loss (LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri). The conference as a whole stands at 108-22 right now, which is the second least amount of losses for a conference this year. The Big 12 has one less loss but four fewer teams (and 48 fewer wins).
Now in:
Texas
Ole Miss
BYU
Now out:
St. John's
Middle Tennessee State
DePaul
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Pac 12: 5
American: 3
West Coast: 3
If anything, this only highlights how stacked the SEC is this year. Five SEC teams are still undefeated (Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina) and three more have only one loss (LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri). The conference as a whole stands at 108-22 right now, which is the second least amount of losses for a conference this year. The Big 12 has one less loss but four fewer teams (and 48 fewer wins).
Now in:
Texas
Ole Miss
BYU
Now out:
St. John's
Middle Tennessee State
DePaul
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 8
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Pac 12: 5
American: 3
West Coast: 3
Labels:
2014,
Arkansas,
Big East,
DePaul,
Georgia,
Kentucky,
LSU,
Mississippi State,
Missouri,
SEC,
South Carolina,
St. John's,
Tennessee
Monday, December 9, 2013
December 9 Update: The Rise of Gonzaga
Now in:
Gonzaga
Oregon
Middle Tennessee State
North Carolina State
Temple
Auburn
Colorado State
Now out:
BYU
Texas
Vanderbilt
St. Mary's
Marquette
Seton Hall
Utah State
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 4
Big East: 3
American: 3
Conference USA: 2
West Coast: 2
Gonzaga
Oregon
Middle Tennessee State
North Carolina State
Temple
Auburn
Colorado State
Now out:
BYU
Texas
Vanderbilt
St. Mary's
Marquette
Seton Hall
Utah State
Conferences with multiple bids:
ACC: 8
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 7
PAC 12: 5
Big 12: 4
Big East: 3
American: 3
Conference USA: 2
West Coast: 2
Friday, December 6, 2013
December 6 Update
Now in:
Oklahoma
Seton Hall
Texas
North Carolina
North Carolina A&T
Utah State
Now out:
Washington State
George Washington
Eastern Michigan
Temple
Hampton
Wyoming
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 5
Big East: 5
PAC-12: 4
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Oklahoma
Seton Hall
Texas
North Carolina
North Carolina A&T
Utah State
Now out:
Washington State
George Washington
Eastern Michigan
Temple
Hampton
Wyoming
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 5
Big East: 5
PAC-12: 4
West Coast: 3
American: 2
Monday, December 2, 2013
The Hiatus is Over
New mostly meaningless S-Factor, over there, to the right!
My first post last year showed Dayton occupying a number 1 seed, and they ended up as a 7 seed. And that was three weeks later in the season than it is now. I guess what I'm saying is, lots will change.
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
PAC-12: 5
Big East: 4
American: 3
Big 12: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
MAC: 2
Conferences with multiple bids:
SEC: 7
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
PAC-12: 5
Big East: 4
American: 3
Big 12: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
MAC: 2
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