Now in:
Iowa State (Talk about playing your way in! Since I posted my "term paper" on how Iowa State was probably not going to get a tournament berth, the Cyclones ripped off two impressive wins over Texas and Oklahoma State, and put themselves back into the tournament.)
Creighton (The Blue Jays have now won four in a row. This fact combined with St. John's losing three in a row mean that Creighton is now in a three-way race for first in the wide open Big East going into the final week.)
Georgia Tech (Like I said on Monday, they sealed the deal with a win over Florida State. Even if they slip out of the S-Factor later for some reason, they're in.)
High Point (One Radford win away from the Big South regular season championship)
Texas Southern (The torch was passed: the Lady Tigers of Texas Southern are now alone atop the SWAC)
Now out:
Florida State (At best they'll be 7-9 in the ACC, and they've gone 4-9 in their last 13.)
Villanova (Six losses in the new Big East and no non-Creighton top 50 wins isn't going to get a bid)
VCU (VCU did the S-Factor a favor by losing on Wednesday. The Rams were never going to get a bid, even with a win.)
Winthrop (Losses to Liberty and High Point in the past two games put the Eagles behind High Point in the Big South)
Southern U. (The loss to Alabama State knocked Southern University out of the top of the SWAC standings)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(2) North Carolina State (will not be a 2-seed)
(4) Maryland
(6) North Carolina
(6) Syracuse
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(3) Louisville (will not be a 3-seed)
(11) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(5) Dayton
(8) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(8) DePaul
(9) St. John's
(11) Creighton
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(4) Nebraska
(4) Purdue
(5) Iowa
(6) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(2) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(7) Oklahoma State
(8) Texas
(10) Iowa State
Conference USA Teams:
(7) Middle Tennessee State
(9) Southern Mississippi
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(5) California
(6) Arizona State
(10) Oregon State
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Kentucky
(7) Vanderbilt
(8) LSU
(10) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(5) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego
Showing posts with label Iowa State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa State. Show all posts
Friday, February 28, 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014
February 21 Update: Iowa State's and Oklahoma's Diverging Paths
For years the Big 12 Conference has been well-represented in the NCAA tournament. 50% or more of its teams have been selected for the tournament in 13 out of the 17 years of the Big 12's existence. It has been 8 years since fewer than 6 teams were selected to go to the tournament, including the most recent two years since the Big 12 has been shrunk from twelve members to ten members.
The S-Factor today shows only four Big 12 teams in the tournament: Baylor, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Given the conference's history one would speculate that this estimate is probably too low, and that surely Oklahoma and Iowa State would be offered invitations to the big dance also, like Charlie Creme says. I think this is half true. I believe that Iowa State is likely going to be out of the tournament, but Oklahoma will be in. Here's why.
Oklahoma had a big gutsy win against Texas on Pack the Place Pink Night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman on Wednesday. As a Sooner fan, I'm still on an adrenaline high from the win. The Sooners had no business even being competitive, what with star guard and leading scorer Aaryn Ellenberg out with a concussion, and yet they pulled out the win in dramatic fashion, with Morgan Hook scoring the team's final three points and Texas not getting a fast break layup off in time before the final buzzer sounded.
On the same night as Oklahoma's big win, Iowa State went down to Waco and laid a turd, losing by 38 points. No one expected a Cyclones win, but the apathy with which they played was surprising.
Now Iowa State is at 6-8 in conference (tied with TCU) and Oklahoma is at 7-7. For Oklahoma, three out of the remaining four games are against the bottom four teams in the conference (the other one is at Baylor). It is very likely that Oklahoma will be 9-9 or 10-8 in conference play when the regular season concludes on March 3. With Iowa State, it's a completely different story. Three out of the remaining four games for Iowa State are against the top four teams in the conference (the other one is at Kansas, a team the Cyclones beat by only 3 points last weekend at home in Ames). It is very likely that Iowa State will be 7-11, and 8-10 is impossible unless they can beat either Texas, Oklahoma State or Baylor, teams the Cyclones are 0-3 against this year.
So let's say that Iowa State manages to achieve an 8-10 record for the 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Would that be enough to get them in the NCAA tournament?
In the 17 year history of the Big 12 Conference, there have been 21 teams that have finished with a record of one game under .500 (7-9 or 8-10). Only 8 of those teams have been offered tournament bids (38%). But, six out of the last seven teams that finished one game under .500 in the conference has made it to the tournament, the lone exception since 2006 being the 2012 snub of 8-10 Oklahoma State. That would be great for Iowa State then, right?
Well, the reason that the NCAA selection committee felt such generosity for mediocre Big 12 teams in years past is because that since 2008 the Big 12 has been the toughest conference in the country in terms of RPI. Before this season, one could make a strong argument that 8-10 in the Big 12 was equivalent to, let's say, 11-7 in the PAC-12; on any given night, a pretty good team could easily lose to an overperforming eleventh place team. (Imagine removing the bottom half of the ACC and replacing it with, like, six TCUs).
This year though, the Big 12 is fourth in RPI. Of the five teams that have gone one game under .500 in a season that the Big 12 has been ranked fourth or worse, zero of them have received tournament berths. Even getting to .500 is no automatic path to the Big Dance in years where the Big 12 is down: only one of the four teams that went .500 in conference play in a year that the Big 12 was fourth or worse in RPI has received a tournament bid (Oklahoma, 2005). And if Iowa State finishes 7-11? No team 2 games below .500 in conference has ever received an at-large tournament berth in the Big 12.
What about Oklahoma's chances this year? 9-9 in the Big 12 (or 8-8 in the old Big 12) has been good enough for a berth 59% of the time, though it's been 100% of the time since 2006 and only 30% of the time before then. And teams going one game above .500 (10-8 or 9-7) have missed out on the tournament only twice since 1997: once in 2006 when the selection committee decided to snub Marsha Sharp in her last season at Texas Tech for some reason, and once for Missouri in 2003 when the Big 12 was the fifth strongest conference. Both of those teams had 14 losses and RPI's over 60.
This is why I believe that barring a very surprising last four games, Iowa State is out and Oklahoma is in. Hopefully S-Factor will catch up to this prediction before the season is out :)
_____________________________________________
Now in:
Bowling Green (Bowling Green and Central Michigan have now split wins and lead the conference, but I'm giving the automatic to Bowling Green for now)
Southern Cal (bracket churn)
Southern Miss (the only team in Conference USA to beat Middle Tennessee this year)
North Dakota (back in solo first place in the Big Sky)
Cal State Northridge (now in solo first place in the Big West)
Now out:
Central Michigan (first conference loss of the season)
UTEP (their loss to North Texas on Wednesday was their first sub-200 RPI loss of the season)
Florida State (the Seminoles are at Iowa State-levels of freefall at this point. They are 3-8 in their last eleven games)
Montana (lost to sub-300 RPI Weber State, truly an awful loss)
Cal Poly (fallen into a 3-game slide)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(4) North Carolina
(5) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(10) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(7) St. John's
(9) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(7) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(9) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(6) Arizona State
(6) California
(11) Oregon State
(11) Southern Cal
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Kentucky
(5) Vanderbilt
(7) LSU
(8) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego*
(10) St. Mary's*
*I should just replace these two spots with "Boomer" and "Sooner".
The S-Factor today shows only four Big 12 teams in the tournament: Baylor, Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Given the conference's history one would speculate that this estimate is probably too low, and that surely Oklahoma and Iowa State would be offered invitations to the big dance also, like Charlie Creme says. I think this is half true. I believe that Iowa State is likely going to be out of the tournament, but Oklahoma will be in. Here's why.
Oklahoma had a big gutsy win against Texas on Pack the Place Pink Night at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman on Wednesday. As a Sooner fan, I'm still on an adrenaline high from the win. The Sooners had no business even being competitive, what with star guard and leading scorer Aaryn Ellenberg out with a concussion, and yet they pulled out the win in dramatic fashion, with Morgan Hook scoring the team's final three points and Texas not getting a fast break layup off in time before the final buzzer sounded.
On the same night as Oklahoma's big win, Iowa State went down to Waco and laid a turd, losing by 38 points. No one expected a Cyclones win, but the apathy with which they played was surprising.
Now Iowa State is at 6-8 in conference (tied with TCU) and Oklahoma is at 7-7. For Oklahoma, three out of the remaining four games are against the bottom four teams in the conference (the other one is at Baylor). It is very likely that Oklahoma will be 9-9 or 10-8 in conference play when the regular season concludes on March 3. With Iowa State, it's a completely different story. Three out of the remaining four games for Iowa State are against the top four teams in the conference (the other one is at Kansas, a team the Cyclones beat by only 3 points last weekend at home in Ames). It is very likely that Iowa State will be 7-11, and 8-10 is impossible unless they can beat either Texas, Oklahoma State or Baylor, teams the Cyclones are 0-3 against this year.
So let's say that Iowa State manages to achieve an 8-10 record for the 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Would that be enough to get them in the NCAA tournament?
In the 17 year history of the Big 12 Conference, there have been 21 teams that have finished with a record of one game under .500 (7-9 or 8-10). Only 8 of those teams have been offered tournament bids (38%). But, six out of the last seven teams that finished one game under .500 in the conference has made it to the tournament, the lone exception since 2006 being the 2012 snub of 8-10 Oklahoma State. That would be great for Iowa State then, right?
Well, the reason that the NCAA selection committee felt such generosity for mediocre Big 12 teams in years past is because that since 2008 the Big 12 has been the toughest conference in the country in terms of RPI. Before this season, one could make a strong argument that 8-10 in the Big 12 was equivalent to, let's say, 11-7 in the PAC-12; on any given night, a pretty good team could easily lose to an overperforming eleventh place team. (Imagine removing the bottom half of the ACC and replacing it with, like, six TCUs).
This year though, the Big 12 is fourth in RPI. Of the five teams that have gone one game under .500 in a season that the Big 12 has been ranked fourth or worse, zero of them have received tournament berths. Even getting to .500 is no automatic path to the Big Dance in years where the Big 12 is down: only one of the four teams that went .500 in conference play in a year that the Big 12 was fourth or worse in RPI has received a tournament bid (Oklahoma, 2005). And if Iowa State finishes 7-11? No team 2 games below .500 in conference has ever received an at-large tournament berth in the Big 12.
What about Oklahoma's chances this year? 9-9 in the Big 12 (or 8-8 in the old Big 12) has been good enough for a berth 59% of the time, though it's been 100% of the time since 2006 and only 30% of the time before then. And teams going one game above .500 (10-8 or 9-7) have missed out on the tournament only twice since 1997: once in 2006 when the selection committee decided to snub Marsha Sharp in her last season at Texas Tech for some reason, and once for Missouri in 2003 when the Big 12 was the fifth strongest conference. Both of those teams had 14 losses and RPI's over 60.
This is why I believe that barring a very surprising last four games, Iowa State is out and Oklahoma is in. Hopefully S-Factor will catch up to this prediction before the season is out :)
_____________________________________________
Now in:
Bowling Green (Bowling Green and Central Michigan have now split wins and lead the conference, but I'm giving the automatic to Bowling Green for now)
Southern Cal (bracket churn)
Southern Miss (the only team in Conference USA to beat Middle Tennessee this year)
North Dakota (back in solo first place in the Big Sky)
Cal State Northridge (now in solo first place in the Big West)
Now out:
Central Michigan (first conference loss of the season)
UTEP (their loss to North Texas on Wednesday was their first sub-200 RPI loss of the season)
Florida State (the Seminoles are at Iowa State-levels of freefall at this point. They are 3-8 in their last eleven games)
Montana (lost to sub-300 RPI Weber State, truly an awful loss)
Cal Poly (fallen into a 3-game slide)
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(3) Maryland
(4) North Carolina State
(4) North Carolina
(5) Syracuse
(10) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
(10) Rutgers
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Joseph's
Big East Teams:
(7) St. John's
(9) DePaul
Big Ten Teams:
(2) Penn State
(4) Iowa
(4) Purdue
(5) Nebraska
(7) Michigan State
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(3) West Virginia
(6) Oklahoma State
(9) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(6) Arizona State
(6) California
(11) Oregon State
(11) Southern Cal
SEC Teams:
(1) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(5) Kentucky
(5) Vanderbilt
(7) LSU
(8) Georgia
(11) Florida
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(7) BYU
(10) San Diego*
(10) St. Mary's*
*I should just replace these two spots with "Boomer" and "Sooner".
Friday, February 7, 2014
February 7 Update: An Already Outdated Bracket Prediction
Earlier this week I posted my first non-automated bracket prediction of the year on the Bracket Prediction page. I did it mostly so I could get a feel for the geographic placement of teams and how the first round host sites are going to work out. Last year all but one of the host schools (Ohio State) made it to the tournament, which added some structural complexity to the guesswork of bracket making. This year, at least at the time I made my picks this week, it was looking like there will be three missing host schools (UCLA, Washington, Toledo).
However there could be more open sites. Iowa State is going through a sustained and inexplicable suck-freefall. After demolishing Texas Tech on January 8th inside Hilton Coliseum in Ames, the Cyclones were at 14-0, ranked 11th in the AP poll, and were very much being talked about as a team that could beat Baylor for the Big 12 regular season championship. Since then the team has gone 2-6 and has fallen out of the polls. On Wednesday the Cyclones lost to TCU in Ames in another lackluster performance that had fans pleading for voodoo priests to remove the curse on their team. Because of that loss, for the first time all season, the S-Factor shows Iowa State out of the tournament.
Iowa State will host some first and second round games in March. Hopefully the Cyclones will bounce back, show some backbone and be able to drain some shots in some of the many tough Big 12 games they've got left on their schedule. Because if not, the Cyclones are going to be watching from the sidelines.
Now in:
St. Bonaventure
Marquette
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Now out:
Iowa State
Oklahoma :(
Iona
Youngstown State
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(2) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(7) North Carolina
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Bonaventure
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(11) Marquette
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(5) Iowa
(6) Purdue
(7) Nebraska
(8) Michigan State
(10) Michigan
(11) Indiana
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(4) West Virginia
(4) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(3) Arizona State
(9) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) LSU
(4) Vanderbilt
(5) Kentucky
(5) Texas A&M
(9) Florida
(10) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(6) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan
However there could be more open sites. Iowa State is going through a sustained and inexplicable suck-freefall. After demolishing Texas Tech on January 8th inside Hilton Coliseum in Ames, the Cyclones were at 14-0, ranked 11th in the AP poll, and were very much being talked about as a team that could beat Baylor for the Big 12 regular season championship. Since then the team has gone 2-6 and has fallen out of the polls. On Wednesday the Cyclones lost to TCU in Ames in another lackluster performance that had fans pleading for voodoo priests to remove the curse on their team. Because of that loss, for the first time all season, the S-Factor shows Iowa State out of the tournament.
Iowa State will host some first and second round games in March. Hopefully the Cyclones will bounce back, show some backbone and be able to drain some shots in some of the many tough Big 12 games they've got left on their schedule. Because if not, the Cyclones are going to be watching from the sidelines.
Now in:
St. Bonaventure
Marquette
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Now out:
Iowa State
Oklahoma :(
Iona
Youngstown State
ACC Teams:
(1) Notre Dame
(1) Duke
(2) North Carolina State
(4) Maryland
(5) Syracuse
(7) North Carolina
(11) Georgia Tech
AAC Teams:
(1) Connecticut
(2) Louisville
Atlantic 10 Teams:
(8) Dayton
(9) St. Bonaventure
Big East Teams:
(6) St. John's
(8) DePaul
(11) Marquette
Big Ten Teams:
(3) Penn State
(5) Iowa
(6) Purdue
(7) Nebraska
(8) Michigan State
(10) Michigan
(11) Indiana
Big 12 Teams:
(3) Baylor
(4) West Virginia
(4) Oklahoma State
(7) Texas
PAC 12 Teams:
(1) Stanford
(3) Arizona State
(9) California
(10) USC
SEC Teams:
(2) South Carolina
(2) Tennessee
(3) LSU
(4) Vanderbilt
(5) Kentucky
(5) Texas A&M
(9) Florida
(10) Georgia
West Coast Teams:
(6) Gonzaga
(6) St. Mary's
(10) San Diego
MAC Teams:
(9) Bowling Green
(11) Central Michigan
Monday, February 18, 2013
Sorting Out the Big 12
The Big 12 is a difficult problem to tackle from a tournament selection standpoint. Baylor is obviously the best team in the league and has sewn up the regular season. No one else in the league can beat them. TCU is pretty obviously the worst team in the conference, though Kansas State and Texas are certainly not tournament bound either. This leaves six teams in the middle who keep failing to differentiate themselves.
It seemed like there was a little bit of distance between the top and the bottom of the pack before this last week. The top teams were Iowa State and Oklahoma, the bottom teams were West Virginia and Kansas, and the middle was occupied by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This stratification ended this week. The top teams went 1-3, the bottom teams went 3-1, and the middle teams went 3-1. So now these six teams all have between 5 and 7 losses in conference.
The problem lies in tournament selection. It is not unprecedented for the Big 12 to get 7 teams into the tournament. It is unprecedented for a conference with only ten teams to get 7 teams into the tournament. There's no rule against having 70% of a conference attend the big dance though, and the tournament selection committee may have a very difficult time justifying excluding one or two teams given the similar resumes of all six.
Assuming all six lose matchups against each other on the road (and also Baylor wherever) and win all matchups against each other at home (and also TCU, Texas and Kansas State wherever), the final standings in the Big 12 will look like this:
1. Baylor (18-0)
2. Iowa State (13-5)
3. Texas Tech (12-6)
4. Kansas (10-8)
4. West Virginia (10-8)
4. Oklahoma (10-8)
4. Oklahoma State (10-8)
8. Kansas State (4-14)
9. Texas (3-15)
10. TCU (0-18)
Given the ease of remaining schedule, Iowa State has the inside track to second place in the conference, but nothing is certain: the Cyclones just lost at Hilton to West Virginia.
____
Now in:
Iowa
Army
Oral Roberts
Now out:
Duquesne
Navy
Sam Houston St.
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
It seemed like there was a little bit of distance between the top and the bottom of the pack before this last week. The top teams were Iowa State and Oklahoma, the bottom teams were West Virginia and Kansas, and the middle was occupied by Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This stratification ended this week. The top teams went 1-3, the bottom teams went 3-1, and the middle teams went 3-1. So now these six teams all have between 5 and 7 losses in conference.
The problem lies in tournament selection. It is not unprecedented for the Big 12 to get 7 teams into the tournament. It is unprecedented for a conference with only ten teams to get 7 teams into the tournament. There's no rule against having 70% of a conference attend the big dance though, and the tournament selection committee may have a very difficult time justifying excluding one or two teams given the similar resumes of all six.
Assuming all six lose matchups against each other on the road (and also Baylor wherever) and win all matchups against each other at home (and also TCU, Texas and Kansas State wherever), the final standings in the Big 12 will look like this:
1. Baylor (18-0)
2. Iowa State (13-5)
3. Texas Tech (12-6)
4. Kansas (10-8)
4. West Virginia (10-8)
4. Oklahoma (10-8)
4. Oklahoma State (10-8)
8. Kansas State (4-14)
9. Texas (3-15)
10. TCU (0-18)
Given the ease of remaining schedule, Iowa State has the inside track to second place in the conference, but nothing is certain: the Cyclones just lost at Hilton to West Virginia.
____
Now in:
Iowa
Army
Oral Roberts
Now out:
Duquesne
Navy
Sam Houston St.
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 7
Big East: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
Pac 12: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
West Coast: 2
Thursday, February 17, 2011
The Atlantic 10's Big Five; Plus Weird Big 12 Numbers
As I mentioned back in January, the Atlantic 10 is having a great year. Five teams have garnered predicted at-large bids in various bracket predictions: Xavier (of course), Temple, Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton. As of Tuesday, the College Women's Hoops S-Factor was predicting 4 Atlantic 10 teams would make the tournament.
But then Charlotte lost on Wednesday night against LaSalle and Duquesne lost a home game against St. Joseph's. It was not an uncharacteristic loss for Duquesne, but for Charlotte, it was their first conference loss against a team outside of the big five in the A10.
But it also pushed both Duquesne and Charlotte out of the top 50 in RPI. This meant that Temple, a team that is still undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference and is on a 13-game winning streak, lost two of their three top 50 wins, and so lost ground in the S-Factor rankings. But if Temple wins every game except for their regular season finale against Xavier, there is no chance they will not be rewarded with an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee.
It's interesting to look at the big five's record against each other.
Xavier: 3-0 with Duquesne and Temple left
Temple: 2-0 with Dayton and Xavier left
Duquesne: 1-1 with Xavier and Charlotte left
Charlotte: 1-2 with Duquesne left
Dayton: 0-4 with Temple left
That big doughnut in the win column for Dayton against the other big five teams will surely weigh heavily on the minds of the selection committee.
____________________________
Weirdness in the S-Factor in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech last night, and plummetted outside of the S-Factor's predicted at-large bids, while Texas Tech rose up 13 spots. Meanwhile, Kansas State got a routine win over Colorado and is now being shown at the cusp of the at-large bids.
But the S-Factor is more of a prediction of the tournament if the season ended right now, and it does not take into account the future schedule and predicted future wins. Texas Tech closes its regular season with 4 top 26 (RPI) games out of 5, while Iowa State will feast upon Big 12 north teams, and gets Texas at home. And conference record means a lot in the Big 12, the most difficult of all conferences from top to bottom. (Although probably not enough for Kansas State, who may be left to a WNIT bid if they go 9-7 in conference.)
Now in: Middle Tennessee State, USC, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Now out: UA Little Rock, Iowa State, Charlotte, Temple, Syracuse
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
But then Charlotte lost on Wednesday night against LaSalle and Duquesne lost a home game against St. Joseph's. It was not an uncharacteristic loss for Duquesne, but for Charlotte, it was their first conference loss against a team outside of the big five in the A10.
But it also pushed both Duquesne and Charlotte out of the top 50 in RPI. This meant that Temple, a team that is still undefeated in the Atlantic 10 conference and is on a 13-game winning streak, lost two of their three top 50 wins, and so lost ground in the S-Factor rankings. But if Temple wins every game except for their regular season finale against Xavier, there is no chance they will not be rewarded with an at-large bid from the NCAA selection committee.
It's interesting to look at the big five's record against each other.
Xavier: 3-0 with Duquesne and Temple left
Temple: 2-0 with Dayton and Xavier left
Duquesne: 1-1 with Xavier and Charlotte left
Charlotte: 1-2 with Duquesne left
Dayton: 0-4 with Temple left
That big doughnut in the win column for Dayton against the other big five teams will surely weigh heavily on the minds of the selection committee.
____________________________
Weirdness in the S-Factor in the Big 12 conference. Iowa State lost to Texas Tech last night, and plummetted outside of the S-Factor's predicted at-large bids, while Texas Tech rose up 13 spots. Meanwhile, Kansas State got a routine win over Colorado and is now being shown at the cusp of the at-large bids.
But the S-Factor is more of a prediction of the tournament if the season ended right now, and it does not take into account the future schedule and predicted future wins. Texas Tech closes its regular season with 4 top 26 (RPI) games out of 5, while Iowa State will feast upon Big 12 north teams, and gets Texas at home. And conference record means a lot in the Big 12, the most difficult of all conferences from top to bottom. (Although probably not enough for Kansas State, who may be left to a WNIT bid if they go 9-7 in conference.)
Now in: Middle Tennessee State, USC, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State
Now out: UA Little Rock, Iowa State, Charlotte, Temple, Syracuse
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Iowa State: Road Worriers
Iowa State is in trouble. The Cyclones' only top-50 RPI win so far this year was against Michigan on December 5th at home. Iowa State has now lost overtime games against Colorado and Kansas, teams that are certainly not in the top half of the Big 12 conference.
Worst of all, their road record is 2-5 (while their home record remains an impressive 11-1).
Iowa State is currently 4-5 in the conference at a time when most would have expected them to be at least 6-3.
But the good news is that Iowa State doesn't have to play Texas A&M, Baylor, or Oklahoma again in the regular season!
Now in: Boston College, Vanderbilt,
Now out: Syracuse, Kansas State
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Worst of all, their road record is 2-5 (while their home record remains an impressive 11-1).
Iowa State is currently 4-5 in the conference at a time when most would have expected them to be at least 6-3.
But the good news is that Iowa State doesn't have to play Texas A&M, Baylor, or Oklahoma again in the regular season!
Now in: Boston College, Vanderbilt,
Now out: Syracuse, Kansas State
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 9
Big Ten: 8
ACC: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Monday, January 10, 2011
Slouching Tigers, Rising Techsters
The first conference games for the Big 12 occured this past weekend, a very active weekend for almost every team. Iowa State started the conference season with arguably their hardest game, Baylor at Waco; the Cyclones lost. Texas failed to secure a win after leading Missouri by 12 points with under three minutes to go. And Texas Tech scored an important win over Kansas at Lawrence, propelling the Red Raiders up to a dubiously high 5-seed in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.
One unusual game that had ramifications for many teams was on Thursday when LSU lost to South Carolina. The loss pushed the Tigers down out of the S-Factor-predicted at-large bids, but it also knocked LSU out of the top 50 in RPI.
Because of this, several teams that scored victories against LSU suddenly had a weaker strength of schedule. Tulane, most precipitously, dropped 28 spots in the S-Factor just because of the LSU loss (even though Tulane now has won 6 games in a row and is still slated in the S-Factor to get the automatic bid from Conference USA).
Ohio State and Northwestern, teams that have beaten LSU this year, dropped 15 spots and 5 spots respectively (although Ohio State's loss to Iowa on Saturday certainly doesn't help matters).
The biggest gainer from LSU's loss? Louisiana Tech. LSU had beaten the Lady Techsters earlier this year. It seems counterintuitive that an opponent that beat your team earlier in the year and now has a lower RPI than before can actually boost your team's ranking. But now instead of winning 2 out of 4 against top 50 teams, Louisiana Tech has won 2 out of 3. It's enough of a difference to lift Louisiana Tech 20 spots in the S-Factor. Sometimes the numbers are just crazy in Mid-Majoropolis.
Now in: California, Purdue, St. John's
Now out: LSU, Arizona, Texas
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
One unusual game that had ramifications for many teams was on Thursday when LSU lost to South Carolina. The loss pushed the Tigers down out of the S-Factor-predicted at-large bids, but it also knocked LSU out of the top 50 in RPI.
Because of this, several teams that scored victories against LSU suddenly had a weaker strength of schedule. Tulane, most precipitously, dropped 28 spots in the S-Factor just because of the LSU loss (even though Tulane now has won 6 games in a row and is still slated in the S-Factor to get the automatic bid from Conference USA).
Ohio State and Northwestern, teams that have beaten LSU this year, dropped 15 spots and 5 spots respectively (although Ohio State's loss to Iowa on Saturday certainly doesn't help matters).
The biggest gainer from LSU's loss? Louisiana Tech. LSU had beaten the Lady Techsters earlier this year. It seems counterintuitive that an opponent that beat your team earlier in the year and now has a lower RPI than before can actually boost your team's ranking. But now instead of winning 2 out of 4 against top 50 teams, Louisiana Tech has won 2 out of 3. It's enough of a difference to lift Louisiana Tech 20 spots in the S-Factor. Sometimes the numbers are just crazy in Mid-Majoropolis.
Now in: California, Purdue, St. John's
Now out: LSU, Arizona, Texas
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
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