The bona fide bracket predictions were developed by the following people:
- Charlie Creme - ESPN.com
- Matt Olson - Omnirankings.com
- CSM Staff - CollegeSportsMadness.com
- Matt5762 - boards.rebkell.net
- Whoever is in charge of RealTimeRPI.com's bracket prediction
- Steven Bell - this site
These are the 25 ranked lists I included in this analysis.
- S-Factor (current version)
- Old S-Factor (pre-2015 version)
- Charlie Creme without procedural bumps -ESPN.com
- D1SN "poll" - William Lansdale -D1sportsnet.com
- AP poll
- Coaches' poll
- SpaceJunkie - boards.rebkell.net
- RealTimeRPI RPI - realtimerpi.com
- RealTimeRPI power - realtimerpi.com
- Sagarin Rating - http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
- Sagarin GoldenMean
- Sagarin Predictor
- Sagarin Recent
- Massey Rating - masseyratings.com
- Massey Power Rating
- Omni Rankings - omnirankings.com
- Warren Nolan Elo Chess
- Warren Nolan's NPI - http://warrennolan.com/basketballw/2015/npi
- Sonny Moore's Computer Power Ratings - http://www.sonnymoorepowerratings.com
- Hero Sports' Bennett Rank - http://herosports.com/colleges/sports/d1-womens-basketball
- Georgia Tech - LRMC rankings - Bayesian - http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmcW/
- Georgia Tech - LRMC rankings - Classic
- Georgia Tech - LRMC rankings - LRMC(0)
- NCAA Win-Loss percentage
- NCAA RPI
On each of these ranked lists, I found the 64 teams that would have been predicted by said list - 32 at-large bids and 32 automatic bids. Some of these lists produce rankings similar to how the selection committee examines teams, and some produce wild and unrealistic lists. These outlier lists (Warren Nolan Elo Chess, NPI, W-L% and the polls, which don't produce full lists) were not included when I found the average predicted seed for each team.
In the list below, the larger the magnitude of the number means the larger difference between the team's seed as predicted by these 31 ranked lists and brackets and the team's actual seed in the tournament this year. Negative numbers indicate teams seeded below their predicted seeding, and positive numbers indicate teams seeded above their predicted seeding.
|
Deviation from average
|
Average predicted seed
|
Actual seed
|
Team
|
|
-2.63
|
8.38
|
(11)
|
Princeton
|
|
-2.47
|
8.53
|
(11)
|
Purdue
|
|
-2.31
|
10.69
|
(13)
|
Army
|
|
-2.16
|
8.84
|
(11)
|
Colorado St.
|
|
-2.07
|
8.93
|
(11)
|
James Madison
|
|
-1.82
|
14.18
|
(16)
|
Idaho
|
|
-1.80
|
7.20
|
(9)
|
Duquesne
|
|
-1.72
|
8.28
|
(10)
|
Green Bay
|
|
-1.69
|
10.31
|
(12)
|
Albany
|
|
-1.50
|
13.50
|
(15)
|
New Mexico St.
|
|
-1.19
|
14.81
|
(16)
|
Jacksonville
|
|
-0.96
|
9.04
|
(10)
|
Missouri
|
|
-0.86
|
11.14
|
(12)
|
So. Dakota St.
|
|
-0.58
|
5.42
|
(6)
|
DePaul
|
|
-0.57
|
13.43
|
(14)
|
Cent. Arkansas
|
|
-0.48
|
3.52
|
(4)
|
Stanford
|
|
-0.46
|
14.54
|
(15)
|
Iona
|
|
-0.38
|
6.62
|
(7)
|
Washington
|
|
-0.29
|
1.71
|
(2)
|
Maryland
|
|
-0.28
|
6.72
|
(7)
|
Tennessee
|
|
-0.26
|
4.74
|
(5)
|
Florida St.
|
|
-0.18
|
9.82
|
(10)
|
St. Bonaventure
|
|
-0.14
|
9.86
|
(10)
|
Pennsylvania
|
|
-0.07
|
11.93
|
(12)
|
Mid. Tenn.
|
|
-0.03
|
1.97
|
(2)
|
Oregon St.
|
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
(1)
|
Baylor
|
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
(1)
|
Notre Dame
|
|
0.00
|
7.00
|
(7)
|
BYU
|
|
0.00
|
12.00
|
(12)
|
Chattanooga
|
|
0.00
|
14.00
|
(14)
|
Hawaii
|
|
0.00
|
16.00
|
(16)
|
Robert Morris
|
|
0.00
|
16.00
|
(16)
|
NC A&T
|
|
0.03
|
3.03
|
(3)
|
Ohio St.
|
|
0.03
|
6.03
|
(6)
|
West Virginia
|
|
0.06
|
1.06
|
(1)
|
Connecticut
|
|
0.07
|
15.07
|
(15)
|
Troy
|
|
0.07
|
6.07
|
(6)
|
Oklahoma
|
|
0.08
|
8.08
|
(8)
|
Georgia
|
|
0.13
|
5.13
|
(5)
|
Mississippi St.
|
|
0.14
|
13.14
|
(13)
|
Missouri St.
|
|
0.18
|
13.18
|
(13)
|
San Francisco
|
|
0.29
|
4.29
|
(4)
|
Syracuse
|
|
0.29
|
1.29
|
(1)
|
South Carolina
|
|
0.30
|
8.30
|
(8)
|
Geo. Wash.
|
|
0.32
|
2.32
|
(2)
|
Texas
|
|
0.42
|
3.42
|
(3)
|
Louisville
|
|
0.48
|
9.48
|
(9)
|
Indiana
|
|
0.50
|
6.50
|
(6)
|
South Florida
|
|
0.57
|
14.57
|
(14)
|
Buffalo
|
|
0.61
|
13.61
|
(13)
|
Belmont
|
|
0.65
|
3.65
|
(3)
|
UCLA
|
|
0.80
|
9.80
|
(9)
|
Kansas St.
|
|
0.89
|
14.89
|
(14)
|
UNC Asheville
|
|
0.96
|
15.96
|
(15)
|
Alabama St.
|
|
0.97
|
4.97
|
(4)
|
Michigan St.
|
|
1.04
|
8.04
|
(7)
|
Oklahoma St.
|
|
1.13
|
10.13
|
(9)
|
Auburn
|
|
1.13
|
4.13
|
(3)
|
Kentucky
|
|
1.55
|
3.55
|
(2)
|
Arizona St.
|
|
1.63
|
9.63
|
(8)
|
St. John's
|
|
1.71
|
6.71
|
(5)
|
Miami (FL)
|
|
1.83
|
5.83
|
(4)
|
Texas A&M
|
|
1.84
|
9.84
|
(8)
|
Seton Hall
|
|
2.43
|
7.43
|
(5)
|
Florida
|
For the second year in a row, the Most Screwed Team is Princeton. However, the magnitude is much smaller this year, and there are many (Charlie Creme included) who believe that Princeton is extremely lucky to receive a bid (the Ivy League's first at-large ever) at all. Second place Purdue was also on the bubble. Third place Army, which averaged a seed of 10.69, was given a 13 seed and might be considered Pretty Screwed Indeed. Florida, whose 5-seed was 2.43 seeds better than its average, is considered by this method to be the luckiest team. Overall though, the selection committee really conformed to expectations for the most part.
However, this isn't the only method by which one can determine the Most Screwed Team. By finding the list of 32 most commonly chosen at-large teams in the tournament and comparing it to the list of the 32 actually selected at-large teams, we can find the People's Choice Award for the Most Screwed Team. This year there were three teams that would have been selected by a plurality of ranked lists that did not get into the tournament: Rutgers, Duke and Oregon.
|
Rank
|
no. of pred.
|
% of pred.
|
Actual seed
|
Team
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(2)
|
Texas
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(2)
|
Arizona St.
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(3)
|
UCLA
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(3)
|
Louisville
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(3)
|
Kentucky
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(3)
|
Ohio St.
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(4)
|
Michigan St.
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(4)
|
Stanford
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(4)
|
Syracuse
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(5)
|
Mississippi St.
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(5)
|
Florida St.
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(5)
|
Miami (FL)
|
|
1
|
31
|
100%
|
(6)
|
DePaul
|
|
14
|
30
|
97%
|
(5)
|
Florida
|
|
14
|
30
|
97%
|
(6)
|
South Florida
|
|
14
|
30
|
97%
|
(6)
|
West Virginia
|
|
17
|
29
|
94%
|
(4)
|
Texas A&M
|
|
18
|
27
|
87%
|
(6)
|
Oklahoma
|
|
19
|
26
|
84%
|
(7)
|
Washington
|
|
19
|
26
|
84%
|
(8)
|
Georgia
|
|
21
|
25
|
81%
|
(7)
|
Oklahoma St.
|
|
21
|
25
|
81%
|
(7)
|
Tennessee
|
|
21
|
25
|
81%
|
(10)
|
Missouri
|
|
24
|
24
|
77%
|
(11)
|
Princeton
|
|
25
|
23
|
74%
|
(9)
|
Indiana
|
|
26
|
20
|
65%
|
(7)
|
BYU
|
|
26
|
20
|
65%
|
(9)
|
Duquesne
|
|
28
|
19
|
61%
|
(8)
|
Seton Hall
|
|
28
|
19
|
61%
|
(11)
|
Purdue
|
|
30
|
14
|
45%
|
Rutgers
|
|
|
31
|
13
|
42%
|
Duke
|
|
|
32
|
12
|
39%
|
|
Oregon
|
|
33
|
11
|
35%
|
(10)
|
St. Bonaventure
|
|
34
|
9
|
29%
|
USC
|
|
|
35
|
8
|
26%
|
(9)
|
Auburn
|
|
35
|
8
|
26%
|
Fla. Gulf Coast
|
|
|
35
|
8
|
26%
|
Arkansas St.
|
|
|
38
|
7
|
23%
|
N.C. State
|
|
|
38
|
7
|
23%
|
UTEP
|
|
|
38
|
7
|
23%
|
W. Kentucky
|
|
|
41
|
6
|
19%
|
Saint Louis
|
|
|
41
|
6
|
19%
|
Michigan
|
|
|
41
|
6
|
19%
|
St. Mary's
|
|
|
44
|
5
|
16%
|
(9)
|
Kansas St.
|
|
44
|
5
|
16%
|
Iowa
|
|
|
44
|
5
|
16%
|
Temple
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
13%
|
Maine
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
13%
|
Ohio
|
|
|
47
|
4
|
13%
|
Northwestern
|
|
|
50
|
3
|
10%
|
South Dakota
|
|
|
50
|
3
|
10%
|
UC Riverside
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
6%
|
VCU
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
6%
|
Quinnipiac
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
6%
|
San Diego
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
6%
|
Georgia Tech
|
|
|
56
|
1
|
3%
|
Tulane
|
|
|
56
|
1
|
3%
|
Bucknell
|
|
|
56
|
1
|
3%
|
Long Beach St.
|
The teams left off the People's Choice list that actually did make it were St. Bonaventure, Auburn, and (selected by only 5 predictions) Kansas State. By this method, one could say that Kansas State's selection was as likely as if Iowa or Temple got in, and slightly less likely than St. Mary's, Michigan or Saint Louis.
