Bracketology-ology: a Report Card

Selection Monday revealed that the selection committee this year was a little bit more closely aligned with RPI than in years past. Unlike last year's at-large picks of UA Little Rock and UW Green Bay (two teams that received automatic bids this year), there weren't any teams selected that one could really argue were long shots. The team with the lowest RPI selected for an at-large bid was Purdue (49).

So how did the S-Factor stack up this year to the experts?

The S-Factor missed only three teams this year (Dayton, Middle Tennessee, Vanderbilt), which isn't too bad. But of course total number of teams in the tournament is only part of the mission of the S-Factor.

The S-Factor was better at predicting seeds than any other predictor, human or computer. Charlie Creme, ESPN's legendary bracketologist, correctly predicted the seeds of 31 teams, but the S-Factor did him one better with 32.

Other metrics of comparison are shown in the tables below. There were 21 predictions that I could find this year. I assigned a point total to each prediction corresponding to its ranking for each category. The point system works similar to the AP poll: the first place prediction gets 21 points, the second gets 20, and so on. These points were then tallied to determine an overall bracketology champion, shown at the end of this post.

The 21 bracket predictions are as follows:

1. Rating Percentage Index. Compiled by Jerry Palm.
2. Jeff Sagarin ratings; a synthesis of the ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS models. Compiled by Jim Sukup.
3. Sagarin ELO CHESS (see above)
4. Sagarin PURE POINTS PREDICTOR (see above)
5. Kenneth Massey's ratings
6. Stephen Jens
7. Sonny Moore's computer power rankings
8. Cody Kirkpatrick's ratings using David Wilson's method (talismanred.com)
9. Sportheory
10. RealTimeRPI.com - RPI rankings (which differ from Palm's)
11. RealTimeRPI.com - power rankings
12. pilight's points only - pilight's field of 64 model without the exceptions, such as for teams that are sub .500 in conference
13. Warren Nolan's power index
14. The S-Factor

Actual bracket predictions:

15. Charlie Creme
16. Jerry Palm
17. pilight's field of 64
18. RealTimeRPI's bracket
19. my bracket prediction

Polls - including the additional votes

20. AP poll
21. ESPN Coaches poll



Metric 1: predicted teams that actually made the tournament:

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	RealTime RPI (RPI)	63	98.4%	21
2	College Women's Hoops official bracket	62	96.9%	20
2	Jerry Palm	62	96.9%	20
2	RPI (Palm)	62	96.9%	20
5	Charlie Crème	61	95.3%	17
5	RealTime RPI bracket	61	95.3%	17
5	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	61	95.3%	17
5	Ken Massey	61	95.3%	17
5	pilight points only	61	95.3%	17
10	pilight's field of 64	60	93.8%	12
10	Sagarin	60	93.8%	12
10	Sagarin ELO Chess	60	93.8%	12
10	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	60	93.8%	12
14	Stephen Jens	59	92.2%	8
14	Sonny Moore	59	92.2%	8
14	Sportheory	59	92.2%	8
17	RealTime RPI (Power)	58	90.6%	5
17	Sagarin Pure Points	58	90.6%	5
19	Warren Nolan	55	85.9%	3
na	AP poll	na	na	0
na	ESPN/Coaches poll	na	na	0

Metric 2: predicted teams correctly seeded (entire field)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	32	50.0%	21
2	Charlie Crème	31	48.4%	20
3	College Women's Hoops official bracket	29	45.3%	19
3	Sagarin	29	45.3%	19
5	Jerry Palm	28	43.8%	17
5	Ken Massey	28	43.8%	17
5	Sagarin ELO Chess	28	43.8%	17
5	Stephen Jens	28	43.8%	17
9	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	27	42.2%	13
10	RealTime RPI (RPI)	25	39.1%	12
10	RPI (Palm)	25	39.1%	12
12	pilight points only	24	37.5%	10
13	Sportheory	23	35.9%	9
14	Sonny Moore	21	32.8%	8
15	Sagarin Pure Points	19	29.7%	7
16	pilight's field of 64	18	28.1%	6
17	ESPN/Coaches poll	15	23.4%	5
17	RealTime RPI bracket	15	23.4%	5
17	RealTime RPI (Power)	15	23.4%	5
20	AP poll	12	18.8%	2
20	Warren Nolan	12	18.8%	2

Metric 3: predicted teams seeded within one seed of actual result (entire field)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	56	87.5%	21
2	Charlie Crème	54	84.4%	20
3	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	53	82.8%	19
4	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	51	79.7%	18
4	Sagarin ELO Chess	51	79.7%	18
6	Jerry Palm	50	78.1%	16
7	Ken Massey	46	71.9%	15
7	RPI (Palm)	46	71.9%	15
9	Sagarin	45	70.3%	13
9	RealTime RPI (RPI)	45	70.3%	13
9	RealTime RPI bracket	45	70.3%	13
12	Sportheory	43	67.2%	10
12	Sagarin Pure Points	43	67.2%	10
14	pilight points only	41	64.1%	8
14	pilight's field of 64	41	64.1%	8
16	Stephen Jens	39	60.9%	6
17	Sonny Moore	36	56.3%	5
18	RealTime RPI (Power)	31	48.4%	4
19	AP poll	29	45.3%	3
20	Warren Nolan	27	42.2%	2
21	ESPN/Coaches poll	22	34.4%	1

Metric 4: predicted teams correctly seeded (top 12 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	Charlie Crème	26	54.2%	21
2	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	23	47.9%	20
2	College Women's Hoops official bracket	23	47.9%	20
4	Sagarin	22	45.8%	18
4	Ken Massey	22	45.8%	18
6	Jerry Palm	21	43.8%	16
6	Sagarin ELO Chess	21	43.8%	16
6	Stephen Jens	21	43.8%	16
6	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	21	43.8%	16
10	RPI (Palm)	19	39.6%	12
11	RealTime RPI (RPI)	18	37.5%	11
11	pilight points only	18	37.5%	11
13	Sportheory	17	35.4%	9
14	ESPN/Coaches poll	15	31.3%	8
15	Sonny Moore	14	29.2%	7
16	Sagarin Pure Points	13	27.1%	6
17	pilight's field of 64	12	25.0%	5
17	AP poll	12	25.0%	5
19	RealTime RPI bracket	11	22.9%	3
19	RealTime RPI (Power)	11	22.9%	3
21	Warren Nolan	8	16.7%	1

Metric 5: Predicted teams within one seed of actual result (top 12 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	42	87.5%	21
2	Charlie Crème	40	83.3%	20
2	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	40	83.3%	20
4	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	38	79.2%	18
4	Sagarin ELO Chess	38	79.2%	18
6	Jerry Palm	36	75.0%	16
7	Sagarin	33	68.8%	15
7	Ken Massey	33	68.8%	15
7	RPI (Palm)	33	68.8%	15
7	RealTime RPI (RPI)	33	68.8%	15
7	RealTime RPI bracket	33	68.8%	15
12	Sportheory	32	66.7%	10
13	pilight points only	31	64.6%	9
13	pilight's field of 64	31	64.6%	9
15	Sagarin Pure Points	30	62.5%	7
16	AP poll	29	60.4%	6
17	Stephen Jens	28	58.3%	5
18	Sonny Moore	27	56.3%	4
19	ESPN/Coaches poll	22	45.8%	3
20	RealTime RPI (Power)	19	39.6%	2
21	Warren Nolan	18	37.5%	1

Metric 6: predicted teams correctly seeded (top 6 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	17	70.8%	21
1	Charlie Crème	17	70.8%	21
3	Ken Massey	16	66.7%	19
3	Stephen Jens	16	66.7%	19
5	Sagarin	15	62.5%	17
5	RPI (Palm)	15	62.5%	17
7	Sagarin ELO Chess	14	58.3%	15
7	Jerry Palm	14	58.3%	15
9	ESPN/Coaches poll	13	54.2%	13
10	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	12	50.0%	12
10	Sonny Moore	12	50.0%	12
12	RealTime RPI (RPI)	11	45.8%	10
12	Sportheory	11	45.8%	10
12	AP poll	11	45.8%	10
15	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	10	41.7%	7
15	pilight points only	10	41.7%	7
15	pilight's field of 64	10	41.7%	7
15	RealTime RPI (Power)	10	41.7%	7
19	RealTime RPI bracket	8	33.3%	3
19	Sagarin Pure Points	8	33.3%	3
21	Warren Nolan	7	29.2%	1

Metric 7: predicted teams seeded within one seed of actual result (top 6 seeds)

Rank		No.	Pct.	pts.
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	24	100.0%	21
1	Charlie Crème	24	100.0%	21
3	Sagarin ELO Chess	23	95.8%	19
3	Jerry Palm	23	95.8%	19
3	AP poll	23	95.8%	19
6	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	22	91.7%	16
6	RealTime RPI (RPI)	22	91.7%	16
6	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	22	91.7%	16
9	RPI (Palm)	21	87.5%	13
9	Sportheory	21	87.5%	13
11	pilight points only	20	83.3%	11
11	pilight's field of 64	20	83.3%	11
11	RealTime RPI bracket	20	83.3%	11
14	Ken Massey	19	79.2%	8
14	Sagarin	19	79.2%	8
16	Stephen Jens	18	75.0%	6
16	ESPN/Coaches poll	18	75.0%	6
18	RealTime RPI (Power)	17	70.8%	4
18	Sagarin Pure Points	17	70.8%	4
20	Sonny Moore	16	66.7%	2
21	Warren Nolan	14	58.3%	1

______________________________

The overall winner? My bracket guess! Bested Charlie Creme by 3 points.

And once again, the College Women's Hoops S-Factor beats all other computer predictions.

Bracketology-ology Final Summary

rank	metric no.--->	1	2	3	4	5	6	7		sum of pts
1	College Women's Hoops official bracket	20	19	21	20	21	21	21		143
2	Charlie Crème	17	20	20	21	20	21	21		140
3	College Women's Hoops S-Factor	17	21	18	20	18	12	16		122
4	Jerry Palm	20	17	16	16	16	15	19		119
5	Sagarin ELO Chess	12	17	18	16	18	15	19		115
6	Ken Massey	17	17	15	18	15	19	8		109
7	RPI (Palm)	20	12	15	12	15	17	13		104
8	Cody Kirkpatrick (talismanred.com)	12	13	19	16	20	7	16		103
9	Sagarin	12	19	13	18	15	17	8		102
10	RealTime RPI (RPI)	21	12	13	11	15	10	16		98
11	Stephen Jens	8	17	6	16	5	19	6		77
12	pilight points only	17	10	8	11	9	7	11		73
13	Sportheory	8	9	10	9	10	10	13		69
14	RealTime RPI bracket	17	5	13	3	15	3	11		67
15	pilight's field of 64	12	6	8	5	9	7	11		58
16	Sonny Moore	8	8	5	7	4	12	2		46
17	AP poll	0	2	3	5	6	10	19		45
18	Sagarin Pure Points	5	7	10	6	7	3	4		42
19	ESPN/Coaches poll	0	5	1	8	3	13	6		36
20	RealTime RPI (Power)	5	5	4	3	2	7	4		30
21	Warren Nolan	3	2	2	1	1	1	1		11

Final 2011 S-Factor

The final College Women's Hoops S-Factor is now up. I can assure you it will not be 64 for 64 this year. Old Dominion leaped back up into the predicted at-large bids due to James Madison poking into the top 25 of RPI rankings, and thus giving ODU another top 25 win, which was just enough to give them the second-to-last at-large spot in the S-Factor despite their abyssmal RPI (70th).

The most likely team to replace them will be Vanderbilt. The Commodores never quite impressed this season, but their 30th RPI combined with the fact that they went 10-6 in the SEC conference ought to be enough to assure them a spot in the field.

There will likely be a few other replacements between the S-Factor's predicted brackets and the actual brackets to be announced tonight, but Old Dominion-for-Vanderbilt is one I'm 99.9% positive about.

________________

Now in: Old Dominion
Now out: Arizona

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
WAC: 2
Colonial: 2

Final Bracket Guess

The final bracket guess is up on the Bracket Prediction page.

Penultimate S-Factor

The penultimate College Women's Hoops S-Factor is up. It includes all the correct automatic bids and only lacks the final RPI numbers for the season.

____________________

Now in: Prairie View A&M, Fresno State, Hartford, Montana, Gardner Webb, Utah, UC Davis, Central Florida, Bowling Green
Now out: Southern U, Boston U, Northern Colorado, Cal Poly, Liberty, BYU, Toledo, TCU, Old Dominion

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Conference USA: 2
WAC: 2

March 11 Bracket Prediction

There's a new bracket prediction up. It takes into account Friday afternoon's upsets of Toledo, BYU and Houston.

The final bracket prediction will probably be up on Monday morning.

Pac 10 Tournament Chances

The Pac 10 tournament is down to the semifinals. Arizona will face top seeded Stanford, while California will face second seeded UCLA. As for the Pac 10's third and fifth seeds, they lost last night. Layshia Clarendon of California had 46% of her teams points (22) as the Bears beat third-seeded Arizona State 48-43. Senior Ify Ibekwe got a double-double and was one of three Wildcats to score in double figures as Arizona took down USC 72-61.

The rest of the Pac 10's tournament prospects break down like this. Most bracketologists put Stanford in the tournament as a No. 1 seed and UCLA in as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.

The third place finisher in the regular season, Arizona State, has looked really bad recently. But it would be hard to deny a team that finished 11-7 in conference with an RPI of 39 and a victory over DePaul earlier in the season, despite the fact that in three of their last five games they have been unable to score more than 50 points.

USC has had a relatively high RPI for most of the season, but the glory days of 2010 led to a disappointing conference season in 2011. And 10-8 in the Pac 10 is about equivalent to 7-9 in the Big 12. They needed to at least get to the semis to have a decent shot at the NCAA Tournament.

California, at 7-11 in conference, lost way too many games that they should have won, and so an at-large bid is probably not in their future.

Three teams may be all the Pac 10 gets. But the College Women's Hoops S-Factor now puts Arizona in the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid for the first time since January 6, 63 days ago! (Check the chart out). No other team with a predicted at-large bid even comes close in terms of most time spent below the at-large line after having been above the line previously (Kansas State's 38 days in purgatory is second). And of all the non-Stanford, non-UCLA teams in conference, Arizona has had the best run over the last month, winning eight out of their last nine games. Which is a huge turnaround from having gone 2-7 in the nine games previous to that. They are peaking at exactly the right time.

________________

Now in: Arizona
Now out: Southern California

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Host Schools and the Mountain West Tournament

In the Mountain West tournament, there are four teams remaining: conference leader BYU, conference contender TCU, and New Mexico and Utah. If there was a pre-season poll picking the top four in the Mountain West, these teams would probably have been on that list. But New Mexico and Utah have already had to win two games in the staggered-format Mountain West tournament just to get to this point.

Utah, the 5-seed in the Mountain West tournament, is 14-16 this year (7-9 in conference). New Mexico, the 7-seed, is 13-17 and only won five conference games heading into the tournament.

Needless to say, both teams are ineligible for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

But both teams play host to NCAA first and second round games this year. It is common now to have host teams that don't make the NCAA tournament, but the relative geographic isolation of these two schools makes for a real problem in terms of attendance. By comparison the first and second round host site at the University of Virginia, another host school that will not get an at-large bid to the tournament, has the potential to draw a few teams within a couple hundred miles of the site: Hampton, Liberty, Georgetown, West Virginia, Navy, maybe some North Carolina teams. The nearest likely tournament eligible team to Albuquerque is probably Texas Tech, 320 miles away. And besides BYU, the next nearest likely tournament eligible team to Salt Lake City is probably Northern Colorado at nearly 500 miles. And it's not like Bears fans are known for traveling in large numbers for long distances.

But what luck for tournament organizers should New Mexico win the MWC Tournament! A home game for one of the best-attended sites in women's basketball would mean the potential for profit. Even in this less-than-stellar year for the Lady Lobos, the Pit has not hosted a game attended by fewer than 7,000 people. Now all that New Mexico has to do is win two more games...

_______________

Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Small Conference Power Teams

Ain't it funny how the teams from small conferences that always get into the tournament ... always get into the tournament? The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are in the tournament once more despite finishing four games behind conference regular season champ Oral Roberts. South Dakota State beat Oakland in the Summit League championship last night 61-54.

But maybe the perception that power teams from small conferences always get into the tournament ... is merely a perception. UC Santa Barbara has gone to the NCAA tournament for 11 out of the last 14 years. The Gauchos came into the Big West tournament as the top seed. In tournaments past, the top seed would get a two round bye and would only need to win two games in order to win the tournament, like how the Mountain West Conference and the West Coast Conference do it. This year the Big West tournament went back to a more traditional structure where the winner would need three wins regardless of seeding. Unfortunately for UC Santa Barbara, they would not even get one win, as the 8th-seeded Pacific Tigers took the Gauchos out of the tournament early.

And in other conference tournaments, Connecticut was able to wrap up the top #1 seed in the NCAA tournament by beating Notre Dame last night in the Big East tournament championship.


_________________________

Now in: South Dakota State
Now out: Oakland

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

Will Middle Tennessee Get Left Out?

With the exception of the Ivy League, regular seasons are now all over, and many conference tournaments have already concluded. We've already had some conference tournament upsets and at least one spectacular half-court game-winning buzzer-beater (Stetson). But we've also had teams crushing all conference opposition (Marist, Gonzaga).

But Middle Tennessee State isn't among the winners this week. The team is still mourning the loss of Tina Stewart, their junior guard who got stabbed to death by her roommate. The Blue Raiders lost in the first round of the Sun Belt tournament to Arkansas State 72-66. In ordinary situations, Middle Tennessee State would be at risk of being left out of the NCAA tournament with a resumé like theirs (RPI 46, 14-2 in the Sun Belt conference, best wins are James Madison and Kansas State). But I think they have a good chance of landing an at-large bid this year, in part because the selection committee is made up of humans with hearts rather than computers with cold hard data.

_____________________________

Now in: Boston University, TCU, Southern Cal, Samford, UT-Martin, Oakland, Stetson
Now out: UMBC, Duquesne, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, Tennessee Tech, Oral Roberts, East Tennessee State

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 4
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Colonial: 2
Mountain West: 2

It's March: Bubbles are Already A-Poppin'

Sometimes the bubble just takes care of itself.

The beginning of the major conferences' tournaments occured last night with the start of the ACC, Big Ten and SEC tournaments. While the top teams all had byes, many bubble teams had the opportunity to prove themselves worthy of NCAA tournament inclusion. And of those teams, many that were on the backside of the bubble to begin with played their way right out of contention.

In the ACC, Boston College was likely not going to be seventh team in the conference to get a bid, but the Eagles sealed their own fate by losing to upstarts N.C. State 71-70.

In the Big Ten, Wisconsin, a team whose conference record was tied for third best in conference but had a miserable non-conference season and craptacular RPI, lost to the worst team in the Big Ten, Illinois, 63-56.

In the SEC, Arkansas was a team opposite of Wisconsin; that is, a team whose non-conference season was stellar, but only managed to win 6 out of 16 games in the SEC. The Razorbacks popped their own bubble for good by losing to Florida 68-59.

All three of these games were upsets that showed why Boston College, Wisconsin and Arkansas were considered outsiders to the NCAA tournament to begin with. Arkansas coach Tom Collen stated that the Razorbacks "are going to benefit from games like this somewhere down the line." The only remaining stops down the line (besides a Tarheel-style pre-tournament tune-up game against SIU-Edwardsville) are in the WNIT.

EDIT:

Ooh, let's add Michigan to this list. Illinois up and beat the Wolverines this afternoon.
____________________

Now in: Vanderbilt, Old Dominion
Now out: Michigan, Arkansas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Colonial: 2

K-State Finally Wins an Important Game

The penultimate round of regular season games in the Big 12 featured a surprise upset from Bramlage Coliseum: Kansas State gave Texas A&M their only non-Baylor loss of the regular season by beating the Aggies 71-67. And while it was senior night, the star of the game was sophomore Brittany Chambers who scored a career-high 35 points, the most for a Wildcat in a single game since Nicole Ohlde in 2000.

The huge win rocketed the Wildcats up into tournament contention according to the College Women's Hoops S-Factor, which now shows Kansas State in as a #9 seed. Next up for the Wildcats is a winnable game at Kansas on Saturday and the chance to go to a hard-to-deny record of 10-6 in conference, followed by what's likely to be a date with the worst team in the league, Nebraska, to open the Big 12 tournament. Kansas State should now be able to control their own tournament destiny by simply winning the games they should win, something that K-State has done quite well in conference season.

For Texas A&M, the loss meant the drop of one position in the S-Factor, but in reality it just means that their predicted #2 seed is not to be taken for granted. A first-round loss in the Big 12 tournament could result in the loss of that #2 seed.

___________________________

Now in: Kansas State, Texas
Now out: Vanderbilt, Kansas

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 6
Big Ten: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3

An Unusual Night in the Big East

The Big East wrapped up its regular season last night, and what a finale it was! The highly-predictable, highly-stratified Big East experienced its first real bout of entropy of the season. South Florida (2-13 in conference before the game) beat 17th-ranked Georgetown. Cincinnati (1-14 in conference before the game) beat 20th-ranked Marquette. These were the margins of victory in five of the eight Big East games last night: 1, 2, 2, 3, 5.

One game that was not close was West Virginia's win over St. John's, 69-49. One day after dropping out of the AP rankings, and two days after head coach Mike Carey got T-ed up berating a female referee, the Mountaineers finally grabbed a win against a somewhat decent opponent and made it to 8-8 in conference (although they still only have three wins in their last ten games). They had a great run to start the season, and I think they did just enough in conference to keep their spot in the NCAA tournament, although a first round loss to Cincinnati would put that spot in jeopardy. The College Women's Hoops S-Factor puts West Virginia in as a 7-seed.

__________________


Now in: Kansas
Now out: Old Dominion

Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3