Metabracketology 2014

This is my annual metabracketology post, also known as my show-how-much-better-Charlie-Creme-is-at-this-than-me-and-everyone-else,-with-data! post. Creme, ESPN's women's basketball bracketologist, was unusually clairvoyant in 2014, correctly predicting all 64 teams to make the field.

1. Selection of the teams in the field of 64.

Rank		No.	Pct.	Borda count pts.	Paymon pts.
1	Creme's bracket	64	100%	32	192
1	2015 S-Factor	64	100%	32	192
3	My bracket	62	97%	30	186
3	CSM Bracket	62	97%	30	186
5	S-Factor blend	61	95%	28	183
5	S-Factor conf w heavy	61	95%	28	183
5	Massey Rating	61	95%	28	183
5	S-Factor RPI heavy	61	95%	28	183
5	Pilight's Field of 64	61	95%	28	183
5	CJBratings.com composite	61	95%	28	183
5	RealtimeRPI RPI	61	95%	28	183
5	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	61	95%	28	183
5	NCAA RPI	61	95%	28	183
5	Warren Nolan RPI	61	95%	28	183
5	Charlie Burrus	61	95%	28	183
16	SporTheory	60	94%	17	180
17	RealtimeRPI's bracket	59	92%	16	177
17	Omni bracket	59	92%	16	177
17	Sagarin Rating	59	92%	16	177
17	Massey Power Rating	59	92%	16	177
17	Omni Rankings	59	92%	16	177
17	CJBratings.com Win rating	59	92%	16	177
17	RealtimeRPI Power	59	92%	16	177
17	Sagarin GOLDEN_ MEAN	59	92%	16	177
25	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	58	91%	8	174
25	Sonny Moore	58	91%	8	174
27	Stats TPI	57	89%	6	171
28	Warren Nolan NPI	52	81%	5	156
29	WBBState's The State	50	78%	4	150
30	NCAA W-L %	49	77%	3	147
31	Coaches poll	38	59%	2	114
32	AP poll	32	50%	1	96

 

2. Exact seeds: entire field

Rank		No.	Pct.	Borda count pts.	Paymon pts.
1	Creme's bracket	39	60.9%	32	78
2	2015 S-Factor	29	45.3%	31	58
2	NCAA RPI	29	45.3%	31	58
2	Warren Nolan RPI	29	45.3%	31	58
5	CSM Bracket	26	40.6%	28	52
5	S-Factor blend	26	40.6%	28	52
5	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	26	40.6%	28	52
8	S-Factor conf w heavy	25	39.1%	25	50
8	RealtimeRPI RPI	25	39.1%	25	50
8	RealtimeRPI's bracket	25	39.1%	25	50
11	My bracket	23	35.9%	22	46
12	S-Factor RPI heavy	22	34.4%	21	44
12	CJBratings.com composite	22	34.4%	21	44
12	RealtimeRPI Power	22	34.4%	21	44
15	Massey Rating	21	32.8%	18	42
15	Massey Power Rating	21	32.8%	18	42
17	Pilight's Field of 64	20	31.3%	16	40
17	Charlie Burrus	20	31.3%	16	40
17	CJBratings.com Win rating	20	31.3%	16	40
17	Sonny Moore	20	31.3%	16	40
21	SporTheory	19	29.7%	12	38
21	Omni bracket	19	29.7%	12	38
23	Sagarin Rating	17	26.6%	10	34
24	Omni Rankings	15	23.4%	9	30
24	Sagarin GOLDEN_ MEAN	15	23.4%	9	30
24	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	15	23.4%	9	30
27	Coaches poll	13	20.3%	6	26
28	WBBState's The State	11	17.2%	5	22
29	AP poll	10	15.6%	4	20
30	Warren Nolan NPI	8	12.5%	3	16
31	Stats TPI	7	10.9%	2	14
31	NCAA W-L %	7	10.9%	2	14

 

3. Seeds within 1: entire field

Rank		No.	Pct.	Borda count pts.
1	Creme's bracket	58	90.6%	32
2	My bracket	54	84.4%	31
2	2015 S-Factor	54	84.4%	31
4	RealtimeRPI's bracket	52	81.3%	29
5	CSM Bracket	50	78.1%	28
6	NCAA RPI	49	76.6%	27
6	Warren Nolan RPI	49	76.6%	27
6	RealtimeRPI RPI	49	76.6%	27
6	CJBratings.com composite	49	76.6%	27
6	Charlie Burrus	49	76.6%	27
6	SporTheory	49	76.6%	27
12	S-Factor blend	47	73.4%	21
12	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	47	73.4%	21
12	S-Factor conf w heavy	47	73.4%	21
12	S-Factor RPI heavy	47	73.4%	21
12	Massey Power Rating	47	73.4%	21
17	Pilight's Field of 64	46	71.9%	16
17	CJBratings.com Win rating	46	71.9%	16
19	Massey Rating	45	70.3%	14
19	Sagarin Rating	45	70.3%	14
21	RealtimeRPI Power	44	68.8%	12
22	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	42	65.6%	11
23	Omni Rankings	41	64.1%	10
24	Sonny Moore	39	60.9%	9
24	Omni bracket	39	60.9%	9
24	Sagarin GOLDEN_MEAN	39	60.9%	9
27	Stats TPI	31	48.4%	6
28	Coaches poll	28	43.8%	5
29	AP poll	24	37.5%	4
29	Warren Nolan NPI	24	37.5%	4
31	WBBState's The State	21	32.8%	2
32	NCAA W-L %	13	20.3%	1

 

4. Exact seeds: Top 12 seeds
To focus on at-large bid placement

Rank		No.	Pct.	Borda count pts.
1	Creme's bracket	26	54.2%	32
2	2015 S-Factor	22	45.8%	31
3	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	19	39.6%	30
4	S-Factor blend	18	37.5%	29
4	S-Factor conf w heavy	18	37.5%	29
6	My bracket	17	35.4%	27
6	NCAA RPI	17	35.4%	27
6	Warren Nolan RPI	17	35.4%	27
6	CSM Bracket	17	35.4%	27
10	Massey Rating	16	33.3%	23
11	RealtimeRPI RPI	15	31.3%	22
12	RealtimeRPI's bracket	14	29.2%	21
12	S-Factor RPI heavy	14	29.2%	21
12	RealtimeRPI Power	14	29.2%	21
12	Massey Power Rating	14	29.2%	21
12	Pilight's Field of 64	14	29.2%	21
12	Charlie Burrus	14	29.2%	21
18	CJBratings.com composite	13	27.1%	15
18	CJBratings.com Win rating	13	27.1%	15
18	Sonny Moore	13	27.1%	15
18	SporTheory	13	27.1%	15
18	Omni bracket	13	27.1%	15
18	Coaches poll	13	27.1%	15
24	Sagarin Rating	10	20.8%	9
24	AP poll	10	20.8%	9
26	Omni Rankings	9	18.8%	7
27	Sagarin GOLDEN_MEAN	8	16.7%	6
27	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	8	16.7%	6
29	WBBState's The State	5	10.4%	4
29	Warren Nolan NPI	5	10.4%	4
29	Stats TPI	5	10.4%	4
32	NCAA W-L %	4	8.3%	1

 

5. Seeds within 1: top 12 seeds
To focus on at-large bid placement

Rank		No.	Pct.	Borda count pts.
1	Creme's bracket	43	89.6%	32
2	My bracket	40	83.3%	31
2	2015 S-Factor	40	83.3%	31
4	CSM Bracket	37	77.1%	29
5	RealtimeRPI's bracket	36	75.0%	28
5	Charlie Burrus	36	75.0%	28
7	SporTheory	35	72.9%	26
8	NCAA RPI	34	70.8%	25
8	Warren Nolan RPI	34	70.8%	25
8	RealtimeRPI RPI	34	70.8%	25
8	S-Factor RPI heavy	34	70.8%	25
8	CJBratings.com composite	34	70.8%	25
13	S-Factor conf w heavy	33	68.8%	20
13	Pilight's Field of 64	33	68.8%	20
15	S-Factor blend	32	66.7%	18
15	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	32	66.7%	18
15	Massey Power Rating	32	66.7%	18
18	CJBratings.com Win rating	31	64.6%	15
19	RealtimeRPI Power	30	62.5%	14
19	Massey Rating	30	62.5%	14
19	Sagarin Rating	30	62.5%	14
22	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	28	58.3%	11
22	Coaches poll	28	58.3%	11
24	Omni Rankings	27	56.3%	9
25	Sonny Moore	26	54.2%	8
25	Omni bracket	26	54.2%	8
27	Sagarin GOLDEN_MEAN	25	52.1%	6
28	AP poll	24	50.0%	5
29	Stats TPI	20	41.7%	4
30	Warren Nolan NPI	14	29.2%	3
31	WBBState's The State	11	22.9%	2
32	NCAA W-L %	6	12.5%	1

 

6. Exact seeds: top 6 seeds
To focus on the best teams, which generally get the most attention, and to provide an accurate comparison with the AP and Coaches polls.

Rank		No.	Pct.	Borda count pts.
1	Creme's bracket	14	58.3%	32
2	S-Factor blend	12	50.0%	31
2	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	12	50.0%	31
2	S-Factor conf w heavy	12	50.0%	31
5	My bracket	11	45.8%	28
5	2015 S-Factor	11	45.8%	28
7	CSM Bracket	10	41.7%	26
7	RealtimeRPI's bracket	10	41.7%	26
7	RealtimeRPI Power	10	41.7%	26
7	Pilight's Field of 64	10	41.7%	26
7	Coaches poll	10	41.7%	26
12	Massey Rating	9	37.5%	21
12	S-Factor RPI heavy	9	37.5%	21
12	Sonny Moore	9	37.5%	21
12	AP poll	9	37.5%	21
16	Charlie Burrus	8	33.3%	17
16	CJBratings.com Win rating	8	33.3%	17
18	Massey Power Rating	7	29.2%	15
18	Omni Rankings	7	29.2%	15
20	NCAA RPI	6	25.0%	13
20	Warren Nolan RPI	6	25.0%	13
20	RealtimeRPI RPI	6	25.0%	13
20	CJBratings.com composite	6	25.0%	13
20	Omni bracket	6	25.0%	13
25	Sagarin Rating	5	20.8%	8
25	WBBState's The State	5	20.8%	8
25	Stats TPI	5	20.8%	8
28	SporTheory	4	16.7%	5
28	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	4	16.7%	5
28	Warren Nolan NPI	4	16.7%	5
28	NCAA W-L %	4	16.7%	5
32	Sagarin GOLDEN_MEAN	3	12.5%	1

 

7. Seeds within 1: top 6 seeds
To focus on the best teams, which generally get the most attention, and to provide an accurate comparison with the AP and Coaches polls.

Rank				No.		Pct.	Borda count pts.
1	Creme's bracket		24		100.0%		32
2	My bracket	23			95.8%		31
3	2015 S-Factor	22			91.7%		30
4	CSM Bracket	21			87.5%		29
4	RealtimeRPI's bracket	21			87.5%		29
4	Pilight's Field of 64	21			87.5%		29
4	Charlie Burrus	21			87.5%		29
8	S-Factor blend	20			83.3%		25
8	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	20			83.3%		25
8	S-Factor conf w heavy	20			83.3%		25
8	S-Factor RPI heavy	20			83.3%		25
8	RealtimeRPI Power	20			83.3%		25
8	CJBratings.com Win rating	20			83.3%		25
8	SporTheory	20			83.3%		25
8	Coaches poll	20			83.3%		25
8	AP poll	20			83.3%		25
17	NCAA RPI	19			79.2%		16
17	Warren Nolan RPI	19			79.2%		16
17	RealtimeRPI RPI	19			79.2%		16
17	CJBratings.com composite	19			79.2%		16
17	Massey Power Rating	19			79.2%		16
22	Sonny Moore	18			75.0%		11
22	Sagarin Rating	18			75.0%		11
22	Omni Rankings	18			75.0%		11
25	Massey Rating	17			70.8%		8
25	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	17			70.8%		8
27	Sagarin GOLDEN_MEAN	16			66.7%		6
28	Omni bracket	15			62.5%		5
29	Stats TPI	14			58.3%		4
30	Warren Nolan NPI	12			50.0%		3
31	WBBState's The State	9			37.5%		2
32	NCAA W-L %	6			25.0%		1

 

Charlie Creme was the best in all seven categories that I have used as evaluation metrics, and his excellent predictions gave him a perfect score. This is the first perfect score I've seen since I started evaluating bracket predictions and ranking methods in 2010 (though Creme came close in 2010, when he was second place in only one category, seeds within 1: top 12).

	Borda count points	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Sum
1	Creme's bracket	32	32	32	32	32	32	32	224
2	2015 S-Factor	32	31	31	31	31	28	30	214
3	My bracket	30	22	31	27	31	28	31	200
4	CSM Bracket	30	28	28	27	29	26	29	197
5	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	28	28	21	30	18	31	25	181
6	S-Factor blend	28	28	21	29	18	31	25	180
7	S-Factor conf w heavy	28	25	21	29	20	31	25	179
8	RealtimeRPI's bracket	16	25	29	21	28	26	29	174
9	NCAA RPI	28	31	27	27	25	13	16	167
9	Warren Nolan RPI	28	31	27	27	25	13	16	167
11	Charlie Burrus	28	16	27	21	28	17	29	166
12	S-Factor RPI heavy	28	21	21	21	25	21	25	162
13	Pilight's Field of 64	28	16	16	21	20	26	29	156
13	RealtimeRPI RPI	28	25	27	22	25	13	16	156
15	CJBratings.com composite	28	21	27	15	25	13	16	145
16	RealtimeRPI Power	16	21	12	21	14	26	25	135
17	SporTheory	17	12	27	15	26	5	25	127
18	Massey Rating	28	18	14	23	14	21	8	126
19	Massey Power Rating	16	18	21	21	18	15	16	125
20	CJBratings.com Win rating	16	16	16	15	15	17	25	120
21	Coaches poll	2	6	5	15	11	26	25	90
22	Sonny Moore	8	16	9	15	8	21	11	88
23	Sagarin Rating	16	10	14	9	14	8	11	82
24	Omni bracket	16	12	9	15	8	13	5	78
25	Omni Rankings	16	9	10	7	9	15	11	77
26	AP poll	1	4	4	9	5	21	25	69
27	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	8	9	11	6	11	5	8	58
28	Sagarin GOLDEN_ MEAN	16	9	9	6	6	1	6	53
29	Stats TPI	6	2	6	4	4	8	4	34
30	WBBState's The State	4	5	2	4	2	8	2	27
30	Warren Nolan NPI	5	3	4	4	3	5	3	27
32	NCAA W-L %	3	2	1	1	1	5	1	14

 

This is a table that sums the number of correct teams under each of the seven criteria above. It shows basically the same thing: Charlie Creme was miles better than anyone else at bracket prediction in 2014.

	Sum of points	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Sum
1	Creme's bracket	64	39	58	26	43	14	24	268
2	2015 S-Factor	64	29	54	22	40	11	22	242
3	My bracket	62	23	54	17	40	11	23	230
4	CSM Bracket	62	26	50	17	37	10	21	223
5	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	61	26	47	19	32	12	20	217
5	RealtimeRPI's bracket	59	25	52	14	36	10	21	217
7	S-Factor blend	61	26	47	18	32	12	20	216
7	S-Factor conf w heavy	61	25	47	18	33	12	20	216
9	NCAA RPI	61	29	49	17	34	6	19	215
9	Warren Nolan RPI	61	29	49	17	34	6	19	215
11	Charlie Burrus	61	20	49	14	36	8	21	209
11	RealtimeRPI RPI	61	25	49	15	34	6	19	209
13	S-Factor RPI heavy	61	22	47	14	34	9	20	207
14	Pilight's Field of 64	61	20	46	14	33	10	21	205
15	CJBratings.com composite	61	22	49	13	34	6	19	204
16	SporTheory	60	19	49	13	35	4	20	200
17	RealtimeRPI Power	59	22	44	14	30	10	20	199
17	Massey Rating	61	21	45	16	30	9	17	199
17	Massey Power Rating	59	21	47	14	32	7	19	199
20	CJBratings.com Win rating	59	20	46	13	31	8	20	197
21	Sagarin Rating	59	17	45	10	30	5	18	184
22	Sonny Moore	58	20	39	13	26	9	18	183
23	Omni bracket	59	19	39	13	26	6	15	177
24	Omni Rankings	59	15	41	9	27	7	18	176
25	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	58	15	42	8	28	4	17	172
26	Sagarin GOLDEN_MEAN	59	15	39	8	25	3	16	165
27	Coaches poll	38	13	28	13	28	10	20	150
28	Stats TPI	57	7	31	5	20	5	14	139
29	AP poll	32	10	24	10	24	9	20	129
30	Warren Nolan NPI	52	8	24	5	14	4	12	119
31	WBBState's The State	50	11	21	5	11	5	9	112
32	NCAA W-L %	49	7	13	4	6	4	6	89

 

Finally, this table uses the Paymon method to evaluate the brackets and ranking systems. This is the method used by The Bracket Project to evaluate men's basketball tournament predictions. Once again, Charlie Creme blew every other prediction away.

	Paymon method	1	2	3	Sum
1	Creme's bracket	192	78	58	328
2	2015 S-Factor	192	58	54	304
3	NCAA RPI	183	58	49	290
3	Warren Nolan RPI	183	58	49	290
5	CSM Bracket	186	52	50	288
6	My bracket	186	46	54	286
7	Sagarin ELO_SCORE	183	52	47	282
7	S-Factor blend	183	52	47	282
7	RealtimeRPI RPI	183	50	49	282
10	S-Factor conf w heavy	183	50	47	280
11	RealtimeRPI's bracket	177	50	52	279
12	CJBratings.com composite	183	44	49	276
13	S-Factor RPI heavy	183	44	47	274
14	Charlie Burrus	183	40	49	272
15	Massey Rating	183	42	45	270
16	Pilight's Field of 64	183	40	46	269
17	SporTheory	180	38	49	267
18	Massey Power Rating	177	42	47	266
19	RealtimeRPI Power	177	44	44	265
20	CJBratings.com Win rating	177	40	46	263
21	Sagarin Rating	177	34	45	256
22	Omni bracket	177	38	39	254
23	Sonny Moore	174	40	39	253
24	Omni Rankings	177	30	41	248
25	Sagarin PURE_POINTS	174	30	42	246
25	Sagarin GOLDEN_ MEAN	177	30	39	246
27	Stats TPI	171	14	31	216
28	Warren Nolan NPI	156	16	24	196
29	WBBState's The State	150	22	21	193
30	NCAA W-L %	147	14	13	174
31	Coaches poll	114	26	28	168
32	AP poll	96	20	24	140

 

A note on the terminology used in the tables above. There are four different S-Factors used in those tables.

"S-Factor blend" was the ranking I published on this site throughout the season last year, using an algorithm last modified in 2012.
"S-Factor conf w heavy" was an unpublished tweak of that algorithm that weighted conference win-loss record and conference strength more heavily.
"S-Factor RPI heavy" was an unpublished tweak of that algorithm that weighted RPI more heavily.
"2015 S-Factor" is the new algorithm I will be using this year. I will explain more in a future post.

"My bracket" is the bracket prediction I published on my bracket prediction page.