The Big East wrapped up its regular season last night, and what a finale it was! The highly-predictable, highly-stratified Big East experienced its first real bout of entropy of the season. South Florida (2-13 in conference before the game) beat 17th-ranked Georgetown. Cincinnati (1-14 in conference before the game) beat 20th-ranked Marquette. These were the margins of victory in five of the eight Big East games last night: 1, 2, 2, 3, 5.
One game that was not close was West Virginia's win over St. John's, 69-49. One day after dropping out of the AP rankings, and two days after head coach Mike Carey got T-ed up berating a female referee, the Mountaineers finally grabbed a win against a somewhat decent opponent and made it to 8-8 in conference (although they still only have three wins in their last ten games). They had a great run to start the season, and I think they did just enough in conference to keep their spot in the NCAA tournament, although a first round loss to Cincinnati would put that spot in jeopardy. The College Women's Hoops S-Factor puts West Virginia in as a 7-seed.
__________________
Now in: Kansas
Now out: Old Dominion
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 6
SEC: 6
Big Ten: 6
Big 12: 6
PAC-10: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Showing posts with label Marquette. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marquette. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Why the S-Factor is Cramming Ten Teams In From One Conference
The College Women's Hoops S-Factor shows ten of the sixteen Big East teams getting into the dance: Connecticut, DePaul, Georgetown, West Virginia, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's and Rutgers. This, frankly, is absurd.
The Big East chart shows the rigid stratification of the conference. Basically the Big East can be divided into 4 groups: the Connecticut Group, the Ranked Group, the Middling Group and the Big Least.
The Big Least is composed of six teams (Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and South Florida) who have gone a combined 6-43 in conference games. They have achieved zero wins against teams from the other groups.
The Connecticut Group is composed of three teams (Connecticut, DePaul, Notre Dame) who have combined for only one loss in an intragroup game (Notre Dame losing to Connecticut).
The most mixing occurs in the two middle groups; the Ranked Group (Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia), and the Middling Group (Rutgers, St. John's, Syracuse, Louisville). The Middling Group has achieved two wins over the Ranked Group (Rutgers over Georgetown, Syracuse over Marquette). These two wins have kept the Middling Group as a whole above the at-large bubble line in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.
Here is a table of the relative records against each other:
Besides those two wins previously discussed, there is no intergroup mixing of wins. And it is this oddly stratified configuration that is tricking the S-Factor into thinking there will be ten Big East teams in the tournament.
Now in: BYU, St. John's
Now out: Wyoming, Boston College
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
The Big East chart shows the rigid stratification of the conference. Basically the Big East can be divided into 4 groups: the Connecticut Group, the Ranked Group, the Middling Group and the Big Least.
The Big Least is composed of six teams (Villanova, Providence, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and South Florida) who have gone a combined 6-43 in conference games. They have achieved zero wins against teams from the other groups.
The Connecticut Group is composed of three teams (Connecticut, DePaul, Notre Dame) who have combined for only one loss in an intragroup game (Notre Dame losing to Connecticut).
The most mixing occurs in the two middle groups; the Ranked Group (Georgetown, Marquette, West Virginia), and the Middling Group (Rutgers, St. John's, Syracuse, Louisville). The Middling Group has achieved two wins over the Ranked Group (Rutgers over Georgetown, Syracuse over Marquette). These two wins have kept the Middling Group as a whole above the at-large bubble line in the College Women's Hoops S-Factor.
Here is a table of the relative records against each other:
| C.Gr. | R.Gr. | M.Gr. | Least | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut Group | 1-1 | 4-0 | 7-0 | 13-0 |
| Ranked Group | 0-4 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 11-0 |
| Middling Group | 0-7 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 13-0 |
| The Big Least | 0-13 | 0-11 | 0-13 | 6-6 |
Besides those two wins previously discussed, there is no intergroup mixing of wins. And it is this oddly stratified configuration that is tricking the S-Factor into thinking there will be ten Big East teams in the tournament.
Now in: BYU, St. John's
Now out: Wyoming, Boston College
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
PAC-10: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
The Outliers
It's hard to tell which teams selected by the College Women's Hoops S-Factor are mistakes and which ones are legitimate since there is only one confirmation test per year. But when one compares the S-Factor to other rankings generated by humans and computers, one gets a sense of where the outliers are.
Clearly the S-Factor is having problems seeing the merit of teams from mid-major conferences. The Horizon League's Wisconsin-Green Bay is ranked in both national polls, Charlie Creme's week old bracket has them in as a 5 seed, and a collection of models (Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Steven Jens and Sonny Moore) puts the Phoenix somewhere around a 7 seed. Yet the S-Factor huffily bestows an automatic-only seed of 11. Bowling Green, out of the Mid America Conference, winners of 14 games in a row and very close to being nationally ranked, is getting an average of a 7 seed by the computers (Steven Jens thinks they're the 16th best team in the country). But the S-Factor deigns only to give them a 12 seed, and nothing at all if they lose their conference tournament.
There are also teams that the S-Factor is infatuated with. Michigan, despite dropping their last two games, shows up high in the S-Factor with a predicted 6 seed, which is 4 seeds higher than the nearest outside computer model (Sagarin) would have them. (The S-Factor really loves those wins over Ohio State and Iowa). Creme's bracket doesn't even show Michigan in the "last four out" category. Another Big Ten team much loved by the S-Factor is Penn State, a team both humans and computers agree should be seeded somewhere south of an 8 seed (if at all). But the S-Factor puts them as the highest of the 5 seeds.
Some teams that seem too highly ranked with regard to human polls and brackets are actually mostly in line with other computer rankings. DePaul (2), Marquette (3), Texas Tech (5) and Louisville (7) are all teams that get more respect from number crunching than from human prognosticators, and the S-Factor sides more with the computers. The S-Factor also agrees with computers when humans appear to be overly sympathetic to some teams, like Ohio State (9), Kentucky (9), Syracuse (10) and Boston College (10).
And then there's the curious case of Oklahoma. Charlie Creme has them as a 6 seed. The polls would have them in with a 4 seed. Looks good for them, right? But according to RPI, the Sooners aren't anywhere near being in the tournament. The computer models Massey, Sagarin, and Jens all put them about where the S-Factor does around the mid-forties. But Sonny Moore ranks them 12th in the country, which would correspond to a 3 seed. Crazy!
Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
Clearly the S-Factor is having problems seeing the merit of teams from mid-major conferences. The Horizon League's Wisconsin-Green Bay is ranked in both national polls, Charlie Creme's week old bracket has them in as a 5 seed, and a collection of models (Massey Ratings, Sagarin Ratings, Steven Jens and Sonny Moore) puts the Phoenix somewhere around a 7 seed. Yet the S-Factor huffily bestows an automatic-only seed of 11. Bowling Green, out of the Mid America Conference, winners of 14 games in a row and very close to being nationally ranked, is getting an average of a 7 seed by the computers (Steven Jens thinks they're the 16th best team in the country). But the S-Factor deigns only to give them a 12 seed, and nothing at all if they lose their conference tournament.
There are also teams that the S-Factor is infatuated with. Michigan, despite dropping their last two games, shows up high in the S-Factor with a predicted 6 seed, which is 4 seeds higher than the nearest outside computer model (Sagarin) would have them. (The S-Factor really loves those wins over Ohio State and Iowa). Creme's bracket doesn't even show Michigan in the "last four out" category. Another Big Ten team much loved by the S-Factor is Penn State, a team both humans and computers agree should be seeded somewhere south of an 8 seed (if at all). But the S-Factor puts them as the highest of the 5 seeds.
Some teams that seem too highly ranked with regard to human polls and brackets are actually mostly in line with other computer rankings. DePaul (2), Marquette (3), Texas Tech (5) and Louisville (7) are all teams that get more respect from number crunching than from human prognosticators, and the S-Factor sides more with the computers. The S-Factor also agrees with computers when humans appear to be overly sympathetic to some teams, like Ohio State (9), Kentucky (9), Syracuse (10) and Boston College (10).
And then there's the curious case of Oklahoma. Charlie Creme has them as a 6 seed. The polls would have them in with a 4 seed. Looks good for them, right? But according to RPI, the Sooners aren't anywhere near being in the tournament. The computer models Massey, Sagarin, and Jens all put them about where the S-Factor does around the mid-forties. But Sonny Moore ranks them 12th in the country, which would correspond to a 3 seed. Crazy!
Now in: (same as yesterday)
Now out: (same as yesterday)
Conferences with multiple bids:
Big East: 10
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
PAC-10: 5
SEC: 4
Atlantic 10: 2
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